Paul Davis

Gov. Sam Brownback outlines his economic agenda for a second term, calling his plan Road

Topeka ? If you’re wondering why you haven’t seen any Paul Davis ads on television, it’s not because you’ve missed them. There aren’t any.

Nor are there any radio ads. Nor is he trying to win free media by staging large public events in front of news cameras and reporters. The last such event was July 21, nearly four weeks ago.

It may be no surprise, then, that when an independent polling firm asked voters recently if they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him, nearly one in five voters, 19 percent, said they’ve never heard of Davis, the minority leader of the Kansas House and the Democratic Party’s nominee for governor.

What is surprising, though, is that despite his low name recognition, the Rasmussen Reports poll showed Davis leading the race, 51-41 percent.

That has led some analysts to wonder if Davis really has that big of a lead, or if some people being polled are siding with anybody but incumbent Gov. Sam Brownback, a Republican currently suffering from low approval ratings of around 42 percent.

“In re-election campaigns, voters are almost always voting retrospectively,” said Bob Beatty, a political science professor at Washburn University in Topeka. “They’re evaluating the campaign based on what the candidates have done in the past. And therefore, they are almost always tilted very heavily toward the incumbent.”

Davis’ campaign spokesman Chris Pumpelly declined to comment, saying the campaign does not publicly discuss its strategy. But he rejected the suggestion that Davis has been shying away from public scrutiny.

He said Davis appears at many functions, although most are private gatherings where the media is not allowed. And the campaign has made extensive use of social media to connect directly with voters.

“Paul Davis has spent the past year visiting with Kansans and sharing his vision for our state,” Pumpelly said in an email statement. “Like most folks, Paul is deeply concerned about the direction Sam Brownback is taking Kansas.”

Davis has spent much of the campaign criticizing Brownback for cutting base funding for education while passing massive tax cuts, which he says will lead to budget shortfalls that will force further cuts to education — claims that the Brownback campaign strongly rejects.

But so far, Davis has not said specifically how he would restore education funding, or how he would propose paying for it. And he has not proposed repealing any of the Brownback tax cuts, only freezing tax rates at there current levels and not allowing the next phases of the tax cuts to go into effect.

Beatty said he thinks there is still time for Davis to refine his message.

“There’s still an idea in politics that in August, people still aren’t paying attention,” he said, “whereas after Labor Day it’s back to school, and maybe they’re paying attention. That looks to be what’s going on.”

While Davis waits, however, the Brownback campaign and independent groups like the Republican Governors Association have been active in trying to define Davis themselves with phrases like “liberal lawyer from Lawrence,” and tying him to the Obama administration.

The key question for the Davis campaign, Beatty said, is timing: If he puts out an effective message before Brownback’s negative ads take hold, he could solidify his position and blunt the effects of future negative ads. But if he waits until he starts slipping in the polls, it may be too late to respond.

“Everything’s a gamble,” Beatty said. “If Davis loses, everybody’s going to say, oh gosh, you blew it.”