When Vitaly Chernetsky speaks with his family and friends in his Ukrainian hometown of Odessa, he tries to express empathy and offer his support to those living in a country that has been ravaged by violence between its government and Russian-backed separatists for the past year and a half.

“I obviously express my love and concern and tell them I’m ready to help with anything I can, and I ask them to keep me informed,” Chernetsky said.

On Friday, both sides pointed fingers for violating a cease-fire agreement that began a week ago.

Chernetsky, a professor of Slavic languages and literature at Kansas University, said time spent building up to the most recent cease-fire may have simply allowed rebels to gain more ground.

“There was a delay from the date of the agreement and the start of the cease-fire, and it was seen as an opportunity for separatists and Russian supporters to use that time to increase their land grab,” he said.

What will happen next in Ukraine is difficult to predict, Chernetsky said.

Erik Scott, a Russian and Soviet history professor at Kansas University, said the separatists’ next move may be to consolidate their control in Donetsk and Luhansk, the two easternmost regions in Ukraine.

Scott said further establishing control in those two regions and possibly moving south to Russian-controlled Crimea might make strategic sense to the separatists for several reasons.

First, expanding regional dominance would resonate positively with Russian domestic audiences who bemoan the country’s recent lack of international prestige, Scott said. And second, because increased regional control inhibits Ukraine’s ability to act as an independent nation.

“And finally, the eastern portion of Ukraine has several strategic assets that are important, like several old military complexes and natural resources like coal,” Scott said.

One of the few things the Ukrainian government can do to combat the separatists is to attempt to economically develop the portions of the country they do control and to rid those areas of longstanding corruption in an attempt to appease the local residents.

“If they can address those issues and develop economically and draw closer to European living standards, they might be able to show they have more to offer the local populations than Russia does,” he said. “I think their best strategy would be persuading them they would have a better life with Ukraine.”

In order to do that, however, the Ukrainian government will have to combat widespread Russian propaganda meant to spread fear and dissent, Chernetsky said.

“The Russian government is waging a media war or propaganda campaign that makes what the Nazis did in the ’30s look like child’s play,” he said. “Most people get their news from television, and with the older generation there is an inertia of trust in broadcasting coming from Moscow.”

For the time being, it is not immediately clear what will happen in Ukraine, Chernetsky said, although he is pleasantly surprised that many of his family members and acquaintances are becoming increasingly politically and socially active rather than remaining spectators.

“Innocent bystanders can also get injured, so one has to be careful,” he said. “And not let fear and panic seize you.”

Chernetsky added that a year ago Friday, sniper fire from unknown assailants killed many dozens of people in the Ukrainian city of Kiev. The bloody incident was particularly significant and unfortunate for the country, which had rejoiced in having avoided bloodshed in the 20-plus years since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

“In any case, we need to remember the tragedy and the trauma it created for a society that took such pride in its transition after the collapse of the Soviet Union,” he said. “And that Ukraine was dragged into violence not by its own free will, but it was something that was imposed on Ukraine from the outside.”