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Archive for Monday, December 26, 2011

Experts puzzled by drop in property crime, violent crime in Lawrence during economic downturn

December 26, 2011

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Lawrence and the rest of country continue to see decreases in violent and property crime, according to preliminary 2011 statistics.

In tight economic times, crime usually shoots up, not down. That’s why the decreases are “puzzling and heartening,” said Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis. “I’d be happier if I could figure out why.”

2011 also marks the third straight year without a murder in Lawrence.

If the second half of 2011 follows Lawrence’s trends for the year:

• Violent crime, including murder, rape, robbery and assault, will decrease 18 percent, from 413 offenses to 338, according to numbers provided by the Lawrence Police Department.

• Property crime, including larceny, motor vehicle theft, arson and burglary, will decrease 5.5 percent, from 3,841 offenses to 3,628.

Last week, the FBI released its Uniform Crime Report, which measures offenses reported to law enforcement, for the first six months of 2011.

The report showed:

• Violent crime decreased 6.4 percent in 2011 as compared with the first six months of 2010.

• Property crime decreased 3.7 percent.

Google form

Violent crime in Lawrence

Chart shows violent crimes reported to Lawrence Police between 2004 and 2011. Crimes shown are those included in the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports. Numbers for 2011 are projected based on data from the first six months of 2011. Information provided by the FBI and the Lawrence Police Department.

Google form

Property crime in Lawrence

Chart shows property crimes reported to Lawrence Police between 2004 and 2011. Crimes shown are those included in the FBI's Uniform Crime Report. Numbers for 2011 are projected based on data from the first six months of 2011. Information provided by the FBI and the Lawrence Police Department.

Comments

yourworstnightmare 2 years, 3 months ago

Those favoring CC are so desirous that CC will reduce crime that they see it everywhere. They force it. They latch on to any correlation and ignore data that goes against their belief.

The same can be said about those who oppose CC. Both are blinded by ideology.

CC will not and has not led to wild west shoot outs. On the other hand, it is clear that firearm proliferation (in particular hand guns) has led to acts of violence and death.

Reasonable regulations on CC and hand gun ownership are the answer.

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begin60 2 years, 3 months ago

Likely it is a case of honor among thieves. The sordid behavior of law enforcement and prosecutors may have been making the crime rate appear higher than it really was. They are great ones when it comes to hateful, southern-justice framing.

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bearded_gnome 2 years, 3 months ago

hey Roe, nowadays, you don't even need a permit in Arizona for concealed carry.

crime went down much faster in states like Florida etc., where conceal carry is legal.

stats do prove that.

thanks Bea for recognizing that the radical gun control nuts were totally wrong regarding CCW.

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RoeDapple 2 years, 3 months ago

I seldom read the Times bea, or watch Fox News for that matter. One leans too far to the left, the other too far right for my tastes. Admittedly the sources I quoted were very pro gun . . but it is hard to argue with a FBI study. Also the John Lott/David Mustard book "More Guns, Less Crime" was originally researched with the intent to prove the opposite. I'm aware you and I will never agree on this subject and acknowledge there could be flaws that allow some people to arm themselves who later prove themselves dangerous to the public, but CCW holders are stastically 6 to 8 times less likely to commit a crime than the average citizen. I searched for but couldn't find a study I had seen months ago that stated CCW holders even had a slight edge over police officers as being less inclined to commit crimes. For now I am content with the direction concealed carry has taken.

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beatrice 2 years, 3 months ago

By the way RoeD, did you see the recent story in the NY Times about conceal and carry permits getting into the wrong hands, or not being taken away from people after they have been convicted of crimes? Interesting read, and there do appear to be some loopholes that need fixing, but otherwise, it seems to be reaching to find a significant amount of condemning evidence to make their case.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/27/us/more-concealed-guns-and-some-are-in-the-wrong-hands.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=gun%20laws%20conceal%20and%20carry&st=cse

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beatrice 2 years, 3 months ago

RoeD, while your conceal and carry argument as possibly being cause and effect for lower crime, wouldn't that mean that crime rates in places without conceal and carry would have remained high during the same period? Truth is, crime has fallen all over the country. Alas, I don't believe there is a connection.

However, I will give the nod to the conceal and carry folks when it comes to winning the argument about the streets flowing with blood if people were allowed to carry. Where are all the shoot outs that were supposed to take place? They didn't happen. The conceal folks have demonstrated that they are not the ones to fear. Good for them. Kind of like the alarmists who said there would be reports of mass violence against gay soldiers after Don't Ask Don't Tell was dumped. That didn't happen either. Good people are good people after all.

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smitty 2 years, 3 months ago

Lawrence and the rest of country continue to see decreases in violent and property crime, according to preliminary 2011 statistics...JW

Today it was reported that rape(we call that violent) had increased in all three military academies from 41 per year to 65. That's over a 50% increase at the academies in one year. Were these involved in the stats or is rape under another category?

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bearded_gnome 2 years, 3 months ago

so ... apparently Smitty's beef is now with the FBI?

oh yeah, they were in on the Yellowhouse massive, multistate, multijursdiction, conspiracy that included judges, mental health professionals, and lowly lawrence police officers too!

still have black helicopters landing on Smitty's roof I guess.

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Alex Parker 2 years, 3 months ago

This story relies on data from the FBI, looking at overall trends, not specific instances. Last week's robbery - one of about 20 so far this year - is still part of a downward trend, according to the FBI.

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oneeye_wilbur 2 years, 3 months ago

Did Mr, Htttle not read the Journal World today about the armend robbery at the Reserve?

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Steven Gaudreau 2 years, 3 months ago

Topekans no longer have gas money.

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SouthWestKs 2 years, 3 months ago

Crooks don't work where they live.. That way they don't draw attention..

Have a Happy New Year & stay WARM..

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LadyJ 2 years, 3 months ago

I don't know about anyone else, but I certainly have less to steal. Heck, they would probably take one look and laugh.

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Steve Jacob 2 years, 3 months ago

1) Lawrence economy has been better then most and 2) we do have a pretty good police force. That might be the reasons for lower crime.

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RoeDapple 2 years, 3 months ago

Not that difficult to figure out . . .

http://www.kc3.com/CCWSTATS.html "Violent crime rates are highest overall in states with laws severely limiting or prohibiting the carrying of concealed firearms for self-defense". (FBI Uniform Crime Reports, 1992)

http://www.sj-r.com/top-stories/x1526463189/Concealed-carry-laws-Experts-debate-impact "John Lott, an economist who lives in Virginia, says he and his wife once didn’t allow even toy guns in their home.That was before he researched how crime rates are affected by laws allowing concealed weapons. Now, Lott says, he owns several firearms."

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=30405 "Since adopting a concealed carry law Florida’s total violent crime rate has dropped 32% and its homicide rate has dropped 58%. Floridians, except for criminals, are safer due to this law. And Florida is not alone. Texas’ violent crime rate has dropped 20% and homicide rate has dropped 31%."

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riverdrifter 2 years, 3 months ago

Surveillance cameras, for one thing. I know of a couple of places, folks gone for the winter. Smile, perps, you're on candid camera, day or night -and you'll never know it.

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Norma Jeane Baker 2 years, 3 months ago

If these statistics are accurate, wouldn't it mean that Lawrence does not need to expand its police force? Or, is it possible that the crime reporting methodology has changed so that it appears crime is down?

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