Farnborough airshow reflects health of global aircraft market

A Boeing 787 Dreamliner lands, for the first time outside the U.S., at the Farnborough International Airshow, Farnborough, England, Sunday. Deliveries of the long-range passenger jet to the first Japanese customer have been delayed by more than two years due to production problems. Boeing executives have said they aim to deliver the first Dreamliner by the end of 2010, but they have cautioned that the delivery could be delayed to early 2011.

? Boeing Co.’s long-anticipated 787 jet touched down on British soil Sunday, tipping its wings to the crowd and building buzz at the Farnborough International Airshow, the industry’s premier event.

The arrival of the blue-and-white 787 after years of delay underlined hopes that the two-year downturn in the aviation and defense industry is nearing a bottom. Boeing Chief Executive Jim McNerney claimed that the 787 would be “the way planes are going to be built for the next 80 years.”

But he acknowledged that delivery of the aircraft — already more than two years overdue because of production problems — could slip into 2011. He blamed administrative delays.

“End of the year is the plan,” McNerney said. “There could be some paperwork that pushes it into next year.”

Concerns remain about the slow global economic recovery and sharp cuts to national defense budgets.

New orders for commercial aircraft are likely to be restrained and restricted to buyers from strong emerging markets in the Middle East and Asia, while activity on the defense side of the show is expected to be muted.

Boeing and its archrival Airbus, meanwhile, head into the event facing growing challenges to their duopoly in the mid-sized civilian jet market from smaller manufacturers, including Canada’s Bombardier and Brazil’s Embraer.

Analysts, who are looking to Farnborough to take the pulse of the industry’s health, expect the event to be more upbeat than last year’s sister show in Le Bourget outside Paris, but they aren’t holding their breath for commercial plane orders anywhere near the record-breaking $88.7 billion worth announced in Farnborough in 2008.

“A lot depends on if the economic recovery continues, if there is a double dip in the recession, then all bets are off,” Forecast International analyst Raymond Jaworowski said. “We should start to see orders accelerate late this year.”

The Geneva-based International Air Transport Association has forecast that global industry profits will reach $2.5 billion this year, an upturn from the huge $9.4 billion loss in 2009.

Analysts expect Asia and North America to lead the recovery, with Europe lagging behind. Strikes at some airlines, the debt crisis and the volcanic ash cloud that caused major disruptions this spring are all hurting Europe’s recovery.

More than 1,000 exhibitors from 38 countries have signed up for Farnborough with delegations from Egypt, Taiwan and Morocco will be attending for the first time. Organizers also cited stronger interest from major players China and Russia.