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Archive for Monday, July 28, 2014

Davis leads Brownback in fundraising, polls show undecided race

July 28, 2014

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— Democrat Paul Davis has raised more than $1.1 million for his gubernatorial campaign since January, about 50 percent more than incumbent Republican Gov. Sam Brownback raised over the same period, according to campaign finance reports released Monday.

But Brownback goes into the general election cycle with almost twice as much cash on hand — $2.36 million, compared with $1.32 million for Davis.

Those reports come on the heels of a new SurveyUSA poll showing Davis has widened his lead to 8 percentage points over Brownback, although neither candidate is polling over 50 percent. That poll, released Friday, showed Davis ahead, 48-40 percent.

Both campaigns issued statements casting their finance reports in the most favorable light.

“Kansans are deeply concerned about Sam Brownback’s ‘real live experiment’ and the toll it is taking on our state,” Davis said. “Kansans are worried about their local schools and the future we are leaving our children. Our donors are a clear reflection of the broad, bipartisan support Jill and I have earned during the past year.” Jill Docking is Davis' running mate.

But Brownback's campaign said the Davis camp spent $565,000 during the period without spending any money on TV or radio advertising.

“I guess this is the kind of wasteful, out-of-control spending one would expect from a liberal lawyer from Lawrence,” said spokesman John Milburn, who also lives in Lawrence.

Milburn noted that Brownback's advantage in having far more cash on hand. But that balance includes a $500,000 personal loan that Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer made to the campaign.

According to Davis' report, the Democrat received $1,121,979 from Jan. 1 through July 24. His campaign spent $565,889, leaving it with $1,324,70 in cash on hand.

Brownback's report was not yet available online through the Governmental Ethics Commission's website Monday afternoon. But in a news release, the campaign said it had reported $744,281 in contributions over the same period, with $2.365 million available in cash on hand.

On Dec. 31, the last day of the previous reporting cycle, Colyer made a $500,000 loan to the Brownback campaign, boosting his totals so it initially looked like Brownback had substantially out-raised Davis in 2013. Without that loan, however, the two candidates had very similar contribution totals of a little more than $1 million each.

This week's reports show the Brownback campaign repaid that loan two days later, on Jan. 2. But Colyer made another $500,000 loan on July 23, the next-to-last day of the current reporting cycle.

New polls

The campaign finance reports came as two recent polls showed different trends in the governor's race, although both said neither candidate is drawing 50-percent support from likely voters.

A SurveyUSA poll released Friday, conducted on behalf of KSN-TV in Wichita, showed Davis leading Brownback, 48-40 percent. That's a slightly wider margin than the polling firm found a month ago.

SurveyUSA uses automated phone calls with pre-recorded questions from a local TV news personality. The survey of 1,208 likely voters, including both land line and cell phone users, was conducted July 17-22 and had a margin of sampling error of 2.8 percentage points.

It also showed that among all voters surveyed, education funding ranked as the top issue in the race, with 34 percent of those surveyed saying it was the most important issue to them. And among those voters, 78 percent said they support Davis, compared to 18 percent for Brownback.

Slightly fewer voters, 32 percent, cited tax rates as the most important issue. And among those voters, Brownback led by a narrower margin, 55-34 percent.

Meanwhile, an internet-based poll by the market research firm YouGov found Brownback leading, 47-37 percent.

That poll was on behalf of the New York Times and CBS News. It surveyed a panel of about 100,000 registered voters in all 50 states. Authors of the survey did not report a statistical margin of error.

Secretary of State fundraising

In the GOP primary for Secretary of State, incumbent Kris Kobach remains far ahead of his challenger, Lawrence businessman Scott Morgan, in terms of fundraising.

Contribution reports showed that Kobach started the year with about $124,000 in cash on hand. He raised another $105,000 and spent about $32,000, leaving him with a little less than $200,000 in the final days of the primary campaign.

Morgan's finance report showed that he has raised only $20,925 since entering the race May 21.

“This has never been about cash, this has always been about a cause,” Morgan said in an email statement. “This was always going to be a David and Goliath campaign with Kobach having hundreds of thousands of dollars and my campaign having nothing more than a message of Kansas decency that resonates with hundreds of thousands of Kansans.”

Comments

Raymond Muñoz 4 months, 3 weeks ago

Hey, Kansas. How about we try something different this year? What if instead of voting for the guy with the most money, we vote for a 3rd party candidate like Libertarian candidate Keen Umbehr? It wouldn't hurt to give the "little guy" a chance every once in a while, and hell, some good may even come out of it.

Are you really that happy with the Republicans and Democrats? Apparently, from the 48-40 lead Davis currently has over Brownback, at least 12% of you aren't happy with the status quo. And I'm willing to bet that the other 88% are just voting for the Republican or Democrat because that's just how you happen to vote each and every time. Things will only change when you shake things up.

"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." - Albert Einstein

http://www2.ljworld.com/users/photos/2014/jul/28/276965/

MerriAnnie Smith 4 months, 3 weeks ago

To be honest, Raymond, Libertarians are like Republicans on speed. Their attitude is to demolish all the good that government DOES do and up the spending on the bad things government does.

That is why the Pauls (Rand, etc) can't get anywhere.

People in Kansas are tired of Brownback, but they must know that they'd be in deeper hot water if they went with Libertarians.

Raymond Muñoz 4 months, 3 weeks ago

We'll just have to agree to disagree on that statement. As a Libertarian, I'd only want to demolish the things that go against your freedom and my freedom, the things that restrict a free market, the government interfering with your activities in the bedroom, and my list goes on and on, but I'll just leave it at that.

MerriAnnie Smith 4 months, 3 weeks ago

And you confirmed what I said. "Free" market means corporations are not held to safety standards and reasonable wages for employees. It means laws don't pertain to business. They are FREE to do as they please. And it wouldn't be long before it would be a hard thing to find a job that pays a living wage, and where safety standards for employees wouldn't exist. It means citizens get no say in anything that businesses do that directly affect them.

As I said, Republicans on speed.

Fred Mertz 4 months, 3 weeks ago

Can you name a few of the bad things the government does that the Libertarian party wants to continue?

Brownback is not a choice and neither is Davis. Davis has promised to raise the taxes on the middle class to solve the revenue problem Brownback created.

MerriAnnie Smith 4 months, 2 weeks ago

Can you point to where Davis PROMISED TO RAISE TAXES ON THE MIDDLE CLASS?

The biggest thing Libertarians want to continue that is bad is Defense spending with almost no limitations.

MerriAnnie Smith 4 months, 3 weeks ago

"But Brownback's campaign said the Davis camp spent $565,000 during the period without spending any money on TV or radio advertising."

Brownback's campaign doesn't have to spend money on TV and other advertising methods. The Koch brothers have been paying for their TV commercials for some time, now. I see them almost constantly sometimes. They brag about Brownback and say all our problems are Obama's fault.

I believe they say it's paid for by Americans for Prosperity, one of the organizations the Kochs fund significantly. Is that counted toward campaign funds for Brownback? If not, why not? It is political advertising for a candidate.

MerriAnnie Smith 4 months, 3 weeks ago

Okay, so Colyer padded Brownback's campaign totals out of his own pocket ($500,000) and then he got his money back and now he did it again before the end of this reporting. All to make it appear Brownback is ahead of Davis in campaign contributions. Is that ethical? No.

And Brownback wants to talk about Davis' ability to lead because Davis didn't buy campaign TV commercials. I mean... wth.

I should point out, too, that the $500,000 only represents one voter and he'd be voting for himself, while Davis likely has had mostly small donors, each representing a vote. If Brownback considers that a positive for himself then we can see why his governing up to this point has not been smart.

MerriAnnie Smith 4 months, 3 weeks ago

WARNING. I just researched the yougov survey.

What I found out is that it's based in the UK and it polls from around the world (not just in Kansas). They surveyed across the country, not just in Kansas. Likely most of the people have no idea who Brownback or Davis is. Their incentive for voting anyway would be that they get paid rewards for voting. You have to be a member to vote.

Their poll is not as legit for our purposes as a local but non-partisan survey company.

It's difficult to know if a survey company is partisan. The best way is to participate in the poll and watch how they word the questions. Partisan polls word the questions in such a way as to lead you into a particular answer.

I think it's also notable that the owners of this survey ARE politicians in Britain... conservative politicians.

And finally, all polls up to this point have shown Davis in the lead. The last one with 8 points, which is significant.

For this British poll suddenly that is turned around as if it's some kind of fluke.

I'm waiting for Nate Silver to tell us what it all means. He predicted Obama would win when Mitt Romney's side was polling that Mitt would win.

ThisYouGov poll sounds like a fraud to me.

MerriAnnie Smith 4 months, 3 weeks ago

And the funniest thing... My comment above mentioned YouGov and a YouGov advertisement with a link in it showed up inside my comment. I don't know if other readers can see it or if it's just an ad targeted to me because I mentioned them.

Thomas Bryce 4 months, 3 weeks ago

Yes, we can see it. It is part of the programming on this site. Has happened to me also on some subjects.

Lawrence Guy 4 months, 3 weeks ago

As soon as the rest of the State find out that davis is a politician from Lawrence, his poll numbers will sink.

Governor Brownback will win this race easily, as he deserves to do.

Richard Heckler 4 months, 3 weeks ago

Paul Davis has been quite an active supporter of public education and the hard working teachers.

Paul Davis is the Fiscal Responsible Fiscal Conservative in this campaign.

Melinda Henderson 4 months, 3 weeks ago

Wait, what? Colyer keeps floating the same $500K to Brownback? That's just stupid-funny.

Richard Heckler 4 months, 3 weeks ago

Sam Brownback and his administration are experts at wrecking economies and devastating public education. Sam was in Washington D.C doing the same thing.

Bill Moyers and People for the American Way have done a lot of homework and they have it right I'd say…

Bill Moyers - http://www.democracynow.org/2012/9/27/the_united_states_of_alec_bill

People for the American Way http://www.pfaw.org/rww-in-focus/alec-the-voice-of-corporate-special-interests-state-legislatures#Voter

What else do we find in the background of the big buck supporter of Sam Brownback? http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2011/06/10/242334/john-birch-society-celebrates-koch/

Defunding Public Education…… some politicians have simply lost their minds.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dennis-van-roekel/exposing-alecs-agenda-to-_b_3223651.html

Schools Underfunded 657 million $$$$$$ http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2013/jun/17/report-says-schools-underfunded-657-million-fy-201

What’s the matter with Kansas Schools http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/08/opinion/whats-the-matter-with-kansas-schools.html

Steve King 4 months, 2 weeks ago

Too bad Coyler only gets one vote for his $500,000. Those 10,000 or so that contributed to Davis the same amount only get well, 10,000 votes.

Cait McKnelly 4 months, 2 weeks ago

Over a hundred moderate Republicans (about half of whom are former legislators) have joined the Davis campaign. Bill Kassebaum, Nancy's son and a former legislator himself, is Davis' economic manager.
That says a lot right there.

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