Opinion: Putin likely to do what he wants, regardless of attempts to punish

The current situation in the Ukraine, especially the movement of Russian troops in the Crimea and the continuing threat that Russian troops may enter other parts of the war-torn country, has been the source of international outrage and, in the United States, calls for action to protect pro-Western factions in Ukraine.

President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry have been quite strong in their denunciation of Russian involvement in Ukraine and Obama has warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that there will be “consequences” for Russia because of its action. Many members of Congress, including Sen. John McCain, have called for a vigorous U.S. response to the Russian actions.

The real question, to my mind, however, is just what kind of response the United States is capable of making.

Through all of the Western denunciations of Russia’s military actions in Ukraine, Putin has appeared to be implacable. Should we be surprised? Russia’s aggression against Georgia several years ago evoked a similar outcry but little practical effect. From Putin’s perspective, his military intervention in Georgia must be seen as a victory.

In fact, Putin has shown time and again that he is willing to confront the U.S. and the European nations and, so far, he has had the better of the confrontations. Should we really wonder that Putin is unafraid of our threats?

Americans are war weary. Our economy has yet to fully recover from the Great Recession of 2008. Just days ago, Defense Secretary Hagel announced sweeping cuts for the military and a further reduction in the number of military personnel. Increasingly, our primary military actions have involved the use of unmanned drones. Putin knows all of this and, perhaps, believes that the U.S. has indeed become a “paper tiger.” I doubt he fears that a drone will fly over the Kremlin and fire a missile at him. And he may well be right.

How far will the U.S. go in its attempts to punish Russia for its military adventures? Certainly, we may impose economic sanctions — sanctions that could hurt the Russian economy. But are such sanctions likely to influence Putin and force him to back down? I doubt it.

Even more interesting, the Russian government has characterized its intervention in Ukraine as an anti-terror operation. It may be difficult for our own government, which has expanded the use of drones to assassinate terrorists and has sanctioned extensive spying — even on foreign leaders of our allies — by the NSA, to criticize another country’s “anti-terrorist” activities as illegal under international law.

In the end, I think that American political and economic realities will stop us from any military intervention in the Ukraine crisis and, once again, unfortunately, Putin will have what he and his supporters will characterize as a victory.