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Archive for Monday, December 26, 2011

Experts puzzled by drop in property crime, violent crime in Lawrence during economic downturn

December 26, 2011

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Lawrence and the rest of country continue to see decreases in violent and property crime, according to preliminary 2011 statistics.

In tight economic times, crime usually shoots up, not down. That’s why the decreases are “puzzling and heartening,” said Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis. “I’d be happier if I could figure out why.”

2011 also marks the third straight year without a murder in Lawrence.

If the second half of 2011 follows Lawrence’s trends for the year:

• Violent crime, including murder, rape, robbery and assault, will decrease 18 percent, from 413 offenses to 338, according to numbers provided by the Lawrence Police Department.

• Property crime, including larceny, motor vehicle theft, arson and burglary, will decrease 5.5 percent, from 3,841 offenses to 3,628.

Last week, the FBI released its Uniform Crime Report, which measures offenses reported to law enforcement, for the first six months of 2011.

The report showed:

• Violent crime decreased 6.4 percent in 2011 as compared with the first six months of 2010.

• Property crime decreased 3.7 percent.

Google form

Violent crime in Lawrence

Chart shows violent crimes reported to Lawrence Police between 2004 and 2011. Crimes shown are those included in the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports. Numbers for 2011 are projected based on data from the first six months of 2011. Information provided by the FBI and the Lawrence Police Department.

Google form

Property crime in Lawrence

Chart shows property crimes reported to Lawrence Police between 2004 and 2011. Crimes shown are those included in the FBI's Uniform Crime Report. Numbers for 2011 are projected based on data from the first six months of 2011. Information provided by the FBI and the Lawrence Police Department.

Comments

riverdrifter 2 years, 8 months ago

Surveillance cameras, for one thing. I know of a couple of places, folks gone for the winter. Smile, perps, you're on candid camera, day or night -and you'll never know it.

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RoeDapple 2 years, 8 months ago

Not that difficult to figure out . . .

http://www.kc3.com/CCWSTATS.html "Violent crime rates are highest overall in states with laws severely limiting or prohibiting the carrying of concealed firearms for self-defense". (FBI Uniform Crime Reports, 1992)

http://www.sj-r.com/top-stories/x1526463189/Concealed-carry-laws-Experts-debate-impact "John Lott, an economist who lives in Virginia, says he and his wife once didn’t allow even toy guns in their home.That was before he researched how crime rates are affected by laws allowing concealed weapons. Now, Lott says, he owns several firearms."

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=30405 "Since adopting a concealed carry law Florida’s total violent crime rate has dropped 32% and its homicide rate has dropped 58%. Floridians, except for criminals, are safer due to this law. And Florida is not alone. Texas’ violent crime rate has dropped 20% and homicide rate has dropped 31%."

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bearded_gnome 2 years, 8 months ago

You better watchit tharr Roe ol' buddy!

you really wanna be responsible for so many lawrence liberal heads exploding between the winter solstice and the chinese new year???!??? you best just have this post removed and I mean immediately!

... else you've got one heckuva lot of brain mush to clean up!

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BlackVelvet 2 years, 8 months ago

Why you gotta throw facts into the equation???

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kochmoney 2 years, 8 months ago

Correlation does not equal causation. You could just as easily argue that rises in violent crime cause restrictive gun laws.

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bearded_gnome 2 years, 8 months ago

fail.

try actually reading Lott's material before you ignorantly put stuff like this out.
hate the american Koch bros much?

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Steve Jacob 2 years, 8 months ago

1) Lawrence economy has been better then most and 2) we do have a pretty good police force. That might be the reasons for lower crime.

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LadyJ 2 years, 8 months ago

I don't know about anyone else, but I certainly have less to steal. Heck, they would probably take one look and laugh.

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LadyJ 2 years, 8 months ago

By the time the utility companies and the government are done robbing us, what's left to steal?

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bearded_gnome 2 years, 8 months ago

heck! LadyJ, they'll break in and steal your * buscuits and gravy!*

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SouthWestKs 2 years, 8 months ago

Crooks don't work where they live.. That way they don't draw attention..

Have a Happy New Year & stay WARM..

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shaunepec 2 years, 8 months ago

Oneeye, Not really sure what you mean. It's not my opinion that crime stats are down, they simply are. And yes, robberies happen.

Shaun

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Alex Parker 2 years, 8 months ago

This story relies on data from the FBI, looking at overall trends, not specific instances. Last week's robbery - one of about 20 so far this year - is still part of a downward trend, according to the FBI.

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bearded_gnome 2 years, 8 months ago

so ... apparently Smitty's beef is now with the FBI?

oh yeah, they were in on the Yellowhouse massive, multistate, multijursdiction, conspiracy that included judges, mental health professionals, and lowly lawrence police officers too!

still have black helicopters landing on Smitty's roof I guess.

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beatrice 2 years, 8 months ago

RoeD, while your conceal and carry argument as possibly being cause and effect for lower crime, wouldn't that mean that crime rates in places without conceal and carry would have remained high during the same period? Truth is, crime has fallen all over the country. Alas, I don't believe there is a connection.

However, I will give the nod to the conceal and carry folks when it comes to winning the argument about the streets flowing with blood if people were allowed to carry. Where are all the shoot outs that were supposed to take place? They didn't happen. The conceal folks have demonstrated that they are not the ones to fear. Good for them. Kind of like the alarmists who said there would be reports of mass violence against gay soldiers after Don't Ask Don't Tell was dumped. That didn't happen either. Good people are good people after all.

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Crazy_Larry 2 years, 8 months ago

Every state in the union allows concealed carry except Illinois (and DC). Compare Illinois (and DC) to the average crime rate of the USA and see what you get--you will find crime rates in Illinois (and DC) are above the national average.

Someone once said, "Correlation does not imply causation, but it sure is a hint".

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beatrice 2 years, 8 months ago

By the way RoeD, did you see the recent story in the NY Times about conceal and carry permits getting into the wrong hands, or not being taken away from people after they have been convicted of crimes? Interesting read, and there do appear to be some loopholes that need fixing, but otherwise, it seems to be reaching to find a significant amount of condemning evidence to make their case.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/27/us/more-concealed-guns-and-some-are-in-the-wrong-hands.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=gun%20laws%20conceal%20and%20carry&st=cse

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RoeDapple 2 years, 8 months ago

I seldom read the Times bea, or watch Fox News for that matter. One leans too far to the left, the other too far right for my tastes. Admittedly the sources I quoted were very pro gun . . but it is hard to argue with a FBI study. Also the John Lott/David Mustard book "More Guns, Less Crime" was originally researched with the intent to prove the opposite. I'm aware you and I will never agree on this subject and acknowledge there could be flaws that allow some people to arm themselves who later prove themselves dangerous to the public, but CCW holders are stastically 6 to 8 times less likely to commit a crime than the average citizen. I searched for but couldn't find a study I had seen months ago that stated CCW holders even had a slight edge over police officers as being less inclined to commit crimes. For now I am content with the direction concealed carry has taken.

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bearded_gnome 2 years, 8 months ago

hey Roe, nowadays, you don't even need a permit in Arizona for concealed carry.

crime went down much faster in states like Florida etc., where conceal carry is legal.

stats do prove that.

thanks Bea for recognizing that the radical gun control nuts were totally wrong regarding CCW.

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beatrice 2 years, 8 months ago

Correct about Arizona. As a result, Richard Loughner was arguably within his legal rights to carry a gun, until he actually pulled the gun out of his pocket and shot Representative Giffords and killed 8 others. Arizona is one of the states leading all others in gun deaths. (The statistics are prior to the loosening of the C&C laws, but I suspect they still hold true.) http://www.azcentral.com/community/pinal/articles/2011/01/27/20110127arizona-gun-death-rate-nations-worst-sev.html

I am in favor of conceal and carry laws that require a certain level of oversight and training. I think there should be a national standard for C&C, so people can go state to state and know their rights. Much of the over-reaction to those opposed are based on what criminals do, not law-abiding citizens. The recent Arizona law, however, goes way too far and allows guns to go too easily into criminals hands (insert your own Eric Holder / Fast and Furious joke here).

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Crazy_Larry 2 years, 8 months ago

"...Richard (sic) Loughner was arguably within his legal rights to carry a gun..."

Jared Loughner is mentally unstable and therefore was not legally carrying.

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2041733,00.html

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begin60 2 years, 8 months ago

Likely it is a case of honor among thieves. The sordid behavior of law enforcement and prosecutors may have been making the crime rate appear higher than it really was. They are great ones when it comes to hateful, southern-justice framing.

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yourworstnightmare 2 years, 8 months ago

Those favoring CC are so desirous that CC will reduce crime that they see it everywhere. They force it. They latch on to any correlation and ignore data that goes against their belief.

The same can be said about those who oppose CC. Both are blinded by ideology.

CC will not and has not led to wild west shoot outs. On the other hand, it is clear that firearm proliferation (in particular hand guns) has led to acts of violence and death.

Reasonable regulations on CC and hand gun ownership are the answer.

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