10 teams that can win it all: No. 6, Wisconsin

Each week in this space, KUSports.com online editor Jesse Newell will take a statistical look at one of the 10 teams that has the best chance of taking this year’s NCAA title. The basic statistics are up-to-date, but the advanced statistics in this article do not include Wisconsin’s 63-56 loss to Illinois on Tuesday night.

Team: Wisconsin

Record: 18-6

AP/Coaches Ranking: 11th/13th

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 4th

Strengths

If you’ve followed college basketball for any length of time, you know that Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan has earned the reputation as a defensive coach. This year’s UW team falls into line with many of Ryan’s teams of the past, as the Badgers are fifth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Specifically, UW thrives in two areas on the defensive end: two-point defense and defensive rebounding. Opponents have made just 43.9 percent of their shots from inside the arc against the Badgers (national average is 47.6 percent), while Wisconsin also has come away with the defensive rebound on 74.7 percent of its opponents’ misses (the third-highest percentage nationally); opponents are averaging just 7.9 offensive rebounds per game against UW.

Though the team’s point totals are usually in the 60s, that doesn’t mean that Wisconsin is playing horrible offensively. In fact, this is where the final score is often misleading. UW plays the 10th-slowest tempo nationally, with the Badgers having about seven fewer offensive possessions per game than the average NCAA team. In those limited tries, UW has been extremely efficient, putting up the 17th-best adjusted offensive efficiency in the nation.

Most of Wisconsin’s success offensive comes from avoiding mistakes. The Badgers are fourth nationally in turnover percentage, giving it away on just 15.7 percent of possessions (national average is 20.7 percent), which comes out to just 9.2 turnovers per game. UW also is a sound team from inside (51.9 percent two-point percentage, 39th nationally) and the free-throw line (73.9 percent, 26th nationally).

Weaknesses

Because of the Badgers’ deliberate style, there will be areas where they don’t excel. They don’t get many offensive rebounds (29.6 percent, 276th nationally) and also don’t force a ton of turnovers (11.8 per game). UW also averages just 17.9 free throws per game, a low number for an 18-win team. Ryan doesn’t have a deep rotation either, with bench players taking up just 25.7 percent of the Badgers’ minutes (300th nationally). Also, UW gets nearly no offensive production from its power forward spot, as just 11.7 percent of the team’s scoring has come from that position (ranking last in the NCAA).

Wisconsin already has dropped six games, meaning there have been a few letdowns along the way, too. That includes Tuesday’s 63-56 stinker at home against Illinois. When teams show inconsistency from game to game, it’s a bit tougher to predict them to have a long winning streak come March. UW has played the seventh-toughest schedule according to KenPom, though, so that shouldn’t be overlooked, either.

Players to watch

The biggest one to watch over the next few weeks will be 6-foot-10 center Jon Leuer. The junior broke his left wrist on Jan. 11, and he was expected to miss four to six weeks because of the injury. Leuer was off to a tremendous start for Wisconsin, averaging 15.4 points and 6.2 rebounds while hoisting up shots on 30.9 percent of the possessions he was on the floor (72nd nationally). Most impressive for Leuer, though, are his low turnover numbers, as he has just 18 turnovers in 446 minutes (or one every 24.8 minutes of game time). How well and how quickly Leuer recovers from his injury will go a long way into determining Wisconsin’s NCAA Tournament fate.

After Leuer, Wisconsin’s three best scorers are all guards: senior Trevon Hughes (15.3 points per game), senior Jason Bohannon (11.3 ppg) and sophomore Jordan Taylor (9.9 ppg). Hughes’ numbers look to be a bit inflated by his high shot totals (he shoots 28.2 percent of the time when he’s in the game), while Bohannon appears to be the most efficient of the group, making 57.4 percent of his twos and 37.7 percent of his threes. He shoots on just 17 percent of his team’s possessions.

Bottom line

Wisconsin’s slow-it-down style is different from the norm and difficult for many teams to prepare for in the NCAA Tournament. Though the Badgers have been inconsistent and also have already lost six games, their underlying numbers suggest that they have the balance offensively and defensively to be able to compete with any team on any night. If center Jon Leuer returns to form following his broken wrist, look for Wisconsin to be a Final Four contender.