Editorial: Wishful thinking

There seems to be little hard evidence to justify Gov. Sam Brownback’s optimism on the state economy.

Gov. Sam Brownback’s discussion of the state economy sounds a little like the police officer telling people at the scene of an accident, “Move along, folks; nothing to see here.”

The less Kansans focus on the details of the state economy, the better.

In a recent interview with the Associated Press, Brownback brushed aside any suggestion that painful budget cuts may be necessary to close a projected deficit of about $160 million for the fiscal year that begins next July. He didn’t provide much solid data to back up his optimism, saying simply, “I think we’re going to be in good shape.”

The governor did point to the state’s 4.1 percent unemployment for October. According to the federal labor statistics compiled by a Topeka newspaper, that’s below the national rate (5 percent) and puts Kansas in the middle among its neighbors — below Oklahoma (4.3 percent) and Missouri (5 percent) but above Nebraska (2.9 percent) and Colorado (3.8 percent).

The governor expressed frustration with critics who say that the business tax cuts he helped push into law aren’t achieving the economy boom that Brownback predicted. It’s true that Kansas has more private sector jobs than it did a year ago, but the state still is lagging behind the nation and most of its neighbors in job growth. From the start of the Great Recession in December 2007 through October 2014, private sector jobs in Kansas rose by 2.5 percent and the October 2015 figures represented a 1.1 percent increase from October 2014. Both of those figures ranked Kansas fourth among the five central states. A 0.2 percent jobs increase from September 2015 to October 2015 put Kansas in third place among those five.

Despite those lackluster figures, Brownback continues to say there’s no need to revisit the state’s tax policy, which has shifted the tax burden away from business owners, many with high incomes, onto sales taxes and other “consumption” taxes that fall disproportionately on lower-income Kansans. Brownback wants to stay the course. “I don’t think we ought to be messing with taxes,” he said. “The moral argument is that we give big business a huge tax break, and why do we do it? To get their jobs. What we’re doing here is — it’s the same moral argument — we’re giving small business a tax break and why are you doing it? To get jobs.”

But what happens if those tax breaks aren’t creating new jobs beyond what is attributable to an upswing in the nation’s economy? What if Kansas business people choose to keep the money they gain through the tax breaks for their own personal use while lower-income Kansans pick up the revenue slack? How does that fit with the “moral argument”?

The moral argument is important, but so is the practical impact of the state’s economic policy, including the state’s ability to meet its basic responsibilities for education, transportation and other public services. The governor can keep saying “we’re going to be in good shape,” but it’s hard for Kansans to see that attitude as anything more than wishful thinking.