Topeka — Top Republicans say Tuesday's elections could cost them a few seats in the Kansas House and reduce the influence of the chamber's GOP conservatives.
Several Republicans said Thursday this year's redrawing of political district boundaries appears to have hurt the GOP in some places, especially in the Wichita area.
And Gov. Sam Brownback said he doesn't know how much power his fellow conservatives will have after Tuesday's voting.
Republicans now hold a 92-33 majority in the House. The powerful Kansas Chamber of Commerce counts 76 as conservatives.
Meanwhile, some Democrats questioned whether Republicans are hoping to lower expectations for Tuesday's outcome so the GOP can claim victory even if it loses a few seats. State Democratic Chairwoman Joan Wagnon won't predict the future balance of power in the House.
Comments
Antonym 6 months, 3 weeks ago
I hope they're correct about this one. Those nutjobs need some moderation.
chootspa 6 months, 3 weeks ago
Sadly, they won't lose their majority, even if they lost a few seats.
Yeoman2 6 months, 3 weeks ago
Nothing in the JW digital edition about Romney-Ryan
Today's horror story.....President Ryan.
Almost as frightening as President Palin
Liberal 6 months, 3 weeks ago
And you think President Biden let alone Obama sounds good?
chootspa 6 months, 3 weeks ago
Yes on both counts.
srj 6 months, 3 weeks ago
Very odd to being losing seats this year. Romney will win by such a large number here. I am very curious about the Holland-Brown race. I have had a postcard from Brown every day for a week attacking Holland, they must want him out bad. Heck, a judge had to stop the Republicans from putting Francisco and Holland in the same district.
Bill Hoyt 6 months, 3 weeks ago
"Very odd to being losing seats this year. Romney will win by such a large number here."
Romney will win big, but the GOP is coming off an absolutely huge 2010, in which they went from 76 seats up to 92 (of 125). Once you control that many seats, gaining even more becomes much, much harder. In economic terms, you could call it decreasing marginal utility.
It is of note that 2010 was such a huge year for the GOP that the number of "conservatives" noted by the Chamber is equal to the total number of Republicans 2 years ago. Conservatives did in the house 2 years ago what they did in the senate this year. Going forward even more is a very hard slog.
Bill Hoyt 6 months, 3 weeks ago
"Republicans now hold a 92-33 majority in the House. The powerful Kansas Chamber of Commerce counts 76 as conservatives."
So right now, assuming that everyone who's not a conservative is opposed to them (a silly assumption, but work with me), conservatives control the chamber (and therefore every committee) 76-54. That means they would have to lose 9 seats (surely that's more than "a few") to lose control, and even then, there's no guarantee that Republicans of a less conservative stripe would act like the moderate state senators and cut the conservatives out. It is not lost on moderates, I suspect, what happens when you do that.
But you do have to wonder what the marginal utility of even more conservative Republicans is at this point. Does having 80 or 90 or even 100 conservatives make the chamber more conservative than having 76? Heck, the Democrat I voted for in my house race is both pro-life and pro-gun - she's certainly a conservative in her own words. When she's elected, she'll probably make a more conservative chamber than her GOP rival will, because she'll be a conservative in a small, liberal party rather than one more conservative in a large, already conservative one.
All that said, who cares about "claiming victory"? If the GOP loses 5 seats or 10, if the conservatives lose 1 seat or 7, it will make no difference 2 days after the election. No one but political junkies care about claims of victory; they are also the least likely to be fooled by them.
average 6 months, 3 weeks ago
"But you do have to wonder what the marginal utility of even more conservative Republicans is that this point. Does having 80 or 90 or even 100 conservatives make the chamber more conservative than having 76?"
Sure. That gives gives them more room to 'RINO' out the 80th- or 90th-least conservative, even if they call him a 'conservative' today. Remember that many of those 16 'not conservative' Republicans (Vratil/Schodorf/Teichman/etc) were people who received Chamber of Commerce and Koch funding and endorsements only 2-4 years ago.
Bill Hoyt 6 months, 3 weeks ago
You are correct in that but perhaps I was not clear. It takes 63 votes to pass something in the chamber. Once you have that 63, a 70-vote or an 80-vote or a unanimous vote does not make it more conservative. 76 votes means you can afford to lose 13 conservative votes and still pass legislation. Perhaps there will be some votes that 13 conservatives can't go along with, but I cannot imagine there will be that many.
average 6 months, 3 weeks ago
There are shades in conservatism all the way down. I hold that there's not a single member of the KS Legislature so pure in his conservatism that David Koch wouldn't fund a viable 'challenge from the right' against him. Nor do I expect there ever will be, since being able to fund a 'challenge from the right' is one of Koch's main political tools.
Again, several of the 'not conservatives' who Brownback has been fighting for the last two years were, not very long ago at all, well-funded right-wing challengers to old-guard Dole/Kassebaum-era 'moderate' Republicans.
Paul R. Getto 6 months, 2 weeks ago
Good point
pittstatebb 6 months, 3 weeks ago
Unless, the goal is not only control the chamber, but to also have a 2/3 majority so that you may pass amendments to the constitution of the state. For example, defining the definition of "suitable" as it applies to education, defining a "person" as a fertilized egg, etc.
Paul R. Getto 6 months, 2 weeks ago
Rominator down 30+ in his "home" state. His record as GOV wasn't what he claimed.
FREESTATEFAN 6 months, 3 weeks ago
Obamacare Tax Hikes FOR THE 47% to keep getting their free crap!
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The Obamacare Medical Device Tax begins to be assessed on January 1, 2013. Medical device manufacturers employ 409,000 people in 12,000 plants across the country. This law imposes a new 2.3% excise tax on gross sales – even if the company does not earn a profit in a given year. Exempts items retailing for <$100.
The Obamacare Medicare Payroll Tax Hike takes effect on January 1, 2013. The Medicare payroll tax is currently 2.9 percent on all wages and self-employment profits. Starting in 2013, wages and profits exceeding $200,000 ($250,000 in the case of married couples) will face a 3.8 percent rate.
The Obamacare “Special Needs Kids Tax” comes online on January 1, 2013. Imposes a cap on FSAs of $2500 (now unlimited). Indexed to inflation after 2013. There is one group of FSA owners for whom this new cap will be particularly cruel and onerous: parents of special needs children. There are thousands of families with special needs children in the United States, and many of them use FSAs to pay for special needs education. Tuition rates at one leading school that teaches special needs children in Washington, D.C. (National Child Research Center) can easily exceed $14,000 per year. Under tax rules, FSA dollars can be used to pay for this type of special needs education. This Obamacare cap harms these families.
The Obamacare “Haircut” for Medical Itemized Deductions goes into force on January 1, 2013. Currently, those facing high medical expenses are allowed a deduction for medical expenses to the extent that those expenses exceed 7.5 percent of adjusted gross income (AGI). The new provision imposes a threshold of 10 percent of AGI. Waived for 65+ taxpayers in 2013-2016 only.
Third Wave: The Alternative Minimum Tax and Employer Tax Hikes
When Americans prepare to file their tax returns in January of 2013, they’ll be in for a nasty surprise—the AMT won’t be held harmless, and many tax relief provisions will have expired. These tax increases will be in force for BOTH 2012 and 2013. The major items include:
Bill Hoyt 6 months, 3 weeks ago
Dude, posting other people's words without attribution is called "plagiarism." And if you didn't know, that's a bad thing. How about you go back and try adding something of your own? http://m.atr.org/article.php?id=7203
George_Braziller 6 months, 3 weeks ago
I don't think that redrawing districts is what's going to cost the Republicans seats in the House, the ultra-conservative factions and the party in-fighting will do it. Voters on election day will let Brownie know that he has gone too far.
Paul R. Getto 6 months, 2 weeks ago
..... Republicans are hoping to lower expectations for Tuesday's outcome so the GOP can claim victory even if it loses a few seats. .....
Interesting. Let us all go vote and see what happens. Fox News is reading the polls too. They seem shrill and panicked, while they simultaneously declare the impending victory. The President's firewall seems to be holding up. It will be very hard for Romney to get to 270, regardless of the popular vote.
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