The Lawrence Parks and Recreation Department will take to the City Commission on Tuesday a proposed plan for dealing with the anticipated emerald ash borer infestation — a scourge that is likely to cause the death of thousands of ash trees and cost the city millions over the next decade.

A suggested plan of action includes treating ash trees in the public right-of-way starting in early 2016 and beginning tree removal in summer 2016. Costs for treating, removing, disposing and replacing the trees through 2023 are estimated at $3 million to $5 million, depending on whether some of the work is contracted.

Commissioners will not be asked to vote on a plan Tuesday. Mark Hecker, assistant director of Parks and Recreation, said his briefing would allow commissioners only to “get a feel for the scope of this and see some of the numbers.”

“Most of this is just getting it in front of the commission for the first time,” Hecker said. “It will take digestion time for them about how we’re going to handle this.”

Hecker said the City Commission might set up a study session to discuss the issue. The city needs to agree to a plan by early 2016, he said.

“By next spring, we need to have a clear idea of what the plan of attack is for the next couple years,” he said. “We’ll start seeing some of the effects in 2017 for sure.”

The Kansas and United States departments of agriculture confirmed the presence of the emerald ash borer in Douglas County in late September.

The insect, which originated in East Asia and has been in Kansas since 2012, lays its eggs on ash trees. Once the larvae hatch, they burrow into the tree’s vascular tissue and begin to feed.

If no measures were taken, the infestation would kill all of the approximately 3,200 ash trees in Lawrence’s public right-of-way over the next 10 years.

Hecker told the Parks and Recreation advisory board earlier this month that the cost could reach up to $6 million. More accurate estimates are laid out in documents commissioners will receive Tuesday.

The first step Parks and Recreation is proposing is counting all of the city’s ash trees. According to a memo sent to commissioners, about one-fourth of the city has already been inventoried.

The memo states there are about 14 million trees of all kinds in Douglas County, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that 1.9 percent are ash.

Lawrence manages a total 30,000 trees in public spaces. Though it’s known that about 3,200 are ash, it’s uncertain how many ash trees are in privately owned spaces.

All of the city’s ash trees will eventually need to be removed, Hecker said.

A timeline provided by Parks and Recreation states that in the spring the City Commission will need to decide whether to increase staffing for the city’s forestry program and have it lead the effort or contract services.

Currently, the forestry program comprises three full-time employees and two or three seasonal staff.

“That’s probably going to have to be the discussion point. ‘Do we contract everything or put more staff on to handle some in-house?'” Hecker said.

According to estimates compiled by Parks and Recreation, the cost of contracting a company for treatment would be about $150 per tree. Tree removal would cost about $750 per tree, and replanting a different species of tree is estimated at $350 per tree. Disposal would cost about $100 per tree.

The total estimate for contracting the work from 2016 through 2023 is about $5.16 million.

With city staff leading the effort, treatment per tree is estimated at $30 and removal at about $100. Replanting different trees is estimated at $150 per tree, and disposing trees would cost $100 per tree.

The total estimate for the city performing most of the work is about $3.27 million.

Another question, Hecker said, is where to dispose of the trees.

Because of the infestation, the city is limited on where the removed trees can be taken.

“We’re quarantined,” Hecker told his department’s advisory board Nov. 10.

“That’s the biggest unknown we have,” he said. “Obviously, the landfill is one option, but the question becomes, ‘Does the landfill continue to take woody plant material if we have 10,000 trees? It’s something to work through.”

That issue needs to be worked out in spring 2016, according to Parks and Recreation’s timeline.

One idea brought up in the memo is for the city to open and operate its own facility to dispose of the trees. The city’s compost facility at 1420 E. 11th St. is too small to handle the volume, the memo states.

The suggested plan calls for community outreach to educate residents on what to do with their ash trees. It also includes a change to city code to include the emerald ash borer as an invasive species and a process through which to enforce dead, hazardous trees.

Next fall is when the city wants to start an accelerated effort to remove ash trees and replace them. The plan will need to be fully funded by 2017, Hecker said.

The City Commission convenes at 5:45 p.m. Tuesday at City Hall, 6 E. Sixth St.