London ? The massive leak of U.S. military records relating to the war in Afghanistan is a significant embarrassment to the Pentagon. It gives a new level of detail in understanding the difficulties faced by Allied forces. But the real casualty of the 90,000 leaked logs is more likely to be political: it must cast serious doubt on David Cameron’s assertion that the war can be won in time to start a British withdrawal in 2014.

The files show that there have been many more civilian casualties than previously admitted. Thousands of military reports demonstrate the Taliban to be both more broadly based and more formidable than is often assumed. The U.S. has resorted to using special forces teams to capture or kill Taliban leaders, while the Taliban have access to heat-seeking missiles. The leaks also show the firm conviction among U.S. military intelligence that Pakistan’s ISI intelligence service is helping to arm, train and finance the Taliban.

All of this might contradict the official U.S. line — but most of it was already assumed by many commentators. What is new is the far greater detail than before, showing just how intractable are the challenges that Allied forces face. The reports go up to December 2009, but while the White House may claim that the strategy has changed since then, the fundamental problems of the Taliban’s resilience and its outside help remain unchanged. That makes the recent shift in British policy — with the Prime Minister claiming that some forces could even be withdrawn from next year, prior to a pullout in 2014 — look like wishful thinking indeed.

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