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Archive for Monday, May 19, 2008

Global warming not causing more hurricanes, study says

May 19, 2008

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— Global warming isn't to blame for the recent jump in hurricanes in the Atlantic, concludes a study by a prominent federal scientist whose position has shifted on the subject.

Not only that, warmer temperatures will actually reduce the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic and those making landfall, research meteorologist Tom Knutson reported in a study released Sunday.

In the past, Knutson has raised concerns about the effects of climate change on storms. His new paper has the potential to heat up a simmering debate among meteorologists about current and future effects of global warming in the Atlantic.

Many climate change experts have tied the rise of hurricanes in recent years to global warming and hotter waters that fuel them.

Another group of experts, those who study hurricanes and who are more often skeptical about global warming, say there is no link. They attribute the recent increase to a natural multidecade cycle.

What makes this study different is Knutson, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's fluid dynamics lab in Princeton, N.J.

He has warned about the harmful effects of climate change and has even complained in the past about being censored by the Bush administration on past studies on the dangers of global warming.

He said his new study, based on a computer model, argues "against the notion that we've already seen a really dramatic increase in Atlantic hurricane activity resulting from greenhouse warming."

The study, published online Sunday in the journal Nature Geoscience, predicts that by the end of the century the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic will fall by 18 percent.

Comments

bondmen 6 years, 7 months ago

The headline's first three words say it all "Global Warming Not". For a look at how bad the GW Kooks have the disease see what the Prince of Gaia thinks - Prince Charles: Eighteen months to stop climate change disaster at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/theroyalfamily/1961719/Prince-Charles-Eighteen-months-to-stop-climate-change-disaster.htmlFor some down to earth weather analysis visit: http://www.weatherquestions.com/Roy-Spencer-on-global-warming.htm

devobrun 6 years, 7 months ago

"Study", "research meteorologist Tom Knutsen", "predicts that by the end of the century", "many experts"............ At what point does the press and the general public become disgusted with the lousy science coming from the -ologists in the world?Tom here is predicting the weather to an 18% level of precision, a century in advance.Sad.

SettingTheRecordStraight 6 years, 7 months ago

But now we'll have to change all our movie box covers!

gr 6 years, 7 months ago

"Global warming not causing more hurricanes, study says"But fat people are:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1973230/Fat-people-blamed-for-global-warming.htmlJust pick something you don't like and blame something you don't understand on it. It's the alarmist way.

gr 6 years, 7 months ago

"It seems intuitive that they would pick up more energy from the warmer sea temperatures."Storms are caused by differences in temperatures. The supposed warming is not affecting the equator. Therefore, there is a less of a difference and fewer storms. However, we are now going into a cooling period, so there will become a greater difference leading to increased storms.Just keep in mind, weather happens. For thousands of years, weather has varied. There has been a warming period since the last ice age. Before that there was a cooling period. And it keeps repeating before that.

acoupstick 6 years, 7 months ago

"Dr Knutson's methods have been criticised by other hurricane experts. Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology said his computer model was flawed and his conclusions "demonstrably wrong".Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist, said Dr Knutson's model was poor at assessing tropical weather and "failed to replicate storms with any kind of fidelity". http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1986049/Hurricanes-'are-not-caused-by-global-warming'.htmlPlease recognize that at no point in his study did Knutson disagree with fundamentals of climate change, only with the assertion that higher overall ocean temperatures will lead to more hurricanes. Given the inaccuracy of climate modeling due to the inability of climate models to accurately address cloud formation and activity, I don't think it is responsible for to over-rely on them when it comes to informing one's opinion on the issue.

salad 6 years, 7 months ago

This is what happens when complex science is reduced to sound-bites. Alarmism really annoys me. It annoys me when the Enviros say the sky is falling, and it really annoys me when Bush says we need to wage war to fight them over there so we don't have to fight them here....and that any who disagrees with him is with the terrorists. UHHHGGG!!!

Bill Griffith 6 years, 7 months ago

Studies should continue on this very important subject. For now, the evidence seems to tilt somewhat towards no heavier activity. Certainly a positive outcome if it holds up to further scrutiny. My concern is the intensity levels of the hurricanes that do form. It seems intuitive that they would pick up more energy from the warmer sea temperatures. I know this hypothesis is being looked at closely as well-hopefully the hurricanes will not intensify because of this-but I am afraid they will. Let the research continue to roll in.

a_flock_of_jayhawks 6 years, 7 months ago

acoupstick says..."Please recognize that at no point in his study did Knutson disagree with fundamentals of climate change, only with the assertion that higher overall ocean temperatures will lead to more hurricanes."Thank you, acoupstick. At least someone is grasping this and has it in the proper perspective. To the typical "heads in the sand" crowd here (global warming doesn't exist), it's no surprise that you guys didn't get it - you didn't get it anytime before, either, so why would anyone have a reason to believe that you've recently been enlightened.

workinghard 6 years, 7 months ago

b3 (Anonymous) says: Thats to bad, I was hoping one would finish off that stain upon our country known as New Orleans.What have you got against New Orleans, what makes it worse than say, how about Chicago?

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