Santiago de Cuba, Cuba ? President Raul Castro will speak today from the same colonial balcony where his now ailing brother Fidel proclaimed victory a half-century ago — marking the 50th anniversary of the Cuban revolution amid economic uncertainty.

The momentous occasion will be celebrated with a low-key official ceremony in the country’s second-largest city, Santiago, long considered the cradle of Cuban independence.

In a sign of Raul Castro’s pragmatic, reserved style, officials toned down the festivities after three major hurricanes caused $10 billion in damage on the island this year.

The likely absence of Fidel Castro, 82, who handed power to his younger brother in 2006 after an undisclosed intestinal ailment, is expected to fuel new speculation about his precarious health.

Castro has not been seen in public in more than two years.

Concerts and other cultural events were planned throughout the country, including a free show by the popular Cuban band Los Van Van at the Anti-Imperialist Tribunal in front of the U.S. Interest Section, the former American Embassy. Cuban youth organizations will recreate Castro’s 1959 caravan from Santiago to Havana in the coming days.

In the tree-shaded plaza in Santiago where Fidel proclaimed victory after U.S.-backed dictator Fulgencio Batista fled the country on Jan. 1, 1959, workers put up Cuban flags, revolutionary banners and giant TV screens on New Year’s Eve. Tourists roamed the colonial square on a warm day as ordinary Cubans went about their business.

Reyna Rodriguez, a 57-year-old seamstress, peered inside a hard-currency store and lamented that she couldn’t shop there because she only had Cuban pesos. This is a common complaint among Cubans.

Still, Rodriguez, who is black, said the revolution enabled her two grown children to become professionals. “Look at the color of my skin,” she said. “We have to defend the revolution.”

Jose Andres Centeno, 55, shopping for groceries with his 6-year-old daughter Hani, said he hoped 2009 would bring better economic times for his family.

“We’ve had to cut back on food at times in order to have enough money for shoes and clothing,” he said. “We hope life improves. Every Cuban is born to struggle. We’re the most optimistic people on earth.”

In a hint of where Cuba will be headed after the big anniversary, Raul Castro announced austerity measures last week intended to pull the country out of the economic morass caused by the late-season hurricanes and the global financial crisis.

Castro, 77, told the National Assembly that the country’s trade and budget deficits had ballooned because of rising import costs and falling prices for exports. He called for an end to handouts that he said discouraged people from working.

“The victory of the 1st of January did not mark the end of the struggle,” he said, “but the start of a new stage.”

U.S.-based analysts said the communist island’s faltering economy represents the biggest challenge to the revolution’s survival.