Top 5 things Kansans should watch in a Trump administration

President Donald Trump is joined by the Congressional leadership and his family as he formally signs his cabinet nominations into law, Friday, Jan. 20, 2107, in the President's Room of the Senate on Capitol Hill in Washington From left are, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., Sen. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., Donald Trump Jr., Vice President Mike Pence, Jared Kushner, Karen Pence, Ivanka Trump, Melania Trump, Barron Trump, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, R-Wis., Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, D-Calif., House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, Pool)

With every change of administrations in Washington, D.C. comes an expectation of change. For some, those expectations are wrapped in a sense of hope and optimism; and for others, depending on one’s political leanings, they’re wrapped with fear and apprehension.

That was certainly true eight years ago when Barack Obama was sworn into office following his “hope and change” campaign. And it is perhaps even more true now with the inauguration of his successor, Donald J. Trump, as the 45th President of the United States.

Many of the changes Trump has suggested would affect Americans, and perhaps the world, uniformly. But the state of Kansas and its economy have particular issues and concerns at stake, and so I’ve tried to put together a list of the top five policy areas in which Kansas may have a unique set of interests.


No. 1: Medicaid and Obamacare

I list this first, only because it’s at the top of many state lawmakers’ agenda this year, and because it has been suddenly thrust into front-page news in recent days.

One of the highlights of the Trump campaign was his oft-repeated promise to repeal and replace Obamacare, formally known as the Affordable Care Act, which he has dubbed “a disaster.”

“On day one of the Trump Administration, we will ask Congress to immediately deliver a full repeal of Obamacare,” Trump stated on his campaign website.

According to the Department of Health and Human Services, 96,304 Kansans signed up for subsidized individual health policies this year through the exchange markets that were set up under the ACA, and another 150,000 or so could receive KanCare coverage if Kansas takes advantage of the Medicaid expansion provisions of the ACA.

Earlier this week, a Medicaid expansion bill was introduced in the Kansas House, with apparent bipartisan support. But on Thursday, the day before Trump’s inauguration, Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer was in Washington meeting with congressional committees about the future of Medicaid in the Trump administration.

What Colyer and many others expect is that the Trump administration and Republican-led Congress want to convert Medicaid into a block grant program, presumably one with fewer requirements attached. Currently, the federal government pays a share of the actual cost of the program in each state, and there are a whole host of requirements each state must meet in order to qualify for the funding.

Kansas is currently operating under a waiver of those rules so it can run Medicaid in Kansas, now known as KanCare, as a privatized, managed care system. That means private insurance companies that now run the program are paid a flat rate for each beneficiary, known as a “capitated rate,” and they are responsible for managing the care of each patient.

But the state’s application to renew that waiver for another year, taking it through 2018, was denied this week after federal officials cited the program for multiple deficiencies, many of which they said threatened the health and well-being of Medicaid patients.

Colyer brushed that off as being politically motivated and a “parting shot by the Obama administration on its way out the door.”

But it will be up to the new Trump administration to decide (a) whether Kansas can continue operating a privatized managed care system, and (b) whether it will be allowed to expand Medicaid as current law allows, assuming for the sake of argument that an expansion bill can get through the Legislature and over an almost-certain veto by Gov. Sam Brownback.


No. 2: Climate change and clean power

As a candidate, Trump dismissed the science of climate change as a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese. And in the Kansas Legislature there are still a number of climate change skeptics in leadership positions, including Sen. Rob Olson, R-Olathe, who chairs the Senate Utilities Committee.

But whether one agrees or disagrees with climate change science, there is no escaping the fact that the shift to clean, renewable energy has benefited the Kansas economy. In his State of the State address Jan. 10, Brownback himself touted the fact that there has been $10 billion worth of investment in wind energy projects in Kansas. Wind energy now accounts for roughly 25 percent of all the electricity produced in Kansas.

That percentage is set to grow even more under the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan, which would require Kansas to reduce its carbon emissions from power plants over the next several years. Republicans in the Kansas congressional delegation, and many in the Kansas Legislature, have been sharply critical of the CPP, and Trump has promised to end it.

That could mean a lot to Kansans, especially farmers and ranchers who stand to make money — more than they can make growing corn or cattle these days — leasing portions of their land to wind energy companies.

The Hill reported Friday that the White House web page about climate change was taken down less than an hour after he was sworn in.


No. 3: Agriculture and trade policy

Trump won 57 percent of the vote in Kansas in 2016, and much of that was due to support he received in rural Kansas.

Warren Parker, director of policy communications for the Kansas Farm Bureau, said Kansas farmers are optimistic about the Trump administration for one big reason: his promise to overhaul and reduce government regulations.

“One of the main things, a positive, is looking to overturn some of this horrendously overreaching regulation that has come in recent years,” he said, noting in particular the Obama administration’s policies regarding Waters of the United States, or WOTUS rules that some say would have extended the reach of the Clean Water Act into drainage ditches and farm ponds, as well as actions to protect habitat of the lesser prairie chicken.

But while farmers are optimistic about regulatory reform, Parker said KFB is taking more of a wait-and-see attitude when it comes to Trump’s trade policies.

That’s especially important to the state’s agriculture industry as a whole, which exported more than $3.3 billion worth of products in 2015, with Mexico accounting for one-fourth of those exports, or $842 million worth.

Japan was second on the Kansas ag export list at $470 million, followed by Canada at $436 million and China at $403 million.

During a presidential candidate debate in September, Trump referred to the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, which covers trade between the United States, Canada and Mexico, as “the worst trade deal maybe ever signed anywhere, but certainly ever signed in this country,” and he has vowed to withdraw from it.

He also made similar comments about the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP, and said he wants to replace those global and regional agreements with “bilateral” trade agreements negotiated one country at a time.

Finally, he has openly accused China of currency manipulation in order to lower the cost of its own exports, raising the prospect of U.S. retaliation that some fear could lead to an all-out trade war.

“I think the new president is not so much against trade or for using it as a weapon, but he does want to make sure it’s working more for the U.S.,” Parker said. “We’ll see how that works out.” But he went on to say that Trump, “has promised agriculture a seat at the table (in any new trade negotiations) and we plan to be there.”

“There is no doubt that agricultural trade and the ability to export commodities will be extremely important, but we do look forward to working with the new president in looking at how those (trade agreements) were put together and where we go from here,” Parker said.


No. 4: Highways and infrastructure

One issue that Trump has said Republicans and Democrats should work together on is making a massive new investment in public infrastructure. He has proposed a $1 trillion program in upgrading the nation’s roads, bridges, tunnels and airports.

That will be of particular interest in Kansas, where an estimated $2 billion has been swept out of the state highway fund in the last five years to shore up the state general fund in the wake of massive revenue shortfalls.

It remains to be seen, though, how far that idea will go in a Republican-controlled Congress. Although Trump hasn’t been specific about the plan, he and others on his team have talked about financing much of it with private investments and incentives, with private companies bidding on projects and then recovering their costs either through tolls or state payments.

That could mean a lot more highways and bridges in Kansas will require tolls in the future, something Kansans seem to tolerate on the Turnpike, but certainly not anything they’re particularly fond of.


No. 5: Immigration

No conversation about Donald Trump would be complete without mentioning his stance on immigration. He launched his campaign in June 2015 with the now-famous remark: “When Mexico sends it people, they’re not sending their best. They’re not sending you. They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.”

He followed that up in December 2015][11] by saying he also wanted a, “total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country’s representatives can figure out what is going on.”

Since then, his statements have varied whenever asked what, exactly, he would do about Mexican and Muslim immigration. But whatever actions he takes, they are bound to have a significant impact in Kansas, especially in areas like southwest Kansas where the meatpacking industry is heavily reliant on immigrant labor, as well as in university towns like Lawrence where international students from all parts of the globe are a significant feature in campus culture.