San Francisco Online retailers hope the convenience of the Web, plus discounts and deals, spur still-nervous shoppers to spend more online this holiday season — even as traditional retailers brace for mediocre sales.
Internet analysts at comScore Inc. expect online retail revenue to rise 3 percent to $28.8 billion for the months of November and December. That includes the Web sites of traditional retailers, such as Macy’s, but excludes auctions, travel and large corporate purchases.
Meanwhile, U.S. holiday retail sales — excluding online — are expected to drop 1 percent from last year, according to the National Retail Federation, the largest retail trade group.
Online estimates and data-gathering methods vary, but e-commerce analysts and Web retailers agree: This year can’t possibly be as bad as last year, when the shock of the financial meltdown was still fresh for consumers. ComScore charted a 3 percent drop for Web retail that holiday season — the first such decline since it started tracking the category in 2001.
Much of the growth expected in online shopping — which now accounts for about 7 percent of overall retail sales, according to Forrester Research — is attributed to one factor in particular: Shopping online is a major time saver. You can sidestep crowds, compare prices and ship gifts anywhere without leaving your couch or taking off your bunny slippers.
Jennifer Lankford, 28, expects to buy gifts on the Web for her young cousins and boyfriend this year, saying she hates waiting in lines.
“I can only spend so much time in stores or in a mall before I need to get out of there,” she said.
For Lankford and many other consumers, online shopping is also synonymous with bargains. Steep discounts and free shipping are expected to be the norm this holiday season.
EBay Inc. is trying to woo customers to its huge online marketplace by focusing on holiday deals that include free shipping and guaranteed returns on new items from sellers.
EBay and other e-commerce sites may also get a boost from shoppers who turn to the Web for items that can be hard to find at “brick-and-mortar” stores.
Big retailers such as Toys R Us Inc. and Best Buy Co. also are using the Web, especially social sites like Facebook, to steer buyers to discounts. Forrester analyst Sucharita Mulpuru said more companies are giving out coupon codes on Twitter in particular.
That approach might be becoming more widespread not only because it helps retailers reach customers, but also because the method’s effectiveness is easily tracked.