Archive for Thursday, August 19, 2010

Campaign Notebook: Republicans lead all Kansas statewide races, according to poll

August 19, 2010


— Republicans are leading all statewide races in Kansas, according to a new SurveyUSA poll.

The poll was conducted Thursday, Aug. 12 through Sunday, Aug. 15 for KWCH-TV in Wichita.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Sam Brownback and his lieutenant governor running mate Jeff Colyer lead the Democratic ticket of Tom Holland and Kelly Kultala, 67 percent to 25 percent.

Republican Jerry Moran leads Democrat Lisa Johnston 69 percent to 23 percent in the U.S. Senate race.

Republican Kris Kobach has a 62 percent to 30 percent edge over Democratic Secretary of State Chris Biggs.

Republican Ron Estes leads State Treasurer Dennis McKinney 61 percent to 32 percent.

And Republican Derek Schmidt leads Attorney General Steve Six 54 percent to 34 percent.

The survey was based on 588 likely voters. The margin of error was plus of minus 3.9 percentage points in the governor’s race; 3.8 percentage points in the senate race; 4 percent in the secretary of state race; 4 percent in the treasurer’s race; and 4.1 percent in the attorney general’s race.


jmadison 7 years, 6 months ago

The Dems need Pres.. Obama to come and campaign for them.

Centerville 7 years, 6 months ago

Forget Obama. All they need is Kathleen Sibilius working her charm. Come on back, Kathy, we love your death panels!!

KUJayhawk2009 7 years, 6 months ago

Is anybody surprised? Failed NOBama policy, all you libs can cry and whine, but you voted for the loof.

avoice 7 years, 6 months ago

588 polled? Why report on such insignificant polling numbers? Compared to the number of likely voters in Kansas, this is a dismal sampling.

notajayhawk 7 years, 6 months ago

Why, you're right. We should ask everyone. Oh, wait, we do that - except it's called an 'election', not a 'poll'.

avoice 7 years, 6 months ago

And your point is? There should be no polls, just wait until elections? All I'm saying is: If you're going to bother to poll people, at least get a pseudo-representative sampling. The actual error rate on this poll would be sky high when weighed against the real number of "likely voters."

notajayhawk 7 years, 6 months ago

Had you read the story, you would have seen that the margin of error was 4% or less. Take a statistics class.

mr_right_wing 7 years, 6 months ago

Forget Rush, Beck & Hannity; they're a bunch of HACKS! (...and one is a convicted druggie.)

The Phil Hendrie Show...satire of an industry (talk radio) that takes itself way too seriously!!

wastewatcher 7 years, 6 months ago

The legacy of the LIBERAL SEBELIUS administration, at a time when the Dems should be at their strongest, it is apparent they are at their weakest. Remember all of the false starts for a candidate for governor, apparently all of those who just couldn't do it knew something. And this pole proves it. The ULTRA LIBERALS like HOLLAND, SIX and the rest are HISTORY.

Mixolydian 7 years, 6 months ago

Wow, the AG's and Secretary of State poll results seem out of whack. I would have thought they would be much closer, if not in the democrat's advantage. I'm voting for Six and Biggs.

MyName 7 years, 6 months ago

I'm not sure if I trust the "likely voter" part of the poll, how do they decide who is a "likely voter"? And how do they contact the people to poll them?

In any case, it's still early, at least for all of the races but the governor's which was decided in February.

Steve Jacob 7 years, 6 months ago

I just can't believe Six and Biggs are that far behind, so this poll is pretty questionable. Granted Brownback and Moran will win big, but I would hope the state democratic party would put all their money into the AG and S of S elections (and a couple of US House races).

BigDog 7 years, 6 months ago

I would put my political leanings between moderate to conservative. I don't for a second believe the races are this lopsided except for the US Senate and Governor's race.

The Attorney General, State Treasurer, and Secretary of State's race, I will assume are much closer than that.

We know all of the races will tighten, and like those in politics say ..... the race doesn't really begin until after Labor Day.

slowplay 7 years, 6 months ago

Nothing new here folks. If I lived anywhere else except Lawrence, I'd shoot myself. Way too much inbreeding in the western and southern portions of the state, and they will always vote republican.

straightforward 7 years, 6 months ago

Oh yes, those blue collared, redneck hicks are the root of all the world's problems. Obviously Lawrencians are intellectually superior so why bother with democracy?

BigDog 7 years, 6 months ago

1,000 Kansas adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 08/12/10 through 08/15/10. Of them, 882 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 588 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election.

I would like to know how they came up with who they interviewed and how they determined those who were likely to vote.

Interesting that almost 900 were registered to vote and they determined almost 600 would vote ........ 66% of those surveyed who were registered to vote are likely to vote.

I believe election officials would consider it a dream to have that high of percentage of registered voters actually vote.

Bob_Keeshan 7 years, 6 months ago

Note that SurveyUSA is predicting 58% of the electorate will be registered Republican, even though only 43% of registered voters are.

For that to hold true, like 2/3 of all registered Republican would vote while a little more than 1/3 of all other voters would vote. That math just doesn't hold up, only a partisan spouting undocumented hyperbole would make such a claim.

The results here appear to be off by about 7 to 10 points in both directions, or 15-20 points overall.

notajayhawk 7 years, 6 months ago

Maybe they don't think Tom Holland is going to bring out the Democratic vote in droves. Incidentally, do you have any figures showing what percentage of the electorate are Republicans in a typical mid-term election in Kansas?

The methodology was, I'm confident, no different than that used by every pollster in every poll. Apparently you only have a problem with the methodology of those that show overwhelming support for Republican candidates. In any event, in your wildest delusions, bobbie, do you seriously think any of the above-mentioned Democratic candidates will win their race?

Bob_Keeshan 7 years, 6 months ago

It is nice that you are confident of that, but it is also statistically unfounded.

I think the margins in the poll are off by 15-20 points, oh wait I said that already. As you like to say in your ad hominem attacks - reading is important, try it sometime.

Spouting hyperbole is no replacement for a statistically based argument. Turnout variation is never going to be 30% between different registrations, there's no statistical support for that.

You may now return to your regularly scheduled trolling. Can't wait for your standard I'm rubber and you're glue response.

notajayhawk 7 years, 6 months ago

I'm glad you think the polls are off by 15-20 points, bobbie - those numbers came from where, again - other than what you pulled from your diaper? Oh, that's right - I forgot, you make up the numbers you post, and have admitted as such.

"Turnout variation is never going to be 30% between different registrations, there's no statistical support for that."

So I'll ask you again (and you'll duck the question again, I'm sure): What IS the party breakdown in those who cast votes in a typical Kansas mid-term election?

Oh, and how about the other question you ignored, bobbie? Do you think that any of the Democratic candidates mentioned in the story have any chance of winning their race?

Your hostility is amusing, not only for its ineptitude but for its lack of reason. It isn't my questioning of your made-up numbers that make you look like a fool, it was the fact that you made them up in the first place. You should really look up the definition of a troll sometime, cretin; someone who makes up their own statistics and offering them as proof that a published story is incorrect probably qualifies. Your posts at least used to include some information, and were of some interest. Now you've just become a joke, captain.

Bob_Keeshan 7 years, 6 months ago

Yes, your government-funded opinion is well established.

Funniest thing I've read all day - you accusing another poster of being hostile. Get yourself a paper bag and breathe, sister.

notajayhawk 7 years, 6 months ago

And gee, what a big surprise: bobbie didn't answer a single one of the questions! What a shock!

You must have missed them - here, let me refresh your memory:

1) Where did you get the number that you cited when claiming the polls were off by 15-20 points?

2) In a typical mid-term election, what IS the voter breakdown by party affiliation?

3) Do you think that any of the Democratic candidates mentioned in the story will win their races?

And I just added this one, bobbie:

4) In the SurveyUSA poll, was the party breakdown how the respondents are actually registered, or how they self-identified?

What, bobbie? You have no answers? You mean you've just been talking out of your ***, you really don't know what you're talking about, and you're nothing more than a whiny troll?

Again, what a shock.

Bob_Keeshan 7 years, 6 months ago

Your'e already wearing a clown suit, stop fitting yourself for a wig and rubber nose.

notajayhawk 7 years, 6 months ago

And gee, what a surprise: bobbie didn't answer a single one of the questions! What a shock!

Won't bother repeating them again, bobbie. You've already answered "I don't know".

Bob_Keeshan 7 years, 6 months ago

Stop stealing pills at your government funded job.

notajayhawk 7 years, 6 months ago

Oh, and by the way, bobbie - was the party affiliation in the SurveyUSA poll how the respondents are registered, or how they identified themselves?

bd 7 years, 6 months ago

Get over it libs! The party is over, your boy blew it and now its time for a REAL change!

Tea anyone!

1029 7 years, 6 months ago

This ain't suprising at all. Kansans know whats best for them, and it all starts with family values and low taxes.

Scott Drummond 7 years, 6 months ago

The republicans have left the state in such good shape with their policies.

slowplay 7 years, 6 months ago

We are talking only about Kansas where the Republicans already have a stronghold. We have already experienced the kind of change the Republicans are talking about and if I recall that didn't work too well. Unfortunately, voters have a "what have you done for me lately" mentality, and any gains the repubs make this November, will be extinguished by 2012. As an independent, I'll still vote for the best candidate and I would love to see the republican basket full of great ideas, but so far I see nothing but the same old stuff.

notajayhawk 7 years, 6 months ago

"We are talking only about Kansas where the Republicans already have a stronghold."

Have you seen the national polls?

"We have already experienced the kind of change the Republicans are talking about"

And now we've had a chance to see what the Democrats would change. And before the rousing chorus of 'It takes more than two years to fix the damage Bush caused yada yada yada' starts up, I'm not talking about results. I'm talking about the methods the Democrats are using or plan to use. And after seeing that, we want the Republicans back.

Flap Doodle 7 years, 6 months ago

This winter I will season my food with the bitter tears of defeated Democrats.

feeble 7 years, 6 months ago

Internals on this poll can be found here:

It's important to note that this phone based poll suffers the same problem as many other phone based polls in recent years, the pollster only calls landlines.

This is fairly obvious when you look at the internals of the Governor's race:

18-34 year olds favor Brownback over Holland 79% - 16%, where voters over 65 favor Brownback 58% to 36%, which is counter-intuitive because we would expect voters under 35 to be less conservative than voters over 65, especially in Kansas.

It seems very likely from looking at the polling that voters in the 18-35 and 36-45 age groups a drastically underrepresented in these polls. This can be handwaved away by noting that voter participation is greater among older voters.

Some of other internals seem really, really odd. Maybe someone better at reading polls can explain how 66% of respondents who would vote for Brownback earn less than $50K and 67% make more than $50K?

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