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Archive for Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Brownback leads Holland in poll

Sam Brownback enjoys a large pre-election lead in the upcoming race for Kansas governor.

March 2, 2010, 8:59 a.m. Updated March 2, 2010, 9:02 a.m.

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— A Rasmussen poll of 500 likely Kansas voters shows U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan., with a 55 percent to 33 percent lead over state Sen. Tom Holland, D-Baldwin City, in the race for governor.

The poll, with a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points, was conducted last Wednesday, a week after Holland officially announced his candidacy.

The poll showed Brownback had a 58 percent favorable rating, while Holland had a 34 percent favorable, with 43 percent not familiar enough with him.

Gov. Mark Parkinson, a Democrat who has said he will not run for election to the state’s highest office, had a 58 percent approval rating while President Barack Obama, also a Democrat, had a 58 percent disapproval rate.

Comments

frank mcguinness 4 years, 9 months ago

While this was to be expected I certainly am suprised that holland got 33%, not too shabby for a late comer with no real recognition in the state. Keep it up and don't do anything stupid and he may just give ol brownbag a run?

Not likely though.

50YearResident 4 years, 9 months ago

That's a very good margin for a guy that only announced 1 week ago against a "unopposed so called favorite" candidate if you ask me. Look at the results on election day and I think you will see just the opposite numbers.

Tristan Moody 4 years, 9 months ago

50YearResident--

As much as I would like to see that be the case, I doubt very much that it will happen.

Jack Hope III 4 years, 9 months ago

As a first impression, I don't think Holland can win this election, but I do think Brownback could find a way to lose it, handing an unlikely victory to a moderate Democrat. Brownback must try to maintain a delicate Republican coalition (social conservatives and fiscal conservatives). Recent GOP gubernatorial candidates have not been able to reconcile the Johnson County GOP with the Rural Kansas GOP.

However, I know nothing about Holland. Perhaps he is an amazing campaigner and very charismatic. Perhaps he is a fool and a sacrificial lamb. As an unknown candidate, Holland might be able to go for the "hey, I'm fresh... no DC stink on me" vote, but we'll see. It's a long way to Tipperary.

avoice 4 years, 9 months ago

Wow, 500 people. What a representative poll. One week after Holland's announcement. No biased intentions?

verity 4 years, 9 months ago

I'd say this is good news for Tom Holland. A week in for somebody most Kansans had never heard of and he's already got that much support. Much better than I had hoped.

verity 4 years, 9 months ago

I'd say this is good news for Tom Holland. A week in for somebody most Kansans had never heard of and he's already got that much support. Much better than I had hoped.

Ralph Reed 4 years, 9 months ago

@CRR - I can't believe you just said that. What compound do you live in?


I also wonder about the timing of the poll and the intelligence of running one like it.. "Hey, Brownback's been running for governor since he lost the Presidential bid. Look at how much of a lead he has over Tom Holland, who just announced last week." Thinking about conspiracy theories, I wonder if Sam's camp commissioned it. Wouldn't put it past them.


@sandrat. Unfortunately I think you're right. This election is Brownback's to lose. Holland has a long road. I hope he comes out ahead in November.


Anyone know where I can get a Tom Holland campaign sign?

yourworstnightmare 4 years, 9 months ago

33% is not bad, given Brownback's overwhelming name recognition and resources. This should be a good sign for Holland to move forward and get his ideas out there.

I can't wait for the debates between Holland and Brownback. They could be good fun.

verity 4 years, 9 months ago

Mr. Reed, I normally skip over Rooster's comments, but today I have read two of them and I have come to the conclusion that they are satire. This one can't possibly be for real---can it?

Jimo 4 years, 9 months ago

55 % of Kansans have heard of Brownback and don't instantly gag. Up to Holland now to make himself known.

Q 1: Sam, what can you do to assure Kansans that your first action as governor wouldn't be to pardon or commute the sentence of Scott Roeder?

preebo 4 years, 9 months ago

There are some bright signs for State Senator Holland and the KS Democratic Party. First, it should be noted that Rasmussen is definitely a "right" leaning polling group. That being said, with the fact that Brownback has been running for Governor since he ended his long-shot bid for President in 2008, it is safe to say that his numbers have nowhere to go - but down. Following that, his (Brownback) 55% is well established, however, Tom Holland's (33%) candidacy for KS Governor was only a young week old when the polling was run.

My argument is that how much better can people know Brownback; his name recognition has peaked and his record has yet to be reviewed. If you take the 3 % of those surveyed who have chosen other than Brownback it could be gleaned that there are reservations about Brownback for those potential voters - leaving the possibility that they could vote Holland, once they get to know him better. Similarly, the 8% of undecided polled could possibly be viewed as having reservations about the US Senator. As I indicated earlier, Brownback has been a sizable force in Kansas politics for the better part of a decade or longer, and to think that there are people who have not decided their feelings on Brownback bode well for Holland. So, assuming these things, one could make a convincing argument that there is 42% of Kansans that do NOT want Brownback as Governor next year.

After only one week of a legitimate candidate in the race, this is an interesting situation for the Democratic Party here in Kansas. The only remaining questions is whether or not the party will act on this. We'll have to keep an eye on the polls in the coming months, but this is not a bad place to start.

Having said all this... Democrats will have a lot of work to do and a win would still be considered a MONUMENTAL upset.

preebo 4 years, 9 months ago

There are some bright signs for State Senator Holland and the KS Democratic Party. First, it should be noted that Rasmussen is definitely a "right" leaning polling group. That being said, with the fact that Brownback has been running for Governor since he ended his long-shot bid for President in 2008, it is safe to say that his numbers have nowhere to go - but down. Following that, his (Brownback) 55% is well established, however, Tom Holland's (33%) candidacy for KS Governor was only a young week old when the polling was run.

My argument is that how much better can people know Brownback; his name recognition has peaked and his record has yet to be reviewed. If you take the 3 % of those surveyed who have chosen other than Brownback it could be gleaned that there are reservations about Brownback for those potential voters - leaving the possibility that they could vote Holland, once they get to know him better. Similarly, the 8% of undecided polled could possibly be viewed as having reservations about the US Senator. As I indicated earlier, Brownback has been a sizable force in Kansas politics for the better part of a decade or longer, and to think that there are people who have not decided their feelings on Brownback bode well for Holland. So, assuming these things, one could make a convincing argument that there is 42% of Kansans that do NOT want Brownback as Governor next year.

After only one week of a legitimate candidate in the race, this is an interesting situation for the Democratic Party here in Kansas. The only remaining questions is whether or not the party will act on this. We'll have to keep an eye on the polls in the coming months, but this is not a bad place to start.

Having said all this... Democrats will have a lot of work to do and a win would still be considered a MONUMENTAL upset.

preebo 4 years, 9 months ago

There are some bright signs for State Senator Holland and the KS Democratic Party. First, it should be noted that Rasmussen is definitely a "right" leaning polling group. That being said, with the fact that Brownback has been running for Governor since he ended his long-shot bid for President in 2008, it is safe to say that his numbers have nowhere to go - but down. Following that, his (Brownback) 55% is well established, however, Tom Holland's (33%) candidacy for KS Governor was only a young week old when the polling was run.

My argument is that how much better can people know Brownback; his name recognition has peaked and his record has yet to be reviewed. If you take the 3 % of those surveyed who have chosen other than Brownback it could be gleaned that there are reservations about Brownback for those potential voters - leaving the possibility that they could vote Holland, once they get to know him better. Similarly, the 8% of undecided polled could possibly be viewed as having reservations about the US Senator. As I indicated earlier, Brownback has been a sizable force in Kansas politics for the better part of a decade or longer, and to think that there are people who have not decided their feelings on Brownback bode well for Holland. So, assuming these things, one could make a convincing argument that there is 42% of Kansans that do NOT want Brownback as Governor next year.

After only one week of a legitimate candidate in the race, this is an interesting situation for the Democratic Party here in Kansas. The only remaining questions is whether or not the party will act on this. We'll have to keep an eye on the polls in the coming months, but this is not a bad place to start.

Having said all this... Democrats will have a lot of work to do and a win would still be considered a MONUMENTAL upset.

Ralph Reed 4 years, 9 months ago

@JK: Why do some posters have 2x and 3x posts for a single comment. I know it's not intentional. Is there some lag in the servers causing people to think their post hasn't taken?


@preebo: good comments. (All three times (grin)).


@Jimo: I would love to see that asked at a press conference.

georgiahawk 4 years, 9 months ago

Verity, there are stupid people all over the world. What makes you think that Comrade can't be one of them? Based on his "contributions" to this or any article I would say that there is a very good chance he is indeed one of them.

yourworstnightmare 4 years, 9 months ago

jimo wrote: "Q 1: Sam, what can you do to assure Kansans that your first action as governor wouldn't be to pardon or commute the sentence of Scott Roeder?"

Great question. And a serious question that must be asked.

Brownback is the guy for the Kansas Taliban ideologues, but most other Kansans either don't like him or are waiting for a final decision.

yourworstnightmare 4 years, 9 months ago

jimo wrote: "Q 1: Sam, what can you do to assure Kansans that your first action as governor wouldn't be to pardon or commute the sentence of Scott Roeder?"

Great question. And a serious question that must be asked.

Brownback is the guy for the Kansas Taliban ideologues, but most other Kansans either don't like him or are waiting for a final decision.

Richard Heckler 4 years, 9 months ago

It is his party that sat in control of regulatory agencies and watched the economy of the USA go south in a very big way.

During the 8 years of the Bush admin and 16 years of Brownback we saw no new industries come alive and 10 million people put out of work in a short period of time.

What collecting unemployment does for people is make them very very nervous as people sit back and WATCH no new employment being generated by the very group of people that put them out of work.... government politicians. By turning a blind eye to what was on the horizon the USA government put 10 million people out of work in 8 short years and Brownback is still in office..... when he shows up for work.

It is obviously my position if the government is going to put people out of work then the new government admin must establish new sources of employment to keep the economy from going down further. Brownback has no clue about new employment. He will keep talking about the Bio industry however that is not new and politicians are spending tons of our tax dollars as bribe.

Brownback republicans do not believe in raising taxes yet very quick to spend them? How does that make economic sense? I have a feeling Brownback has no idea what he is talking about.

Steve Miller 4 years, 9 months ago

They all have stink on their fingers, votem all out...

verity 4 years, 9 months ago

Maybe I do have too high a view of people's intelligence (ref. your remark Georgiahawk), but I don't think even Brownback is stupid enough to pardon Roeder. He's more of the sneaky, underhanded kind---reference his connections to the C Street Family and Opus Dei. Those are both secret organizations---and from what I have read---neither believe in the democratic process of government.

50YearResident 4 years, 9 months ago

Maybe these double and tripple posts are the reason Sam did so well in the poll and they forgot to reprogram the counting machine from double and trippling each vote cast. which has flowed over to the comments.

BigDog 4 years, 9 months ago

Isn't that about the same percentage that the last person received who ran against Brownback for Senate?

Above 50% in early polls is typically a good sign if you are a candidate. There are Democrats who are going to vote for whomever was nominated along with those who would never vote for Brownback. 33% is a good start but when you opponent has 58% favoability and 55% voting support ..... not good.

Not a big fan of Sam Brownback but I wouldn't find this poll as extremely positive if I were the Tom Holland campaign.

preebo 4 years, 9 months ago

"Not a big fan of Sam Brownback but I wouldn't find this poll as extremely positive if I were the Tom Holland campaign."

I echo your sentiment, as I am not a fan of Brownback, but the rest of your statement doesn't seem to hold water.

The positive sign, and I say this cautiously, is that Brownback who has been a fixture in Kansas politics for the better part of two decades, and who has been running for the Governorship for the better part of 18 months, should be up to 60 - 65%. Kansas is right-leaning and the amount of registered Republicans outnumber Democrats handily, but yet you have 42% of potential voters who do not like Brownback, even after his long career.

What this means for Democrats, is that a right-leaning poll (Rasmussen) shows only 22 points different into one week of a real opposition. Brownback's numbers can really only go down, and it could be possible for Holland to pick off the undecided and alternative candidate's followers to make this a race.

Make no mistake, this is Brownback's race to lose, but Holland does have to be encouraged by that 42%.

MyName 4 years, 9 months ago

The reality is that 55% is more than enough to win election. That number isn't likely to move much considering the fact that Brownback is a known quantity.

There are two big things that could shift this: one, a serious 3rd party challenger from the right of Brownback and willing to challenge his fiscal record. Or two, a major mistake by Brownback that pushes all of the Moderate GOP away from him (something like a move to pardon Roeder or commute his sentence might do that).

What bothers me most is that neither candidate can legitimately claim they are part of the solution or part of the problem when it comes to the economy and budget situation, which is what most voters actually care about. I think it'll be a really uninspiring campaign from both camps with all of the answers being forced into the legislature, which has been in a "man the pumps" strategy instead of trying to show any actual leadership.

verity 4 years, 9 months ago

Can somebody explain to me what a 4.5 percentage points margin of error means? I know it has something to do with the statistical method used, but that seems kind of high from what I recall from other polls.

As much as I dislike negative campaigning, I think that is the only way Tom Holland can win.

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