A recent Journal-World story about the problem of high school dropouts got our attention. How big a problem is this in Lawrence and Douglas County?

Well, as it turns out, it’s sort of hard to tell.

A representative of Kansas DropINs, offered some pretty startling statistics at the meeting featured in the J-W story. According to figures the group had obtained from the Kansas Department of Education for the 2006-07, Douglas County had a dropout rate of 11.8 percent and the state’s rate was 10.3 percent.

Wow, is that possible? One in every ten Kansas high school students doesn’t make it to graduation?

A look at the education department’s Web site revealed very different figures for 2006-07. Lawrence was listed there with a dropout rate of 2.9 percent, and other Douglas County districts were below that. The statewide rate was reported at 1.3 percent. Which is right?

Well, half a dozen phone calls later, we find out the answer is: Both. It just depends on how you figure it.

The DropIN rate is a “cohort” rate that follows students from ninth grade through graduation and tallies up dropouts from each year. The other dropout rate is calculated by dividing the number of dropouts in grades 7-12 by the enrollment in those same grades.

So is that clear? Someone else probably understands the figures better than we do, but the differences in how dropout statistics are analyzed makes it a little difficult to track any trends. Not only that, but the way the rate is figured keeps changing. In fact, one education official said the counting method is scheduled to change again next year.

Interestingly, even though the two numbers cited above are far apart, if you track either set for several years, there is a notable local spike in the local dropout rate between the 2005-06 school year and 2006-07. The set that looks just at Lawrence shows an increase from 0.8 percent to 2.9 percent; the other set, which looks at the entire county, rises from 5.2 percent to 11.8 percent.

Could it be that the closure of Lawrence Alternative High School after the 2004-05 school year had an impact on the dropout rate? Could cutbacks in programs like WRAP or the secondary virtual school program have been a factor? Maybe, but, again, it’s hard to tell.

Asked about the local figures, new Superintendent Rick Doll probably had the best answer. It is hard to follow the figures, he said, because they keep changing, but “We’re concerned about every kid we lose.”

At least two sets of figures indicate the Lawrence district is losing more kids than it did a few years ago. Maybe there’s another counting method that defies that trend, but it seems like a problem that demands some study and action by local officials.