Topeka — Gov. Sam Brownback’s administration already has developed talking points to deflect anticipated criticism of the newly enacted massive income tax cuts should Kansas face significant budget problems next year.
Critics said their fears about the aggressiveness of the cuts were confirmed by the conservative Republican governor’s budget director in July, when he told state agencies to draft proposals for slicing up to 10 percent of their spending.
Brownback and his allies argue that the tax cuts will stimulate economic activity, generating new tax revenues to more than offset what the state gives up. The governor concedes that economic growth may lag and the state may face some belt-tightening, but he says core services will be preserved.
The administration is fashioning a narrative that suggests budget cuts may be necessary because the nation’s economy may remain stagnant. Europe’s financial crisis also looms as a potential threat.
“There are forces beyond the state’s control,” Brownback spokeswoman Sherriene Jones-Sontag said last week. “There’s still a great deal of uncertainty with the economy.”
The state is decreasing its individual income tax rates for 2013, with the top rate dropping to 4.9 percent from 6.45 percent. Also, the state will exempt the owners of 191,000 partnerships, sole proprietorships and other businesses from income taxes.
The Legislature’s research staff projects that the tax cuts will be worth $231 million during the current fiscal year and increase to more than $800 million during the next fiscal year. The collective tax relief over the next six years is estimated at more than $4.5 billion.
The same legislative researchers project that the tax cuts will create collective budget shortfalls approaching $2.5 billion over the next six years.
Early fallout
Brownback’s aides described July’s budget instructions as a planning tool, but signs that significant cuts are a possibility keep popping up. The Department of Commerce announced last week it was ending its long-running Kansas Main Street program — which provided money and support for communities to help preserve small downtown businesses — trimming 18 jobs.
During a state Governmental Ethics Commission meeting, Executive Director Carol Williams warned that one of two staff auditors was at risk of being laid off, and said administrators in other agencies are certain that 10 percent cuts are imminent.
“The biggest force driving his budget problem is the tax cut,” said Kansas Democratic Party Chairwoman Joan Wagnon, a former state revenue secretary, said of Brownback.
Growth potential
Brownback and his allies have argued repeatedly that the projections are too pessimistic about future revenue growth that would come from a boost in economic activity, particularly small businesses.
“This plan simplifies their taxes and helps business owners retain more of their profits, which can then be reinvested in their livelihood or the community,” Revenue Secretary Nick Jordan said in a statement earlier this month.
The administration sees the potential growth to be too promising to reverse course, even when faced with the possibility of trimming the budget.
Still, raising questions about the national or global economy could help the administration as it defends the income tax cuts. The post-9/11 recession in 2002 largely shielded then-GOP Gov. Bill Graves and legislators from recriminations that they’d been too aggressive in cutting taxes during the 1990s.
Similarly, the suddenness and depth of the 2008 financial meltdown all but wiped away questions about whether Democratic Gov. Kathleen Sebelius and lawmakers had risked the state’s long-term financial health by committing to big increases in education spending without raising taxes in 2005 and 2006.
But if legislative researchers are on target in their hotly debated projections, Kansas is already headed toward a long-running budget crisis.
“They’re going to have to work hard to explain the actions they took deliberately,” Wagnon said. “Sherriene can spin it as forces beyond their control, but the truth is this is what they created.”
Comments
Mike1949 8 months ago
Are the republicans going to reinstate the taxes when the state of Kansas is about ready to declare bankruptcy? Or are they going to let the state of Kansas declare bankruptcy and blame it on someone else?
tanzer 8 months ago
Count on the latter and no one to hold them accountable.
chootspa 8 months ago
They'll shift the burden to property and sales taxes, but they'll use the decreased revenues as an excuse to shove through a bunch of radical legislation.
billbodiggens 8 months ago
They want the State to go banckrupt so they can reshape it to their liking. They simply do not care who or how many they hurt in the process as it will benefit them....!
LesBlevins 8 months ago
The GOP instituted the end of a century Negro Slavery when President Lincoln signed the Emancipation Proclamation ending the era of slave labor in the US. Today the "Grand old Party" is instituting a new era by introducing economic class slavery where the rich among us hold the economically disadvantaged in bondage while they pass the burden of excess spending for things like bank bailouts and unfunded wars off on the poor class and enjoy the perks of vast wealth without pulling their fair share of the financial load they created via unregulated bank bailouts and the military industrial complex Republican Ike Eisenhower warned us about. Thankfully many people in the so called "swing states" are beginning to figure out who Mitt Romney wants to lighten the burden on and who he would enslave.
optimist 8 months ago
So it wasn't Obama that gave TARP funds to car companies and financial institutions and increased our debt from $9 trillion to nearly $16 trillion in less than a single term? It seems to me that it is these actions that have enslaved us and our posterity. I for one don't see how empowering our government to take a disproportionate amount of tax from those that have legitimately earned it is a solution to our economic woes. It seems to me that spending more than we have on redundant services and over employment at the federal level is what is driving the economy down. Not to mention the federalization of about 1/6th of the private sector by way of the Affordable Care Act. Pretty soon there won't be enough private sector left to support the public sector.
LesBlevins 8 months ago
Incidently; I had my attorney write a letter to newly elected Kansas Governor Sam Brownback offering energy innovation manufacturing and deployment as a viable pathway for Kansas in addressing budget problems Kansas faced when he took office but he turned my proposal aside without so much as a response letter.
My attorney wrote;
Mr. Blevins would like to point out that most feedstock conversion systems focus on one or two feedstocks while the Advanced Alternative Energy conversion technology is designed to operate on a wide variety of feedstocks including;
• Crop Residues • Livestock and Poultry Wastes • Dedicated Energy Crops of Many Types • MSW, Urban Wastes and Special Wastes • Forest and Lumber Industry Residues • Food Processing Residues • Wood Products Manufacturing Wastes • Algae and Seaweed • Natural Gas and Landfill Gas • Low Rank Coal
The AAEC technology can use multiple advanced processes in the conversion of the above listed feedstocks to several higher value end products. Mr. Blevins believes his proposal will prove to be both a near term economic boost and a long term solution to the problems that face Kansans and the nation, including increasing energy efficiency and energy independence, combating global warming and climate change, and implementing smart-grid improvements. Mr. Blevins believes that therein lies the opportunity for bringing about the changes you are promising for Kansas.
Increasingly, "Trickle Up" technology is being seen as a viable way to repower the nation and the world via distributed clean energy solutions. This provides a backup for regional installations of solar and wind energy and enables the use of various types of biomass and waste resources which can be dispatched – on an as needed basis - when solar and wind are found to be insufficient.
Slowponder 8 months ago
This is so reminiscent of the opening scene "The Chicken Game" in Rebel Without a Cause.
LesBlevins 8 months ago
The cause I'm concerned with is the scientific ramifications of what we are doing to the environment.
Union Of Concerned Scientists
The Earth is warming and human activity is the primary cause. Climate disruptions put our food and water supply at risk, endanger our health, jeopardize our national security, and threaten other basic human needs. Some impacts—such as record high temperatures, melting glaciers, and severe flooding and droughts—are already becoming increasingly common across the country and around the world. So far, our national leaders are failing to act quickly to reduce heat-trapping emissions.
However, there is much we can do to protect the health and economic well-being of current and future generations from the consequences of the heat-trapping emissions caused when we burn coal, oil, and gas to generate electricity, drive our cars, and fuel our businesses.
LesBlevins 8 months ago
Kansas faces dangers from rising CO2 Say KU Scientists We can expect more heat, more intense storms and more drought, say KU scientists in climate change report
By Scott Rothschild November 11, 2008
Higher temperatures, more intense storms and increased drought will plague Kansas this century because of rising carbon dioxide emissions, according to a study by Kansas University scientists that was released Tuesday.
The study details numerous dangers posed by climate change and should serve as a warning and prompt new policies that reduce CO2 emissions, the scientists said. “What’s important to remember — these are projections,” said Johannes Feddema, a geography professor who is a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The study by Feddema and KU’s Nathaniel Brunsell, also a geography professor, was done for the Salina-based Land Institute’s Climate and Energy Project. By 2100, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase as projected, temperatures in Kansas will rise an average of 2 degrees to 4 degrees, the study said. Southwest Kansas could see an increase of 8 degrees. By 2060, winter temperatures will stay mostly above freezing. That means more insects, diseases, and the need for farmers to increase the use of costly pesticides, the scientists concluded. Higher summertime temperatures will also hurt crops and livestock and increase the need for irrigation.
Alyosha 8 months ago
SageonPage continues to see "journalism" as an "attack." Like other fundamentalists and authoritarians, any deviation from SageonPage's beliefs can't, of course, be tolerated, and must be demonized. Sad.
Agnostick 8 months ago
I've seen "slanted" 'books' before. Books that were just cobbled together from other people's comments and web posts to a facetious blog, for example...
dabbindan 8 months ago
hard working kansans like lawyers and doctors support staff who pay their state income tax while their bosses walk away paying none?
LesBlevins 8 months ago
The problems facing residents of Kansas, the United States and even the entire world is that both KU and the Brownback administration in Topeka steadfastly support trickle-down economics that keeps us all tied to fossil fuels and intensive industrial farming even as the word keeps heating up and crops begin failing on a regular basis.
bad_dog 8 months ago
Aircraft are but one means of transportation utilizing fossile fuels. A creative person might believe alternative energy sources (e.g. biodiesel, electrcity or CNG) could be utilized to power other modes of transportation, driving the overall demand for fossile fuels such as kerosene down and preserving them for more necessary uses such as the one you cite.
BTW, hybrid aircraft are being developed at this time. Battery size, weight and capacity are the primary obstacles, but there will come a day...
bad_dog 7 months, 3 weeks ago
With creative thinking such as yours, we'd all still be living in caves, rubbing a couple of sticks together while we shiver...
LesBlevins 8 months ago
Climate change will also cause more extreme weather patterns, including intense rain and flooding, but because of higher temperatures, soil moisture will decrease, and that means more intense drought. “What hurts Kansas also hurts the nation,” the report said. “Climate change will increase stress on America’s breadbasket, risking our food security.” An earlier study by the National Council of State Legislatures estimated that climate change could cost Kansas $1 billion per year. The report recommends that Kansas embrace renewable energy, focusing on wind, biomass and solar. Not only will this help the environment but it will also play into Kansas’ economic hand, the report said. “When people talk about climate change, too often they ignore the costs of not dealing with it. They also ignore the economic opportunities for Kansas in shifting to a clean energy economy,” said Nancy Jackson, executive director of the Climate and Energy Project.
hear_me 8 months ago
Here's a visual of global temperatures from1880 to present.
http://www.likecool.com/Earth_s_temperature_from_1880_to_the_present_in_26_seconds--Video--Gear.html.
headdoctor 8 months ago
For Starters Brownback could try a little truth and that truth is we do not have a surplus. That surplus is a fictitious figure from budgeting guess work. There is no surplus when Kansas has a $28.5 billion debt.
LesBlevins 8 months ago
I think we may as well stay the course that Brownback and the Republicans and the fossil fuel folks have us on today if we are all just fine with a future where jellyfish dominate the oceans and cockroaches and the lizards that feed on them dominate the rest of the earth.
jafs 8 months ago
Either the tax cuts will stimulate the economy, more than making up for the amounts cut, or they won't.
If growth will lag, and we'll have some "belt-tightening", then the cuts won't work as advertised, right?
headdoctor 8 months ago
At the very best this plan will be a wash. Cutting taxes on businesses does not mean more growth and jobs. Businesses only put more people to work if they are expanding because of new ventures or major sales and or service increases. The economic downturn has only proven that businesses can get by with forcing a smaller workforce to handle the load. The business tax relief will be used for everything but jobs and expansion.
The sales tax relief does not mean consumers are going to start buying more especially if Brownback successfully transfers some of the State Budget to local property taxes increases. Brownback hasn't figured out that in order for an economy to be viable. Money has to be moving in the basic day to day economy. If the consumers can't afford to buy more products and services along with the more wealthy setting on their money in investments, the money movement stagnates.
verity 8 months ago
Brownback knows exactly what he is doing. Slash and burn. Destroy the middle class, destroy moral, until we will all bow to him and the Kochs and give them what is their due---our complete obeisance.
Back to the dark/middle ages, folks. We will be ruled by our betters and depend on them for every crumb we get and we will be grateful for it.
oxymoron 8 months ago
Which is why sane Kansans every where must vote Democrat for state senators in November. Gridlock is the best we can hope for until we can kick Brownback and his stooges to the curb.
chootspa 8 months ago
When exactly did being a worker become a bad thing?
Alyosha 8 months ago
Your attempt to impose your fantasy view upon liberals - bringing up the phrase "worker's paradise" that no one of any seriousness considers a propos of anything - is laughably juvenile and does nothing but show you have no factual basis upon which to make an argument. What you call common sense is in fact ideological fundamentalism. Any system of fundamentalism — communist fundamentalism, Christian fundamentalism, Islamic fundamentalism, fascist fundamentalism — is rightly rejected by free people.
question4u 8 months ago
“This plan simplifies their taxes and helps business owners retain more of their profits, which can then be reinvested in their livelihood or the community,”
Potential profits drive expansion, not excess capital. Every successful business owner in Kansas knows that. If there is a potential to increase profits by hiring extra employees, then employers will do so, even if they have to borrow. It's laughable that some people actually buy the argument that a decrease in taxes will cause employers to start hiring. No one is going to add employees unless there are strong indicators of increased potential profits, just as no one is going to let employees go if there are such indicators.
Why hasn't Brownback demanded accountability from businesses that will pay no state income tax? If those businesses are going to reinvest "in their livelihood or the community” then it should be simple enough to document that. Why not give businesses tax breaks proportional to the new hires they make or the additional investment that they make in "their communities"? If Brownback is so confident that his "experiment" will work, why not hold businesses accountable for the tax breaks that they will receive?
The answer is as obvious as the reason that Brownback is working on his spin and Sherriene has the blather machine running.
“There are forces beyond the state’s control,” Brownback spokeswoman Sherriene Jones-Sontag said last week. “There’s still a great deal of uncertainty with the economy.”
If so, then doesn't Kansas need true leadership, not preparation of excuses for "experiments" that fail. Doesn't Brownback have the guts to hold himself accountable? He is no doubt correct that many in Kansas will guzzle any swill that Sherriene pours down their throats. They evidence is clear enough among the posts above. Kansans who don't want a leader who will stand behind his decisions and not start pointing fingers at everyone but himself won't even be able to blame Brownback for what happens if the projected multi-billion-dollar deficit hits the state.
Kansas: The land of experiments and premeditated excuses.
oldbaldguy 8 months ago
Sage do you have any first hand experience with communist governments? Do you really believe we will ever head that way? Or is this all blow and go for fellow bloggers?
concerned1 8 months ago
One incident 12 years ago doesn't make a very compelling argument.
Agnostick 8 months ago
SageonPage 2 hours, 19 minutes ago
"Well you can stick your head up a Bull's A&& or you can take the word of the Butcher about the quality of the cut. How many times should it ever happen??"
Wow! Classic!!!
ROFLMAO!!
concerned1 8 months ago
Yeah, I saw Tommy Boy also.
jafs 8 months ago
Brownback was in fact not elected by the vast majority of Kansans.
He wasn't even elected by the vast majority of eligible voters in KS.
He was elected by about 1/3 of eligible voters in KS.
Those figures are accurate - there was approximately a 50% turnout of eligible voters, and Brownback got about 2/3 of the vote.
2/3 of 1/2 = 1/3
QED
jafs 8 months ago
I have asked you not to respond to my posts.
Please honor that request.
And stop lying - he did in fact get about 2/3 of the votes of those who chose to participate. But that's a far cry from being elected by the vast majority of Kansans.
In fact, as shown, it represents the votes of about 1/3 of the eligible voters in KS.
jafs 8 months ago
I'm male, and I've requested it twice now. The reasons have to do with your inability to discuss things without resorting to insults, which is clear to all who read your posts. Anybody who can refrain from that is somebody I'm glad to discuss and debate things with, which is also obvious to any who've read my posts.
I'll be forwarding this on to the moderators of the forum.
I have refrained from commenting on any of your posts, until this one, when you responded inappropriately to mine, and will continue to do so, although you haven't requested it.
And, again, you are the one who's lied about the facts - my version is correct.
Portraying the governor as having been elected by the vast majority of Kansans is false, and obviously so, no matter how many times you say it.
Eride 8 months ago
The tax change was JUST passed and Brownback is ALREADY blaming others for his plan's failure to achieve the goals he claimed the plan would bring about.
I must be dreaming, what a wonderfully entertaining satire.
Armstrong 8 months ago
Is Rothschild on vacation ?
hear_me 8 months ago
I'd say governor Brownback's strategy is truly transparent.
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