Tom Keegan: Kansas’ streak should hit 13

photo by: Nick Krug

Fans in the student section salute the Jayhawks' 12th-straight Big 12 title following their 67-58 win over Texas Tech, Saturday, Feb. 27, 2016 at Allen Fieldhouse.

On paper at least, barring a major, major upset, Kansas University will earn at least a share of the Big 12 basketball title for a remarkable 13th consecutive season.

Sure, basketball games are played on hardwood, not paper, and surprises do happen. For example, not many saw it coming when Kansas State managed to grab a share of the 2012-13 title.

It’s true that Kansas lost as much firepower as anyone, when Perry Ellis used up his eligibility and Wayne Selden Jr. and Brannen Greene declared for the NBA Draft and hired agents. (Cheick Diallo has not yet hired an agent, but Kansas coach Bill Self is on the record that he expects Diallo to stay in the draft.)

It’s also true that nobody has more experienced talent returning than Kansas, and nobody has a better recruiting class.

Next season’s Big 12 won’t feature nearly as many experienced players as this past season. All five first-team selections have moved on, and Iowa State’s Monte Morris and KU’s Frank Mason III are the lone returning second-team selections.

Unless he selects Houston, instead of his other finalists, Kansas and Texas, forward Jarrett Allen will give the Big 12 four freshmen who played in the McDonald’s All-American game. Kansas has two of them — No. 1 recruit Josh Jackson, a wing, and No. 27 (per rivals.com) center Udoka Azubuike. Shooting guard Andrew Jones, who signed with Texas, is the other and was ranked No. 38.

Kansas returns three starters in Mason, Devonté Graham and center Landen Lucas, plus likely sixth man Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk. Either Carlton Bragg Jr. or Allen, if KU lands him, likely would lock down the fifth starting spot.

A look at the five schools that appear to have the best shot at challenging Kansas for the Big 12 title next year:

1 . Baylor: The Bears get no love in the various early Top-25 projections because they don’t have an obvious superstar and lost first-team All-Big 12 forward Taurean Prince. What Baylor does have is depth, size, athleticism and experience. Johnathan Motley uses his length to do a little bit of everything. He averaged 11.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1.1 blocks in just 20.9 minutes per game last season. Jo Acuil, a 7-foot juco transfer who missed last season for medical reasons, gives Baylor another shot-blocker. Ishmail Wainright’s a tough all-around player, and Al Freeman has the potential to develop into a big scorer.

The Bears are underrated. Still, it’s difficult to picture them knocking Kansas off the throne.

2 . Texas: The Longhorns took a big hit when Isaiah Taylor decided to declare for the NBA Draft and hire an agent. Texas already had lost Cameron Ridley, Prince Ibeh, DeMarcus Holland, Javan Felix and Connor Lammert. Eric Davis and Kerwin Roach are terrific athletes, and Shaquille Cleare gives the Longhorns a big body, but they will rely too heavily on freshmen (three top-100 recruits so far), never ideal for a title contender.

3 . Oklahoma: Buddy Hield, Isaiah Cousins and Ryan Spangler are gone from the Final Four team. Defender deluxe Khadeem Lattin on the inside and Jordan Woodard on the perimeter give the Sooners a nice 1-2 punch, but depth is a concern. Guard Kameron McGusty, the nation’s No. 43-ranked recruit, will get a chance to show what he can do right away.

4 . West Virginia: Jaysean Paige, the Mountaineers’ best perimeter player and scorer, and post player Devin Williams, who declared for the draft and hired an agent, are gone, but Bob Huggins’ team that plays an unconventional, in-your-face style will remain a tough out because of how relentlessly they compete. Guards Daxter Miles and Tarik Phillip will keep them in games.

5 . Iowa State: Morris has a shot at Big 12 Player of the Year honors. He’s a hard-to-guard scoring point guard and is joined by another potentially big scorer in forward Deonte Burton.