Just a few weeks into a new fiscal year, Douglas County commissioners are already bracing for the difficult budget decisions that could come in 2013.

At Wednesday’s County Commission meeting, County Administrator Craig Weinaug presented a projected budget for next year. The numbers weren’t pretty.

“I’m anticipating 2013 to be much more difficult than the past few years,” Weinaug said.

A drop in property values combined with potential state cutbacks and increasing employee costs has the county looking at a possible $2.4 million shortfall for 2013. To cover the gap, the county would have to increase its mill levy by 2.16 mills, which translates into about an extra $50 for a $200,000 home.

Raising the mill levy is just one of the difficult decisions the commissioners will face as they look at the 2013 budget.

Most years commissioners don’t begin reviewing the budget until June. But Weinaug said that with a possible loss in revenue, he thought it best to come before the commission early.

“If we intentionally underspend what we budgeted in 2012, we may be in a better position to make those decisions less difficult,” he said.

The biggest concern is an expected 2 to 3 percent drop in property values, which accounts for about 60 percent of the county’s revenue.

The other looming unknowns are possible cuts from the state. The most pressing state funding issue is the future of the Kansas Public Employees Retirement System, which covers Douglas County employees.

As part of the budget projections, the county increased its KPERS expenses by 3 percent, a number Chairman Mike Gaughan said they’d be lucky to not go over.

Other anticipated budget increases are cost-of-living raises for county employees, health care costs and ambulance services.

With the budget projection, Weinaug said, commissioners can now consider ways to adjust spending to the shortfall. He recommended they identify which of Douglas County’s services are core and which ones aren’t.

The county also is prepared to spend $1 million less in 2012 for its capital improvement projects, much of which goes toward fixing roads and bridges. Weinaug said they could use that money to help fill gaps in 2013.

“That’s the easiest choice out there. The rest of them are a lot harder,” he said.

Even that short-term solution made some commissioners uncomfortable.

“If we have to dabble in that, I want it to be the last resort,” Commissioner Jim Flory said.

And, Flory noted, even if the mill levy were to increase, it wouldn’t necessarily mean taxes would go up for property owners because many of them have seen a drop in property values.

“What mill levy increase would help us meet our budgetary needs without actually raising taxes on the majority of our residents?” Flory asked. “I think that is a projection I would find very helpful.”