photo by: John Young

Kansas coach David Beaty meets with his quarterbacks during the first day of spring practice on Sunday, March 6, 2016, at the practice fields north of Memorial Stadium.

The verdict is in, and the bottom line has not changed. For the second year in a row, the folks in Las Vegas do not seem to have much faith in Kansas University football.

Last week, the Vegas-based South Point sportsbook was the first to release its win total wagering numbers for all 128 FBS college football programs. Just four of them had a number below three.

Kansas, at 1.5 wins — the same over/under number it had entering the 2015 season — was one of those, and the Jayhawks were the only team in America to receive a number below 2.

North Texas (2), Charlotte (2.5) and UMass (2.5) were the programs that joined the Jayhawks at the bottom of the list. According to South Point Race & Sportsbook director Chris Andrews, there’s a lot more than just recent success, or lack thereof, that goes into determining a team’s number before each season.

Andrews, a veteran bookmaker who was hired by South Point in February, determines the win total by keeping extensive power rankings based on 16 data points. Included among them are experience, strength of schedule and various offensive and defensive statistics, and Andrews also factors in outside influences, which he refers to as “noise.” Noise includes everything from obscure stats such as how well a team gets early first downs to more monumental factors like coaching changes or a significant recruiting impact.

“It’s not a pure math model,” Andrews said. “But it’s become about as scientific as it can get it. But that tells you about the past more than the future. So I also follow all the things that go into college football — kids graduate, changes on the staff, recruits come in — and I try to follow that as close as possible. But that’s where you kind of lose the science of it, and you have to make more objective judgements.”

One of the biggest factors that helps Andrews determine his numbers is offensive-line play. He studies the stats to see which programs field quality offensive lines and also looks at returning linemen with great interest.

“That’s usually the first thing I look at, even before, ‘Is the quarterback coming back?'” Andrews said. “Of course, the strength of the conference they play in has a lot to do with those numbers. Offensive-line play is something I love to look at because I think it’s probably one of the most overlooked things by handicappers.”

Even that, however, requires some extra thought. Take the Jayhawks, for instance. Second-year coach David Beaty is returning three starters up front from the final depth chart of 2015 and six offensive linemen total who started at one point or another last season. However, Andrews’ extra thought outweighs all of that returning experience when he recalls that Kansas was 0-12 in 2015.

Andrews also said common sense plays a role in examining offensive-line play. Take, for instance, the case of mid-major Ohio vs. national title contender Ohio State.

“If Ohio’s O-line dominates the MAC, that doesn’t mean they’re the best offensive line in the country,” Andrews said. “Ohio’s number could be huge, but I know in my head they’re not as good as Ohio State’s offensive line.”

After factoring in all of that, and more, Andrews runs the numbers through game simulations to get the win probability for each team during each game of its 12-game schedule. That’s where things get easy. From there, he simply adds those win probabilities together and rounds to the nearest half to get the final number.

A simulation that produces a pick ’em point spread results in a half a win for each side, while a lock results in one win, and heavy underdogs gather minimal points toward their final number.

According to Andrews’ numbers, KU picked up .94 of its 1.5 over/under number in the Sept. 3 opener against Rhode Island. The next highest win probability for the Jayhawks’ this season, according to Andrews’ numbers? Week 2 vs. Ohio at .20 and Week 11 vs. Iowa State at .14.

“You better win that Rhode Island game,” Andrews said, speaking hypothetically to KU. “Because if you don’t, you’re not gonna find two more wins on that schedule.”

Because teams who struggle one year often respond the following year with surprise or bounce-back seasons, Andrews said it was far easier to predict win/loss numbers for college football’s top-rated teams than the teams at the bottom.

“Even if you’re wrong, there’s gonna be a pretty a tight range of what the outcome will be, at least in peoples’ minds,” he said. “I think we know that, in sports, anything can happen.”

And that, for bookmakers like Andrews, makes this entire exercise rather stressful.

“Guys ask me all the time, ‘Are you worried about this, are you worried about that?'” Andrews began. “Well, I’m worried about everything. I do let the numbers speak for themselves, but I also realize that crazy things can happen.”