Editorial: Better numbers

The state is in financial trouble, but revisions in estimating revenue may help lawmakers do their job.

Give the state of Kansas credit for revising the way it estimates tax revenues. For two consecutive months, the state has exceeded projections, a dramatic improvement over what has been experienced of late.

The Kansas Department of Revenue reported this week that total tax collections in December came in $6.2 million, or 1 percent, higher than the new estimates. Similarly, state revenues came in 0.3 percent higher than estimated in November.

After seeing revenue fall short of expectations for six consecutive months, state budget officials met in November and dramatically lowered the forecast of state revenues. That move resulted in a shortfall of nearly $350 million for the current fiscal year, which began June 30. The budget shortfall grows to $583 million for the fiscal year that begins July 1.

There’s no genius in revising revenue estimates downward, but at least state officials now can have confidence in the projections. The previous revenue estimates were wildly short of reality. Through October, the fourth month of the fiscal year, revenues had already fallen short of the original estimates by $70 million.

The problem with such inaccurate forecasting is that it makes legislators’ work nearly impossible. It’s hard to craft a workable budget without reasonably accurate revenue expectations.

The results from the past two months show legislators can be somewhat confident in the state’s revised forecast.

The state of Kansas’ financial issues are well documented. The state’s reserves are depleted and the economy remains lackluster compared with the rest of the nation. Trickle-down tax policies implemented by the Republican-controlled statehouse during Gov. Sam Brownback’s tenure have driven tax collections downward but haven’t spurred the economic growth advocates promised.

With a pending ruling expected soon on a school funding lawsuit that could require the state to spend hundreds of millions more on K-12 education, lawmakers need to have a good handle on state revenue expectations like never before.

The November and December revenue reports should make lawmakers more comfortable as the 2017 legislative session gets underway. Make no mistake, the revenue challenges haven’t changed, but at least have an accurate idea of how much revenue the state will have this year and next.