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Archive for Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Forecasters predict tornado outbreak on Thursday

June 4, 2008

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— The National Weather Service is giving advance warning of a possible tornado outbreak in the Great Plains on Thursday with conditions similar to a deadly day in 1974 when 39 tornadoes touched down.

Computer forecasting models for Thursday resemble those on June 8, 1974, when more than three dozen tornadoes touched down in the southern Plains and killed 22 people, including six in Emporia.

"I think this event warrants more advance warning," said Robb Lawson, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Wichita.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center has been warning for days of the outbreak.

Some forecasters are predicting the tornadoes could hit a corridor stretching from northern Oklahoma to central Iowa, said Mike Smith, chief executive officer of WeatherData Inc., a subsidiary of AccuWeather.

"Certainly Wichita, Topeka, Emporia, Salina, Chanute ... essentially the eastern half of Kansas should really be paying attention on Thursday," Smith said.

Smith said temperature and humidity patterns for Thursday are similar to the 1974 outbreak, with a wave of energy in the upper atmosphere projected to be in exactly the same position.

With so much humidity in place, storms on Thursday could form and quickly become strong, forecasters said.

"If you take April dynamics and June thermodynamics, you have a potentially disastrous combination," Smith said.

Comments

mmiller 6 years, 6 months ago

So they just upgraded to high risk! LOOK OUT!

Christine Pennewell Davis 6 years, 6 months ago

I will bet on and hot sticky day darn the humidity.

Paul Decelles 6 years, 6 months ago

acg...I agree. In Kansas paranoia about the weather is a good thing. Also I think some people don't like Katie because she's on channel 5 where she is probably told to be a little sensational at times....can you say "Chopper 5?" ten times really fast?

mom_of_three 6 years, 6 months ago

I was just a kid back in 1974, living in Wichita, and I remember hiding from tornadoes, but I don't remember an outbreak. i guess we should be ready for some interesting weather.

Ken Miller 6 years, 6 months ago

"Is that a baby in Brush Creek?" - K. Horner.

kristenkim 6 years, 6 months ago

acg--Was that the tornado that hit around May 8, 2003? Cause there actually was a tornado in Lawrence that day. I had just been in the tornado that hit North Kansas City on May 4, so I was paying particularly close attention to those warnings.

Linda Aikins 6 years, 6 months ago

http://cjonline.com/stories/060408/bre_badweather.shtmlHey pack - maybe you'd rather read the comments in the Topeka Capital-Journal...then let us know whose are more fun.

Scattered 6 years, 6 months ago

Well, I certainly remember that day in 1974!Our baby son was not quite two months old, and we did not have a basement. My mother called us to warn of a tornado, and we raced across town to my sister's house. She had a basement, alright, but it was the kind you entered from a shelter door outdoors. In the torrential rain, a huge mud puddle had formed, and I slipped and nearly dropped Spencer with the tornado headed right towards her neighborhood.As we waited out the storm, water began pouring into her basement from who knows where ( love those rental properties!) She touched a metal bed, and received a tremendous shock.Terrible afternoon, but nothing compared to the day after I brought baby #3 home. I am tremendously thankful that we have such advanced warning! Stay safe everyone.Here's a weather channel tip: put on any type of helmet for added protection. When my grandson was younger, I suggested that they put him in his extra carseat.

Flap Doodle 6 years, 6 months ago

I'm decked out in my flak vest and pleather chaps. Bring it on!

KansasPerson 6 years, 6 months ago

I don't know the thing about the rivers -- but I do know the Eudora story!Not to mention the "Tonganoxie split" which was made up by -- was it Dan Henry? -- but which everyone quotes now as Science!

acg 6 years, 6 months ago

I was watching Katie once back in 03 and there was a tornado heading for Lawrence, where I was living at the time, and she honestly said "Lawrence, I hate to say it, but it's heading right for you. You need to run, now!" So my hubby and I call her KatierunforyourlifeHorner. She's such an alarmist and although the weather is serious, at times, she's always acting like the world is about to end because of some snow or rain. It's quite amusing, actually, to watch her for entertainment purposes. I get all my weather from Katie, because I know I'll get a good healthy dose of paranoia with it.

Michael Throop 6 years, 6 months ago

..we'll see if their tornado outbreak is as accurate as AlGore and his"all the duck billed platypusses will be dead if we don't fight global warming" forecasts !

Linda Aikins 6 years, 6 months ago

In his absence, I would be quite happy with TOB, Snap, Blue, too, to name a few.BTW, all great advice Multi. I poke, but I appreciate!

feeble 6 years, 6 months ago

people don't respond very well to weather warnings : when they're zoned out. good news: they don't feel much when the vent happens either!------------------------------------------------------------------Most important thing to stress (probably) is that trying to outrun a tornado in your vehicle is foolish at best, lethal at worst. Trying to outrun a tornado in your vehicle when there are 1000 other vehicles in the immediate vicinity, and on the next 3 miles of road, is suicide.

mmiller 6 years, 6 months ago

Go to the Storm Prediction Center's Convective Outlooks for Day 1. You'll notice we're still in a moderate risk. This is interesting. I was certain they'd up grade to high risk. The main reason they haven't upgraded is due to the fact that the atmosphere around here will be "capped" for most of the day. Until the Cap erodes, it will remain pretty calm. Once the cap erodes, expect rapid thunderstorm development. "Capping," by the way, is when their is a layer of very warm air in the atmosphere that prevents thunderstorm development.

littleone 6 years, 6 months ago

original bob...you stayed at a holiday inn express last night....you have to be right...hahaha

mmiller 6 years, 6 months ago

Think of the economic impact tomorrow's forecasted event could have on Lawrence!!Here's my proposal:I say Downtown Lawrence, Inc. show Night of the Twisters on the parking garage like they did the KU game. They could charge admission - Adults: $7.50 Children under the age of 5 wearing bike helmets - FREE. They could invite food vendors, the Midland Empire Carnival Company, a Safe Room consultant, etc. The possiblities are endless! I say market the hell out of this event! LMAO - this is too much fun.

mom_of_three 6 years, 6 months ago

The Wichita paper says there is a moderate chance of storms to hit our area. Some forecasters are predicting the weather will hit far north of us. BUT if the storms do form, they say they will be strong storms, and tornados. The Wichita bloggers were also talking about the "rivers myth." You know, how it seems if there are two rivers close together, that tornados seem not to hit that area. anybody know more about it? I have heard it before, because Ark City is between two rivers, and we have had them pass over and blow off a few roofs but nothing major in town.

mom_of_three 6 years, 6 months ago

My big dog has always hated storms, but now he barks at the thunder and lightening. may have to give him something tomorrow night if it lives up to predictions. Although they just say the weather is ripe for a big night, I know it may not happen, but am planning just in case. might also be a good night for pictures....

Linda Aikins 6 years, 6 months ago

Hi y'all! I'm still here. Bummer is that I've been so busy working that I haven't had time to post! Darn job anyway. I have read on occasion, but looks like I'm coming back just in time for the drama tomorrow evening! Ah - the good old days! I will get my popcorn ready, but beware - if the storms are south, Katie may only be on 5 hours instead of 12...The other stations keep us informed, but usually only during commercials. 'Gary Lezak = hook echo. We slam a shot every time he says that. I never see those darn echos and after a while, don't really care! :)http://www.tornadovideos.net/. I didn't do it but you can order a tornado ring tone. I couldn't get to where I could hear it without giving the too much info. Wonder what it would be?

classclown 6 years, 6 months ago

"Gary Lezak = hook echo. We slam a shot every time he says that."=================================That brings back memories of Hi Bob's. Back during the old Bob Newhart show, every time someone on the show said "Hi Bob" everyone had to slam a shot.

road_Runner 6 years, 6 months ago

The dynamics in the atmosphere for tomorrow are absolutely unprecedented for this time of year. It's a set-up you usually would see in April, not June. Very rare, indeed. Still waiting to see how the convection plays out tonight to get a better feel on exactly what mode the storms are going to be in around here. Either way, the weather is going to be wicked so DEFINITELY keep an eye on the weather tomorrow.

TheEleventhStephanie 6 years, 6 months ago

I do not like "smash."Even more, I do not like "LIKELY to smash.":(********I hear that, Kansasperson. I'm from here, seen plenty of weather, and still this is really kind of making me nervous. I've never heard them sound so ominous. And this is the only coverage I've seen of it--just this article makes me nervous. I don't watch Katie Tornadie.

budwhysir 6 years, 6 months ago

Wow I know we are in a housing slump but talk about how to sell houses with basements and storm shelters

bearded_gnome 6 years, 6 months ago

wow, we got Gootsie yaay, TOB, Snappy, damn this is cool and it took a tornado! well, the imminent threat of a massive tornadic outbreak threatening life limb and civilization. well, these are quality folks and when the going gets tough, they get going! I hope all the Wakarusans are aware of what the situation is tomorrow.people don't respond very well to weather warnings ... when they're zoned out. good news: they don't feel much when the vent happens either!
all this about katie...just want to say Jennifer schack is good and never seems to hype the scarey stuff! just wish she'd quit the "futurecast" stupid word. ***charge your batteries, check your toilet paper, and get your spam. or:charge your spam, get your toilet paper, check katie. whatever! batteries not included with this helmet. seriously, one of the most important things in that kinda emergency is a battery powered radio and real functional batteries. if you have toilet paper you can start a fire to cook the spam.

BigPrune 6 years, 6 months ago

It should be a VERY sexy tornado day, if you think tornadoes are sexy.

KansasPerson 6 years, 6 months ago

Here is a paragraph I really don't like from weather.com:"The storm may, in fact, lead to a major severe weather event: a few dangerous long-track tornadoes--as well as thunderstorms packing powerful wind gusts--are likely to smash through portions of Kansas, Nebraska, far southeast South Dakota, northern and western Iowa, northwest Missouri and extreme southern Minnesota."I do not like "smash."Even more, I do not like "LIKELY to smash.":(

BigPrune 6 years, 6 months ago

Beware of always pregnant weather girls who have a marketing degree.

mistygreen 6 years, 6 months ago

So I guess all the severe weather from the past several days was just the warm-up band for tomorrow?

Boston_Corbett 6 years, 6 months ago

This is an early alert for KSA21-3505 (or whatever) to get his scardie butt into the basement.

smokey 6 years, 6 months ago

Wow I need to grease up the lawn chair, and grab some beer for the show!!!

trinity 6 years, 6 months ago

tob, i'm a sinner...i continue to watch katie tornadie for a chuckle or two. i promise to try and mend my ways. and i'm jealous-my helmet isn't a horner approved model. but by golly my parka is! :)

gr 6 years, 6 months ago

I'm sure glad it's been way back to 1974 that conditions were such as is expected. I'm glad they aren't happening with more frequency.

mmiller 6 years, 6 months ago

Just remember, those watching Katie Horner, to wear your bike helmets! LOL. That's her recommendation during a Tornado warning. Not a bad idea, actually. I will be watching KSHB's "Action Weather Plus" with Gary Leezak. He's Kansas City's "weather leader." LOL. Love those fancy smancy tv promo/marketing words and phrases!! Powercasting, Nowcasting, Microcast, ESP Live Radar. It's Cuh-ray-zee-ness!!!!

truthhurts 6 years, 6 months ago

Does this mean Katie Horner is already started 24/7 coverage?

mmiller 6 years, 6 months ago

I also predict a tornado will hit the existing Wal-Mart...Oh no...What will we do then? WAIT!!!! I hear they're building another!!! We're safe. Horray!!!

acg 6 years, 6 months ago

Yes, that was the day, Kristen and you're right, there was a tornado. But my point is, instead of letting people know what was happening in a clear concise manner, and being professional about it, her eyes bugged out and she got all panicky and warned us all to run for our lives and it was too funny. I've been living in KS since 1988 and I've seen a lot of tornadoes, ice/snow storms and thunderstorms come and go and no one can sensationalize them quite like Katie.

cds 6 years, 6 months ago

Lol, I had a feeling Katie Hornblower would be mentioned in this blog, glad I wasn't disapointed. :)

Linda Aikins 6 years, 6 months ago

"Tie a suitcase to a stud next to where you will be" - MD.NOW we're talking. My hubby is a big stud, but in his absence, could Darnell Jackson please come over so I can strap my carry-on to him! :)

packs_of_wild_dogzz 6 years, 6 months ago

Clowns.So many of you make fun but what would you do if the Katie Horners of the world were not telling you to run for the hills? My guess is you'd lash out the way most of you did last month when the tornado sirens weren't sounded...and there were no confirmed tornadoes. As far as a big bad tornado outbreak tomorrow, I'll believe it when I see it.Peace.

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