Do the math: One-in-four chance McCain may not survive 2nd term / LJWorld.com

Archive for Wednesday, October 1, 2008

By Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar - Associated Press Writer

October 1, 2008

Washington — If John McCain is elected and goes on to win a second term, there's as much as a one-in-four chance America could see its first woman president - Sarah Palin.

It's actuarial math.

The odds highly favor either McCain or Barack Obama completing a first term in good health. After that, McCain's odds are still fairly solid, but his chances of dying or being in poor health go up faster than Obama's, mainly because of his age.

An Atlanta actuarial company specializing in individualized estimates of life and health expectancy has run the numbers for McCain, 72, and Obama, 47. The firm, Bragg Associates, calculated the odds of the candidates dying in office, adjusted for their known health problems.

McCain would be the oldest president to begin a first term in office. By the end of a second term, Jan. 20, 2017, he would have a 24.44 percent chance of dying, compared with 5.76 percent for Obama, the firm estimates.

"Can either candidate expect to serve two terms in a healthy state? The answer is yes," says James C. Brooks Jr., an actuary with the firm. "They're both in outstanding health for people of their age."

Illness is another issue.

Because chances of developing a serious ailment are higher for any person than are the chances of dying, Bragg used the candidates' medical information to estimate how many years of good health might be in store for each. After all, a debilitating illness could force a president to step down.

The firm estimates that McCain has a health expectancy of 8.4 years, while Obama can expect another 21.9 years of good health. The calculations are from January 2009, covering two terms in office for either candidate. McCain, if he's like others in his age group, would have a cushion of just about five months.

But no one really knows. Actuaries like Brooks make statistical calculations for insurance companies, based on numbers culled from large databases. No matter how sophisticated, they can't predict anyone's future.

"There's a randomness to it that we don't know," said Ron Gebhardtsbauer, who directs the actuarial science program at Penn State's Smeal College of Business.

For example, he said, "if McCain is president, he'll get the best health care in the world. I can't crank that into any of my numbers."

Health expectancy calculations, although relatively new, are becoming increasingly important as people buy long-term-care insurance.

"We've done thousands of these health expectancy calculations for financial planners," Brooks said. "People, especially those with high net worth, are concerned more about the risk of living too long than about what happens if they die prematurely. What if they need long-term care?"

The firm's estimates for McCain and Obama relied on medical information disclosed by the candidates. Bragg Associates has no partisan agenda, said Brooks: "We don't have a dog in this hunt."

Obama's health

He classified the Democrat as a smoker with minor upper respiratory problems, probably linked to his smoking. Obama announced in February that he was trying to quit smoking again, with the aid of nicotine gum.

"We don't consider you a nonsmoker until you stay quit for 12 months," Brooks said.

In the spring, the Obama campaign released a letter from the candidate's doctor declaring him to be in excellent health. He had very good cholesterol levels, his EKG was normal, his pulse was 60 beats per minute, and his blood pressure was an outstanding 90 over 60. Obama also exercises regularly.

But Obama has a family history of cancer. His mother died of ovarian cancer and his maternal grandfather died of prostate cancer. Obama's PSA screening test for prostate cancer showed no sign of abnormalities.

McCain's health

For the Republican, Brooks took into account a history of skin cancer, degenerative arthritis from his Vietnam war injuries, moderately high cholesterol, mild vertigo and that McCain is a former smoker who quit in 1980.

McCain allowed reporters to review eight years of medical records, more than 1,000 pages. They show that he is cancer-free, has a strong heart and is generally in good health.

As a three-time melanoma survivor, his biggest health worry is a recurrence of that cancer. But he is closely watched by his dermatologist, and any future melanoma should be caught in time to be treated successfully. McCain maintains a healthy weight and blood pressure, and takes medication for his cholesterol.

To underscore his chances of long life, he's campaigned with his mother, 96 and going strong.

Discussion

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1 October 2008
at 11:22 a.m.

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cthulhu_4_president (Anonymous) says…

But no one really knows. Actuaries like Brooks make statistical calculations for insurance companies, based on numbers culled from large databases. No matter how sophisticated, they can't predict anyone's future.+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++It seems to me that the article should have stopped right here. As a person who makes their living in the wonderful world of mathematics, I feel compelled to point out a simple universal truth: Statistics have no meaning to the individual. Non-smokers will still get lung cancer, and healthy athletes will still drop dead of heart attacks. You're either one of the lucky %n or the unlucky %100-n, and randomness and chance will have more to do with the outcome than any action or attempted risk analysis that the individual will partake of. With that said, politicizing this kind of data with the hope of influencing votes seems a bit dishonest. Were the odds of an asteriod crashing into the white house figured into the actuarial tables? Why not? It COULD happen!
1 October 2008
at 11:37 a.m.

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tvc (Anonymous) says…

If John McCain is elected and goes on to win a second term, there's as much as a one-in-four chance America could see its first woman president - Sarah Palin.Maybe we should just calculate his risk of him dying this term! Oh, that doesn't help you because….”The odds highly favor either McCain or Barack Obama completing a first term in good health.”* I did not finish reading this article. I'm really tired of hearing about how McCain might die. I hear that I might die if I go vote!!
1 October 2008
at 12:09 p.m.

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BigDog (Anonymous) says…

Exactly ….. young college students and top notch athletes drop over in their prime ….. and then there are people who eat junk food and smoke like a chimney and live to 90 ….. its all a crap shoot
1 October 2008
at 12:15 p.m.

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Mr_Nancy_Boy_To_You (Tom Shewmon) says…

And in some folks opinions, Obama may not make it through a first term, including Harry Smith from CBS.http://www.kutv.com/content/news/watercooler/story.aspx?content_id=a4cde7fe-3b62-4d17-add3-4a1a020d632eLike Sgt. Barnes said in “Platoon”:”Everybody gotta die sometime Red.”
1 October 2008
at 12:20 p.m.

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beatrice (Anonymous) says…

Mom is 96, but what about Dad? Oh, he died of a heart attack at 70. His grandfather died of the same condition at an even younger age.But no worries, folks. McCain isn't going to win the election.
1 October 2008
at 12:33 p.m.

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mike_d (Anonymous) says…

Some of the commentors have missed the point, especially the one who makes his/her 'living in the world of mathematics'. It's a concept called probability. The author was not pretending to predict any mortality or continued health with any certainty, but rather, its probability. You can buy a lottery ticket and maybe be set for life. No one can say with certainty that you will not win, but you better not quit your day job yet, because the probability that you will win is low (but not as low as an asteroid hitting). So, we don't know if McCain will finish his term in good health, the probability is that he will, but he also has a higher probability of NOT finishing than does Obama, and that was part of the author's point. The rest of the point is that if either McCain or Obama doesn't finish, are you happy with who is on deck? President Palin? God help us all, in that case.
1 October 2008
at 12:37 p.m.

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Mr_Nancy_Boy_To_You (Tom Shewmon) says…

This is my analogy. People in rehab have to hit solid-rock-bottom before they can get straight. I view an Obama presidency as the solid-rock-bottom, then America would go through rehab.

1 October 2008
at 12:37 p.m.

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BigDog (Anonymous) says…

Who knows if McCain would choose to run for re-election
1 October 2008
at 12:48 p.m.

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Haiku_Cuckoo (Anonymous) says…

“There is a good chance Obama will not make it either.”The thought of Joe Biden being one heartbeat away from the presidency scares me. He is a guy who, by comparison, makes Bush looks intelligent. During a recent speech he asked Missouri senator Chuck Graham to stand up. That's fine except for the fact that Senator Graham *is * in * a * wheelchair *!! Here are a couple more of “Joe's Gems”:On his running mate: “I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy,” Biden said. “I mean, that's a storybook, man.”On immigrants in Delaware: “In Delaware, the largest growth of population is Indian Americans, moving from India. You cannot go to a 7/11 or a Dunkin' Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent. I'm not joking.”On the economy: “When the stock market crashed, Franklin Roosevelt got on the television and didn't just talk about the princes of greed. He said, 'look, here's what happened.'”
1 October 2008
at 12:53 p.m.

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jmadison (Anonymous) says…

McCain releases his medical records for purview.Obama releases a statement, not his actual medical records.
1 October 2008
at 1:08 p.m.

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Mixolydian (Anonymous) says…

McCain's father had heart problems, McCain doens't and has out-lived his father. It makes sense then, gene pool wise, to look at his fiesty wirey sassy momma at 96. Pretty good odds there. The guy has been running at a pace for the last 18 months that would make most of the soggy bottoms here with 500+ posts and, apparently, nothing better to do, wheeze and keel over.
1 October 2008
at 1:22 p.m.

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cthulhu_4_president (Anonymous) says…

mike_d, I appreciate your comments, and you're absolutely correct. One of the points I was getting at with my post was that the article is written so that many many people will “miss the point”. Instead of taking the time to explain what probability is, the phrasing of the article makes it seem like it is trying to predict how long the cadidates will live (see the title of the article!). This type of sensationalism surrounding the sciences (especially mathematics and statistics) is something I find particularly infuriating, especially around election season. You are right that while the author didn't “claim” to know anything about the life expectancy, the sentiments were very heavily implied such that only those with critical thinking and/or training in statistics could realize that (possibly biased) implications were being presented directly adjacent to empiracally derived scientific facts. Such implications are extremely damaging to objective science. (Come to think of it, I think the entire modern political spectrum is damaging to objective science!)Again, thanks for your comments, and I hope this mini-rant and my previous comment makes more sense in this light.
1 October 2008
at 1:36 p.m.

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Mr_Nancy_Boy_To_You (Tom Shewmon) says…

Don't forget this Biden Manic Disorder induced comment:”Make no mistake about this,” Biden responded. “Hillary Clinton is as qualified or more qualified than I am to be vice president of the United States of America. Let's get that straight. She's a truly close personal friend, she is qualified to be president of the United States of America, she's easily qualified to be vice president of the United States of America, and quite frankly, it might have been a better pick than me. But she's first rate, I mean that sincerely, she's first rate, so let's get that straight.”
1 October 2008
at 3:04 p.m.

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cthulhu_4_president (Anonymous) says…

PS: I just noticed that the only time the word “probability” appears on this entire page is in your post, mike_d. If the intent of the article was to objectively discuss these probabilities, do you not agree that they should have used the word at least once?I'm not trying to argue. I am just curious about, and value, your opinion.
2 October 2008
at 3:47 a.m.

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Kropotkin (Anonymous) says…

Mixolydian scribbled: “McCain's father had heart problems, (sic) McCain doens't (sic) and has out-lived (sic) his father.”BFD. McCain's memory seems to be going. He's had recurrent cancer four times and was subjected to the life-shortening stress of being stuffed in a 4'x8' cell and beaten regularly for 5 1/2 years. Spending decades in Congress, being found guilty of ethics violations in the Keating Five case couldn't have helped much. He has a horrendous temper, a sign of those past stresses, and probably a symptom of PTSD. Witnesses say his wife has even been the victim of vicious, vulgar and vituperous attack. He's on a total disability pension from the Navy. His grandfather dropped dead the day he got home from WWII.He survived four or five horrible plane crashes and a deadly, catastrophic carrier fire that he may have caused. His knees are devoid of cartilege, so he can't exercise. The 10-year chances of survival after diagnosis of stage 2 melanoma for which he was treated, are only 60%. He didn't exactly “release” his records. He allowed reporters in a room where they were denied access to cell phones, laptops, blackberries and pens and pencils, and given a very, very brief look at 300 pages of records. I do Freedom of Information Act and Open Record Act requests regularly. Often what you discover is that some records are not produced, but are heavily redacted or missing altogether. You have to review all of them to have any idea of what you're looking at.This last two years of campaigning and those in 1999-2000 against Karl Rove also must have taken their toll. Until this past week, he hadn't cast a vote since April, of course and it took him 22 hours to get from Mississippi to D.C. for that recent one, and would have missed it had he not been grandstanding. Lance Armstrong could have been more than halfway there from Oxford on a bicycle in that amount of time. I think the old boy's run out of steam.McCain voters should understand that he's got one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel, and they're really voting for an unethical, prodigious liar with miniscule experience and a fourth rate education.