Moody’s forecasts sluggish revenue growth in Kansas

Moody’s Investors Service said this week that most states can expect their revenues to continue growing through the end of this year, but at a slower pace than last year. And it said Kansas revenue growth may be more sluggish than most.

That won’t immediately affect the state’s bond rating, but the rating agency did say that in Kansas and a few other states in similar positions, “a slower growth trend is an unwelcome but not insurmountable challenge that will make budgetary decisions more difficult.”

The assessment of Kansas was based largely on the state’s own revenue forecasts that were updated in April, but the report also shows how the state’s fiscal condition compares with other states’.

The states most in trouble this year are the ones most reliant on the energy sector, such as Louisiana, Oklahoma, New Mexico and North Dakota, Moody’s said. Those poised to do best this year are clustered in the western United States, led by California, Colorado, Oregon and Utah, states Moody’s cited as having “an advantageous industrial base, a dynamic demographic profile and a well-educated workforce.”

But Kansas, Connecticut and Rhode Island were categorized as “laggards” among non-energy states where, “poor stock market performance in tax year 2015, a modestly more muted economic environment and cautious spending habits mean that tax receipts are poised for a pullback.”

Specifically, Moody’s noted that employment and income are two of the best predictors of future revenue growth, and Kansas experienced job growth of less than 1 percent from March 2015 to March 2016,

State officials in April lowered their official forecast of revenue receipts for the fiscal year that starts July 1 and predicted taxes flowing into the state general fund would grow only 1.3 percent.

Moody’s last reviewed the state’s credit rating May 3 when it lowered the state’s rating outlook to “negative,” but affirmed its overall rating of Aa2, which is only two notches lower than Aaa, the agency’s highest credit rating.

Factors that it said could eventually lead to a downgrade include “continued underfunding of pension plans and growth in unfunded pension liabilities,” and “failure to adopt measures to increase revenues or decrease expenditures sufficient to restore structural balance.”