Forecasters say Saturday storm system could be 'life threatening;' severe weather expected for Lawrence area / LJWorld.com

Archive for Friday, April 13, 2012

Forecasters say Saturday storm system could be ‘life threatening;’ severe weather expected for Lawrence area

April 13, 2012, 11:02 a.m. Updated April 13, 2012, 4:30 p.m.

AP Photo/NOAA

This graphic provided Friday, April 13, 2012, by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center shows a high risk of severe weather in portions of Kansas and Oklahoma on Saturday, April 14. According to forecasters, there is a 60 percent chance of tornadoes, high wind and hail within 25 miles of a point in an area from Salina, Kan., to Oklahoma City. Also, in the area marked with dashed lines, there is a 10 percent or greater chance that storms within 25 miles of a point could be significant. That region stretches from near Omaha, Neb., to west of Dallas.

Norman, Okla. — An outbreak of fierce storms, some of which could spawn large and violent tornadoes, are expected to develop across the nation’s midsection on Saturday in a band running from Texas north to Minnesota.

Lawrence could be in the storms’ path.

The worst weather is expected to develop in the late afternoon between Oklahoma City and Salina, Kan., but other areas also could see severe storms with baseball-sized hail and winds of up to 70 mph, forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., said Friday.

The outbreak could be a “high-end, life threatening event,” according to a report from the center, which is part of the National Weather Service.

It is only the second time in U.S. history that the center has issued a high-risk warning more than 24 hours in advance, said Russ Schneider, director of the center, which is part of the National Weather Service. The first such warning was issued in April 2006 before nearly 100 tornadoes tore across a large swathe of the southeastern United States.

In the Lawrence area, there is a chance of severe thunderstorms Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

“Right now we’re looking at (possibly) a tornadic outbreak, and large hail. As time goes on it will morph into a line of thunderstorms. There will be heavy rain and wind,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Shawn Byrne.

In the event of a tornado, residents should seek shelter in areas that have plenty of walls, and few windows, said Teri Smith, director of Douglas County Emergency Management. There are no FEMA-approved tornado shelters in the city.

“You need to go to the lowest level (and) have the most walls as you can between you and the outside, with no windows,” she said. “People need to make sure to know where to take shelter, no matter where they’re at. It’s important that people have a plan, have a kit and stay informed.”

The latest warning was issued as a strong storm system moves in from the western United States with cold air combining with low-level moisture coming up from the Gulf region. The difference in wind direction and speed created by the storm system creates instability in the atmosphere that helps create rotation that can spawn tornadoes, said Scott Curl, a meteorologist at the NWS.

“It’s amazing how many things you have to get to get a tornado to develop, and many of those ingredients will be in place,” Curl said.

While the most severe storms are expected to hit in Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska, there could be severe weather in Iowa, Missouri, Texas and portions of Illinois. On Sunday, the storm system is expected to move east Sunday, centering over Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri, Arkansas, Texas and Louisiana.

“This is a very powerful weather situation,” Schneider said. “The environment is extremely favorable for violent, long-track tornadoes.

“The only question is when and where these storms will initially develop.”

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riverdrifter 1 year, 1 month ago

High risk from Olahoma City to Salina: that would pretty much be the heart of tornado alley. This evening's forecast doesn't look all that rosey for us, either.

mom_of_three 1 year, 1 month ago

The wichita eagle has a model of the risk areas, and we are under moderate risk. I agree, I don't like the sound of it either.

DougCounty 1 year, 1 month ago

This is apparently only the second time in the Storm Prediction Center's history that they've issued a high risk status 2 days out. The last time was in 2006 in Tennessee and the result was 73 tornadoes, 13 killed and 1.5 billion dollars of damage. The forecast also says that there's good chance for strong nighttime tornadoes after dark on Saturday night, so this one is one to really pay close attention to, even tho the highest risk is a little to our west. After all, a long track big tornado comes from the west....

mom_of_three 1 year, 1 month ago

and tornadoes don't read maps.

Pywacket 1 year, 1 month ago

It's those night ones that worry me the most. I have to be away Saturday night but I'm thinking of making the hubs promise to take the kid downstairs and sleep in the man cave. If I knew they were there, I wouldn't worry so much about them sleeping through the sirens--and winding up in the next county.

As for me, I'll be in Overland Park. Will need to scope out the shelter options there.

snap_pop_no_crackle 1 year, 1 month ago

Bicycle helmets, people. I'm not kidding.

Pywacket 1 year, 1 month ago

You're absolutely right.

Liberty275 1 year, 1 month ago

If rather have my skull crushed in. But thanks for your concern, and hopefully others will take your advice if necessary and perhaps mitigate any injuries.

Actually, If the deal goes down during the day and I'm off early enough, we'll be out chasing and thanks to your idea I'll bring my Snell 2005 helmet for my wife. I do promise to duck if the jeep gets pushed off the road. :-)

somedude20 1 year, 1 month ago

Does this report come with a free diaper cause they sure is scaring the poo poo out of me? Zoinks! Eat your final meals tonight and make coitus while you can cause a high-life is threatening to end up in your belly! Oh lordy lordy we surely is dead as a catfish on a hot tin roof........lord baby jesus, please touch me with you small baby manhand and save me

kufan1146 1 year, 1 month ago

Lol. Best comment I've ever read on this site.

Pywacket 1 year, 1 month ago

FTW!

rtpayton 1 year, 1 month ago

I didn't realize the mole now worked for the storm prediction center.

snap_pop_no_crackle 1 year, 1 month ago

;)

snap_pop_no_crackle 1 year, 1 month ago

If you aren't already in your basement, it's too late!

riverdrifter 1 year, 1 month ago

Thanks for reminding me.

AlfVenison 1 year, 1 month ago

There was a news item recently that said that the tornado warnings were going to be amped up this year. Things like "if you don't take cover this storm will kill you and spread your dismembered carcase over a 100-mile radius. And your children too." I think they decided that the boy wasn't crying wolf loudly enough.

srj 1 year, 1 month ago

160 people did die in Joplin less then a year ago you know.

AlfVenison 1 year, 1 month ago

Yeah, I heard something about that. I'm just saying that weather people seem to enjoy pegging the hysteria meter.

Cai 1 year, 1 month ago

yea, but that didn't happen because of lack of warning or lack of heeding warnings. It happened because of a combination of severity of storm and lack of proper shelter - which these increased warnings don't help.

My heart did, does, and will continue to go out to Joplin, Greensburg, and many other cities that have been hit by tornadoes so catastrophically. But the problem still hasn't been addressed in many places. Take any of the trailer parks here or in Eudora - how, exactly, does increased warning help them when there's no shelter even available for them to go to?

Pywacket 1 year, 1 month ago

I guess, in theory, if you live in a trailer park, you should be proactive--seek shelter when you're in a tornado watch situation rather than wait until it's a warning and the thing is bearing down on you.

For that matter, we should all do that--if we're not going to be at home, with a fairly safe basement a few steps away, take precautionary measures when we're in a watch. Find out ahead of time where the safest available shelters are and go there. Even if it means feeling like an idiot and riding out many hours each tornado season.

If everyone did that, the number of deaths would drop drastically. Obviously, that's not practical for everyone. Can you imagine Joplin evacuating that entire hospital full of people as soon as the tornado watch was issued? And crowding them into the basement of the building? Even if the hospital director had considered such a precaution, they probably would have figured, What are the odds?..... But those of us who can be a little more cautious should be. Especially those who do not have basements.

toe 1 year, 1 month ago

Weather has become a contact sport, with bets on the outcome. Here is prediction you can use. We will have weather. Beware, the government is now responsible for weather. Soon we will have a department within Home Land Security for weather emergencies. Oh wait, we already do. Nice to know the government watches over us.