Analyst: Meat will cost more next year / LJWorld.com

Archive for Saturday, December 1, 2012

Analyst: Meat will cost more next year

Consumers could see up to 8% increase

December 1, 2012

WICHITA — Consumers can expect to pay 5 percent to 8 percent more at the meat counter next year regardless of whether they put beef, pork or chicken into their grocery carts, a market analyst said Friday.

Randy Blach, vice president for CattleFax, told nearly a thousand cattle producers attending the 100th convention of the Kansas Livestock Association that consumer meat prices will rise to record highs because livestock production has fallen dramatically after ranchers culled animals during this year’s drought.

Ranchers sold livestock they couldn’t afford to feed after the drought dried up pastures, cut hay production and drove up the price of corn and other feedstuffs.

The market analyst said roughly 70 percent of the nation’s cattle herd has been affected by drought this year, the fourth in a row with drought in at least some key cattle-producing areas. This year’s drought, which covered two-thirds of the nation at one point, has been among the worst in 100 years, he said.

The culling is slowing now, but Blach estimated that the nation’s herd will be down by 1 million cattle by the time the government releases its semi-annual cattle inventory in January.

The cattle inventory is the smallest it has been since 1958; however beef production has doubled since then, Blach said. That is because the nation has over the years been slaughtering heavier animals. Once ranchers eventually begin rebuilding herds, it won’t take as many animals to produce the same amount of beef.

He predicted at least one major meatpacking plant and several feedlots will likely shut down as slaughter numbers continue to decline.

“We have a lot of excess feeding capacity, we have a lot of excess packing capacity. We will likely see some closures start within the next 12 months,” Blach said. “And that is never good because once you start seeing them close, and it is always, particularly from a packing standpoint, it is tough to get them back open.”

Blach also said he remained hopeful the nation would see action to avert the so-called fiscal cliff, a package of sharp tax increases and spending cuts that will take effect next year unless Congress and the White House replace them. He urged cattlemen to get on the phone and encourage their congressmen to come to a deal.

A CattleFax analysis indicates cattle producers could lose as much as $200 a head in value because consumer demand will fall if Congress does not avoid the fiscal cliff.

“They need to get this thing resolved because it could have some major implications to our business,” Blach said.

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RETICENT_IRREVERENT 5 months, 3 weeks ago

I am stocked on bacon. :]

Kontum1972 5 months, 3 weeks ago

LoL.....bacon....mmmmmmmmmmmmmm...!

Kontum1972 5 months, 3 weeks ago

better eat it up before Dec 21st....!

loudmouthrealist 5 months, 3 weeks ago

If you are concerned about this minor 5 to 8 % increase in meat prices, well I have "good" news for you. This small increase is nothing compared to what meat (and bread and milk) will cost once we deplete our "abundant" water supply. Just wait another 10 years when the Ogallala Aquifer is majorly depleted and the corn growers wont have half of the water they have now. Just wait another 20 years when farmers will have to drill and pump from more than 500 feet deep to get their water (today's average water table is roughly 200 ' deep). Wonder what beef will cost then?

So eat up kiddos while you can. When you are as old as your parents you will paying out the nose for a taste of beef. And when your kids and grand kids are as old as you are now, they will be paying out of their as& for a chunk of gristle.

And if you do not believe we are heading in this direction you should check out Happy, TX. Not such a HAPPY place anymore.

An omnivore

beatrice 5 months, 3 weeks ago

The answer: Soylent Green

rockchalker52 5 months, 3 weeks ago

You're always practical, but dayum! I guess it'd be ok if it's free range.

Katara 5 months, 3 weeks ago

by Katara

RoeDapple 5 months, 3 weeks ago

That settles it. Late season doe. Maybe two.

oletimer 5 months, 3 weeks ago

This "news" has been known and reported in late spring. Why they are acting like it is new information is beyond me. As for the water depletion "facts" talked about, where did this information come from. Or just scare tactics from a veggie eater?

deec 5 months, 3 weeks ago

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/04/aquifers-depletion-poses-sweeping-threat/

"According to the U.S. Geological Survey, a volume of groundwater equivalent to two-thirds of the water held in Lake Erie has been depleted from the Ogallala since 1940."

http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2012/07/19/that-sinking-feeling-about-groundwater-in-texas/

loudmouthrealist 5 months, 3 weeks ago

oletimer

All you have to do is pay attention to real news (not FOX) and accept facts no matter how much they suck.

For your question as to where the info is coming from: Here are some examples.......

----USGS http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/gwdepletion.html

"High Plains - The High Plains aquifer (which includes the Ogallala aquifer) underlies parts of eight States and has been intensively developed for irrigation. Since predevelopment, water levels have declined more than 100 feet in some areas and the saturated thickness has been reduced by more than half in others."

------Texas Tech University via The Texas Tribune (not sure how many Texans are veggie eaters) http://www.texastribune.org/texas-environmental-news/water-supply/how-bad-is-the-ogallala-aquifers-decline-in-texas/

"The use of big pivot irrigation — the lifeblood of the Panhandle — could be cut back severely in 10 to 20 years if current usage patterns continue, researchers at Texas Tech University estimate."

-------The Oklahoma Farm Report http://oklahomafarmreport.com/wire/news/2012/06/02270_OgallalaDepletion06062012_134859.php

" The study predicts that farmers in the southern High Plains most affected by the decreasing levels in the aquifer will need to return to non-irrigated, dry land crops such as cotton instead of corn."

----- The Christian Science Monitor http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2012/0530/Southern-Great-Plains-could-run-out-of-groundwater-in-30-years-study-finds

"A new study looking at key aquifers beneath the Great Plains and California's Central Valley suggests that areas of Texas and Kansas are drawing groundwater at an unsustainable rate."

Hell, even "our" boy Brownback is starting to pay attention.

Brownback to host Ogallala Aquifer summit by Associated Press LJWorld.com

And even though this omnivore loves his veggies, I also enjoy a good piece of beef on my plate.

Cappy 5 months, 3 weeks ago

This would be a good time to learn how to cook meatless. I'm not suggesting everyone must be vegetarian (I'm certainly not), but a couple meatless meals a week can save you a lot of money, reduce your fat and cholesterol intake, as well as reduce our national carbon footprint considerably. The bean will set you free.

Mike_Gerhardt 5 months, 2 weeks ago

No thanks!

Mike_Gerhardt 5 months, 2 weeks ago

Yuk!

riverdrifter 5 months, 3 weeks ago

"Ranchers sold livestock they couldn’t afford to feed after the drought dried up pastures, cut hay production and drove up the price of corn and other feedstuffs."

I was deer hunting on a rancher this past week in southwest Kansas. A year ago she had ~600 head of stockers/cows. This year she's got 240 head. Tough times out there. She didn't have any deer to speak of, either. The whisky still flowed and the hot tub was still hot, though.