Any improvement in the national economy in 2009 is likely to be uncertain and slow, some business and financial experts say.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty all over the board,” said Doug Houston, a Kansas University professor and area director in finance and economics in the School of Business.

Much of the uncertainty centers on what the federal government might do, including President-elect Barack Obama’s administration, Congress and the Federal Reserve, Houston said.

“I think a lot of firms are too frightened to make bets investing because they don’t know what the government is going to pull out next,” he said.

At the national level, financial institutions should begin loosening credit, said Don Johnston, executive vice president of the northeast Kansas region for Intrust Bank.

“We’re still loaning money on the local scene but nationally it’s been tight as a drum,” said Johnston, of Lawrence.

Nevertheless, some people locally aren’t asking for loans because they face uncertainties, Johnston said. They are worried about their job while others want to make sure decisions such as buying a house are made at the right time. They don’t want to make a purchase and then see interest rates drop a week later, Johnston said. They also are wary of trying to sell their old house while housing prices are down, he said.

Houston also thinks credit will loosen, which could spur businesses to expand. That would be good news for the economy in terms of creating new jobs, he said.

Another round of government stimulus packages for middle-class taxpayers, which the Obama advisers are working on, also will help, Houston said. Whether taxpayers will use stimulus money to spend or pay down debt is hard to determine; they may do both, he said.

It’s ironic that the U.S. consumer is known for spending too much and saving too little, and yet consumers are at a point where everybody realizes they better hold back, Houston said.

“When everybody puts the brakes on (spending) at the same time it doesn’t help a lot in terms of macro economics, but it’s hard to fault the individual,” he said.

In the long run, the federal bailouts could be a problem for future taxpayers, especially if bailouts in the form of loans to the auto industry aren’t paid back, Houston and Johnston said. The auto industry still needs to become globally competitive, Houston said. But Johnston thinks automakers are getting a handle on their problems.

Both Houston and Johnston think economic recovery is going to take awhile but neither wants to predict how long. A start could come with a new attitude and steady, pragmatic leadership in Washington, D.C., they said.

“There’s going to be some new efforts by a new administration to do things differently,” Johnston said. “These kind of things inject some positiveness into the whole atmosphere.”

The nation has “a lot of smart people” looking at the economic situation, Houston said.

“This is an amazing country and I think the resiliency is there,” he said. “I just hope we don’t get bogged down in political posturing.”