Archive for Friday, September 10, 2010

Fears of a second recession ease

September 10, 2010


— No, the economy isn’t roaring ahead. And no, companies aren’t making lots of job offers. But a fresh batch of economic data Thursday at least eased summertime fears that the economy might be on the brink of another recession.

Far fewer people applied for unemployment aid last week, suggesting layoffs are easing. And the nation’s trade deficit narrowed in July, thanks to a bigger appetite overseas for American exports.

Analysts say they think the economy will continue to plod along in the coming months. The economy will grow, though too weakly to create many jobs for the nearly 15 million unemployed Americans.

“At the moment, we can rule out a double-dip for the economy,” Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, said Thursday. “Things look better than they have in several weeks, and there is no danger of a new downturn in activity.”


Liberty_One 7 years ago

You can find quotes from this guy saying the same type of things all through 2007 and into 2008. Why do people keep asking his opinion? This is like asking Matt Millen what he thought of this year's NFL draft.

Jimo 7 years ago

For the same reason that the media keeps asking wingnuts from the Bush years who never got anything right for their views on security topics or voodoo economists to pontificate no matter how wrong they've predicted matters in the past.

Everyone makes mistakes and all people find themselves surprised at times. Yet, some individuals are consistently wrong but have routine gigs in the media trying to be even-handed.

'Well, there you have it. Some say the Earth is flat. Others say it's round. Who can say which is correct? After these messages, we'll be back with a report on a kitten who takes cat-naps to the extreme!'

snappromotions 7 years ago

Good catch Liberty_One. I'm an optimist, and even I recognize there's still a good chance of that second dip coming.

Stuart Evans 7 years ago

the second dip will come when the administration tell the media to begin freaking out the population again.

Chris Ogle 7 years ago

What started this ? ..... emotional responses, fear and greed. What made it worse??? emotional responses, panic

How do get out of this mess? Same way we started.... emotional response, feeling secure When we feel okay--- we tend to buy stuff...

Wait a minute, it can't be that simple.....can it?

avoice 7 years ago

No, xbusguy. It cannot be that simple. Some fears are based in fact. Too much positive thinking leads to too much frivolous spending, which is the real culprit that started this. People do not have money to buy stuff when they don't have jobs or they are still receiving wages at 2007 rates while paying taxes at 2010 rates. You want simple? No money = no buying = no selling = recession.

Chris Ogle 7 years ago

"You want simple? No money = no buying = no selling = recession"

Too much positive thinking (emotional) leads to frivolous spending (emotion), which caused this......

Thanks avoice, I was almost ready to go buy some stufff. Now I'm afraid to..... I mean what would happen if ........ NOPE I can't do it (spend)..... you go first (emotional response)

anonyname 7 years ago

I fully agree that we're in a depression. I've thought that for quite a while. Tom, can you say with a straight face that on Election Day 2008 the economy was in excellent shape, and structured to stay that way? Even if not, you'll hear laughs if you try to claim McCain would have led us to the land of plenty by now. This situation wasn't created on the most recent Election Day or Inauguration Day, and it won't be completely over by the next Election Day or Inauguration Day.

conservative 7 years ago

Liberty one. There are restrictions on automated trading. Once there is a swing past a certain percentage of change the automated systems are locked out and only real live people can make trades. And yes i still put my money on a double dip.

Scott Drummond 7 years ago

Uh oh, the right wingers fears are starting to be seen. The efforts of this Democratic Congress and President have reversed the economic trends that they inherited and have begun to show positive results. Cannot bode well for the right wingers - their economic policies have been demonstrated to be disasterous and now Democratic policies are working. Cue the distracting fear and division efforts. Will it be muslims, or gays, or commies, or terrorists, or unions, or some other method of dividing Americans? Which will they use to prevent middle and lower class Americans from enacting policy which benefits themselves, rather than the monied and protected class the right wingers represent?

notajayhawk 7 years ago

"The efforts of this Democratic Congress and President have reversed the economic trends that they inherited and have begun to show positive results."

What were they, again?

Oh, yeah - they said 'it would have been worse'.

Have another glass of kool-aid, it's crisp and refreshing!

Scott Drummond 7 years ago

Uh, the last 30 have all been right wing to one degree or another. Despite the hysterical posturing of the extremists who are taking over the republican party, both President Clinton and Obama have adopted corporatist policy.

Scott Drummond 7 years ago

What, we can't argue in the alternative here?

Yeah, my 1:15pm post probably was not well advised, or at least well articulated. What I meant was all the Presidents of the last 30 years have been corporatists. They have tended to temper the efforts of the Democratic mnajorities that have periodicially existed, but there have been Democratic initiatives that have been successful.

Scott Drummond 7 years ago

Perhaps you'll share any inaccuracies the President stated. Otherwise, it is important that the American public remember what the right wingers did to them and vital that our President share the context.

Scott Drummond 7 years ago

You know, Tom, if someone screws up, it stands there forever and they don't get to avoid responsibility for their actions after some set period of time.

bush and the right wingers screwed the country. That was true the day after our President's inauguration, it is true today and will still be true 100 years from now.

Scott Drummond 7 years ago

And why did Americans elect Democratic majorities in 2006? Because bush and the republicans were doing such a great job?

And why did Americans give Democrats bigger majorities and the Presidency in the last election? Because they were unhappy with the efforts made by the Democrats?

notajayhawk 7 years ago

Yes, they were unhappy with the Bush administration. They appear to have changed their minds and now realize it actually WAS possible to do worse.

Scott Drummond 7 years ago

Since someone pays for the care of those who didn't have insurance before health care reform, can you explain how an extra 30,000,000 will be added to the mix?

Scott Drummond 7 years ago

You asserted an additional 30M will become the burden of the middle class. I simply asked for clarification of the claim. You have still failed to provide it.

Jimo 7 years ago

The fact is "double dips" are extraordinarily rare and invariably come from either purposeful efforts to drive the economy down or gross macroeconomic errors. The economy naturally is weighted toward growth.

The dilemma is whether the measures not taken with the first half-stimulus need to be taken now or whether the economy would be growing by the time their stimulative effects kick in. If yes, we're wasting time. If no, the efforts run the risk of over-heating the economy for no good purpose.

That's why the only matters being proposed are (a) necessary anyway - infrastructure spending, or (b) reasonable adjustments to unbalanced conditions - passing the Obama tax cuts for the lower 97% of taxpayers.

Looking forward, the new Congress will need to: A. Significantly rewrite the tax code to be more efficient, probably replacing most middle class income (and perhaps payroll) taxes with some form of value added tax B. Set in place a system to constrain spending and increase revenues over time once the economy has improved (perhaps the GOP can help constrain health care costs?) C. Limit the unlimited waste in military and national security spending such as ending "security theater" at the airport and ending production lines for Cold War weaponry.
D. Constrain big banks.

Scott Drummond 7 years ago

Wow, that seems like far too sensible a post for these award winning forums. Thank you.

Scott Drummond 7 years ago

Wow, that seems like far too sensible a post for these award winning forums. Thank you.

beatrice 7 years ago

Anyone who thinks we are headed for a double-dip is just an economic girlie man.

Remember when Republicans used to talk like that?

yourworstnightmare 7 years ago

Time will tell. We will see if the predictions of the nattering nabobs of negativism come to pass.

Liberty_One and Shewmon: let's check back in one year and see how things are doing.

Scott Drummond 7 years ago

And if interested in their predicting abilities, it is fun to go back and check out their predictions of a McCain victory right up until election day and predictions of the defeat of healthcare reform.

notajayhawk 7 years ago

"predictions of the defeat of healthcare reform."

How silly of us to hope they would have listened to the people they were elected to represent.

In any event, this particular article is about how a certain economic 'expert' from a Tokyo bank predicts there isn't going to be a second recession. Just like, as Liberty pointed out, he predicted the housing the 'downturn' in the housing market ended four years ago.

How'd that one turn out?

independant1 7 years ago

Thomas Sowell (economist) wrote yesterday - There are always calls for the government to "do something" when things are going bad. Those who make such calls have almost never bothered to check out what actually happens when the government does something, as compared to what happens when the government does nothing.

It is not just free market economists who think the government can make a mess bigger with its interventions. It was none other than Karl Marx who wrote to his colleague Engels that "crackbrained meddling by the authorities" can "aggravate an existing crisis."

independant1 7 years ago

The country is not where it is today on account of any man. It is here on account of the common sense of the big Normal Majority. (Will Rogers)

beatrice 7 years ago

Almost as funny as blaming only the person in office for the last 20 months, isn't it?

notajayhawk 7 years ago

Almost as funny as blaming only the guy who hasn't been in office for 20 months.

Corey Williams 7 years ago

In 2002: "[Paul] O'Neill said he tried to warn Vice President Dick Cheney that growing budget deficits-expected to top $500 billion this fiscal year alone-posed a threat to the economy. Cheney cut him off. "You know, Paul, Reagan proved deficits don't matter," he said, according to excerpts. Cheney continued: "We won the midterms (congressional elections). This is our due.""

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