Archive for Sunday, November 24, 2013

The Brownback Experiment: hard to measure

November 24, 2013


— Gov. Sam Brownback has said his tax changes will be like an adrenaline shot to the Kansas economy.

But tax experts who have studied the Brownback plan say there will be no sudden surges from Brownback's tax policy, and it will be difficult to tell what effect the changes will make.

"We'll never now for sure whether Kansas specifically experienced significant gains as a result of this policy," said Justin Ross, assistant professor in the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University.

Ross and Carolyn Bourdeaux, an associate professor of public management and policy at the Andrew Young School of Policy Studies at Georgia State University, analyzed Brownback's tax changes for a recent conference at Kansas University sponsored by the Institute for Policy and Social Research.

Brownback has pushed for and succeeded in cutting income tax rates and giving certain business owners an income tax holiday.

The Republican governor has said these changes will modernize the state tax system in a way that will stimulate economic growth while providing the necessary tax funds to pay for what he deems core government functions.

Appearing last year on MSNBC's Morning Joe, Brownback explained what he wanted to do.

"On taxes, you need to get your overall rates down, and you need to get your social manipulation out of it, in my estimation, to create growth. We’ll see how it works. We’ll have a real live experiment," Brownback said.

But Ross said what is happening in Kansas doesn't fit the definition of an experiment because the results cannot be ascertained.

The problem, Ross said, is that unlike an experiment, the tax changes aren't isolated in a controlled environment to determine their impact.

Numerous forces affect the economy, he said. If Kansas experiences significant growth, can it be traced to the tax changes? If the economy sours, could it be argued the downturn would have been worse but for the tax changes?

For the operation of state government, however, the tax changes have a real fiscal impact.

Over a six-year period, the State Treasury will lose about $3.8 billion, according to the Kansas Legislative Research Department. Considering that the state spends about $5.9 billion per year, the loss of $3.8 billion over six years represents a big chunk of the budget.

The effect of Brownback's tax changes on the state budget concerns Bourdeaux.

"It seems Kansas decided to jump in all at once without having a strategy on the investment side," she said.

She said the tax cuts will produce a small economic "lift" but the reductions in spending will cost the economy. "When you cut state expenditures, that is money that was going to be spent in your state. If you cut education, that has a strong long-term economic impact," she said.

She said state taxing and spending is generally small relative to the overall size of state economies.

Kansas Gross Domestic Product in 2012 was $139 billion while state revenues were in the $6 billion range.

Below are the tax changes enacted over the past two years.

Individual income taxes

Collapses the three-bracket structure for individual income taxes of 3.5 percent, 6.25 percent and 6.45 percent, into two brackets of 3 percent and 4.9 percent.

In tax year 2014, the individual income tax rate for the bottom bracket is cut from 3 percent to 2.7 percent, and the top rate of 4.9 percent is cut to 4.8 percent. In tax year 2015, the top bracket is cut to 4.6 percent. The two brackets will be 2.4 percent and 4.6 percent in tax year 2016; 2.3 percent and 4.6 percent in tax year 2017; 2.3 percent and 3.9 percent in tax year 2018.

Further tax cuts could take effect as early as tax year 2019 if tax sources increase by 2 percent or more over the previous year.

Kansas standard deduction levels for married taxpayers filing jointly and for single heads of households reduced to $7,500 and $5,000 respectively, starting in tax year 2013. (Legislation in 2012 had raised both standard deduction levels from $6,000 for married and joint, and $4,500 for heads of household to $9,000.)

Most itemized deductions, such as home mortgage interest, are reduced by 30 percent in tax year 2013; 35 percent in tax year 2014; 40 percent in tax year 2015; 45 percent in tax year 2016; 50 percent in tax year 2017 and thereafter.

Business income exemption

Exempts non-wage business income reported by LLCs, Subchapter-S corporations, and sole proprietorships.

Tax credits

Repeals tax credits for food sales tax rebates, adoption expenses, child and dependent care expenses, childcare expenses, and disabled access expenditures. In addition, renters no longer eligible for homestead property tax refund.

Sales Tax

The state sales set at 6.15 percent on July 1. The rate had been 6.3 percent since July 1, 2010, but was scheduled to decrease to 5.7 percent on July 1 until Brownback signed into law the increase.

Source: Kansas Legislative Research Department.


Brock Masters 4 years, 6 months ago

I understand their point, but in my simplistic view it isn't. Brownback put out a roadmap. We know where he started so let's look at where we are and see if he has been successful.

He said he'd reduce childhood poverty. What was the rate when he took office and what is it today? Has it gone up or down?

Same thing for childhood literacy.

And finally the economy. Are more Kansans working today, earning more and do we have enough tax revenue to sustain essential government programs? Are Kansans paying more or less taxes? I can't speak for all, but I am paying more taxes this year than years past.

It isn't really hard to measure Brownback's performance.

Leslie Swearingen 4 years, 6 months ago

The annual Kids Count Kansas report, published by Kansas Action for Children, aims to analyze the well-being of children through various health, education and economic indicators.

According to the 2013 report, released Tuesday, childhood poverty has shown no signs of abating in Kansas. Statewide, about 23 percent of Kansas children live in poverty, compared to 18 percent five years ago. report-says

Sorry could not find anything about child literacy in Kansas. I don't know if you have heard about the kerfuffle in Texas over the new schoolbooks but it does not bode well. I have a great respect for science as it is a method for exploring and learning about everything that is around us. Of course, scientists are products of their backgrounds as we all are and this can factor into their findings.

Beator 4 years, 6 months ago

I'm not a "tax experts" but, I know better what to do with my money than people in government do. Thanks Brownback. I appreciate you not taking my money.

Brock Masters 4 years, 6 months ago

Mike do you understand that if you're middle income and not a owner of an LLC your taxes have gone up?

The sales tax rate was supposed to come down, but he didn't reduce it as was promised to taxpayers.

Second, your property and mortgage tax deductions have been reduced resulting in higher taxes paid. The small reduction in the rate doesn't offset the loss of these deductions.

Beator 4 years, 6 months ago

I said "I'm not a "tax experts" Mr. Masters.....Regardless, I know better what to do with my money than people in government do. You can give them my cut if you like. Thanks.

Brock Masters 4 years, 6 months ago

I realize you're not a tax expert which is why I tried to explain the effects of the tax plan to you. Do you support it even knowing you'll pay more in taxes?

Julius Nolan 4 years, 6 months ago

How can you support Brownback's tax cuts knowing you will have to pay more taxes overall unless you have a LLC business or in the upper 1% tax bracket?

Brock Masters 4 years, 6 months ago

I don't like my taxes being raised but it really bothers me that the lowest wage owners have effectively had their taxes raised.

I don't want taxes to be balanced on the backs of the rich, but I definitely don't want it to be placed on the backs of the poor. Raising my taxes is an annoyance, but for the poor it can mean their families going hungry.

MerriAnnie Smith 4 years, 6 months ago

You're right, Brock. Brownback found a way to increase taxes on the middle class that will be hidden from those who prefer not to know.

Seth Peterson 4 years, 5 months ago

Stupid comment misplacement. Doesn't even make sense here. Carry on.

Michael LoBurgio 4 years, 6 months ago

Since 2011 86 of Kansas' 105 counties have been forced to increase property taxes to fill the gap left by reduced state funding, to cover the tax cuts for the rich.

The republicans have tried this to sell us this trickle down economics [Fairy Dust] before and it didn't work then and it won't work now.

Rob Chestnut 4 years, 6 months ago

My hope is that the legislature will revisit provisions in the law in the future to measure impact. LLC income exemption as an example. Did I it generate any incremental revenue?

MerriAnnie Smith 4 years, 6 months ago

I hope they specifically look at the LLC's owned by the Kochs to see how much revenue was generated by their exemption from tax. I'd like to know how many new employees they have or will hire with that exemption money.

Dick Sengpiehl 4 years, 6 months ago

Adrenaline shot? More like a killing shot to our schools, the poor and disabled, and the arts. And every day we read about some power grab by the Governor. No wonder his polling numbers are so poor.

Leslie Swearingen 4 years, 6 months ago

Well, you know, no one can say what "their" taxes are going for, because everyone pays taxes to come degree and it all goes into the same pot to be portioned out later for whatever it is needed for. Things such as the infrastructure, public safety, education, public services such as gas, sewer and electric lines.

Bob Zimmerman 4 years, 6 months ago

Hey better watch out.

Less state funds for KU means declining enrollment (check the last five years) and declining economic activity.

Lawrence is getting pulled into with the rest of the state; which is devolving...going backwards.

Shane Garrett 4 years, 6 months ago

Then Kansas State University must be offering a much better product as KSU has had growing enrollment numbers.

Commenting has been disabled for this item.