Sen. John McCain’s choice of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate is an interesting, if controversial, move. I do not believe, as some have suggested, that this will win over very many Democratic women who supported Sen. Hillary Clinton. Palin and Clinton share few, if any, political beliefs, and it is hard for me to imagine Clinton supporters feeling comfortable with Palin’s views on abortion, the environment, or intelligent design.

On the other hand, I would imagine that many social conservatives, concerned about McCain’s views, will be delighted by Palin’s candidacy precisely because of her views on these matters. I believe that the main strategic advantage of having Palin as McCain’s running mate is that she will energize social conservatives about the Republican ticket and assure that they won’t stay home on Election Day.

I have been interested in very many radio listeners who have been calling in to conservative talk shows over the past few days saying that their main reason for supporting Palin is that she will do all that she can as vice president – and, perhaps, as president some day – to ban abortions in the United States. Once again, as in other recent elections, the abortion issue overrides issues of economic or foreign policy in many voters’ minds. While I would not dream of suggesting that abortion is an unimportant issue, I would suggest that it is not and should not be the sole deciding issue in picking a president and vice president for voters on any side of the issue.

Let us assume that McCain and Palin win the election in November and take office in January. Even if, in the unlikely event that Congress were to be in favor of outlawing abortion, this is not something within the power of Congress to do. The only real way in which McCain could change abortion law would be by nominating people to the United States Supreme Court who believe that abortion is not a right protected by the U.S. Constitution.

To begin with, this would require that one of the sitting justices who currently support a constitutional right to an abortion resigns. Justices have a tendency to stay on the court until there is a president in place who will appoint a successor who shares their views. Second, even if McCain were to make such a nomination, the nominee would have to be confirmed by a majority vote in the Senate. Given the current and likely near future composition of the Senate, this seems highly unlikely.

Even if such a nominee were confirmed, and a case were brought to overrule Roe v. Wade, this would still require five votes to achieve. Justices of the Supreme Court have, in the past at least, shown a remarkable ability not to vote in ways presidents who appointed them expected. But even if Roe were overturned, then all this would achieve would be to throw the decision on abortion back to the states.

In such an eventuality, I think that it is quite likely that a number of states, perhaps including Kansas, would ban abortion. However, I also believe that many states, like New York and California, would not do so. Thus, at best, after a number of years of judicial and legislative wrangling, abortion would remain legal in some states. Thus, any woman wanting an abortion would have to travel to a state which permitted the procedure. Certainly, this would make it very difficult for many women to get abortions, but it would not banish abortion from American shores.

Given the scenarios outlined above, I think it is fair to say that even if everything went the way anti-abortion groups wanted, the end result would be far from easy to achieve, would take a great deal of time, and, in the end, not end abortions, but simply make them more difficult for some women (mostly poor women who cannot afford to travel) to obtain.

Given this, would it not make sense to consider candidates views on abortion to be significant but not the only issue of importance?

The United States is going through rough times. People are hungry and unemployed. Our stature abroad is in decline and our military is strained. The next president must deal with all of these issues and more. I think it’s very important that every voter, regardless of his or her views on abortion, listen to all the candidates and analyze how they will handle our many national and international problems.

Certainly it is reasonable to take their views on the legality of abortion into consideration, but I think it is dangerous to the future of our country for people to vote for a candidate solely on the basis of the candidate’s views on abortion.