Wichita — The National Weather Service is giving advance warning of a possible tornado outbreak in the Great Plains on Thursday with conditions similar to a deadly day in 1974 when 39 tornadoes touched down.
Computer forecasting models for Thursday resemble those on June 8, 1974, when more than three dozen tornadoes touched down in the southern Plains and killed 22 people, including six in Emporia.
"I think this event warrants more advance warning," said Robb Lawson, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Wichita.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center has been warning for days of the outbreak.
Some forecasters are predicting the tornadoes could hit a corridor stretching from northern Oklahoma to central Iowa, said Mike Smith, chief executive officer of WeatherData Inc., a subsidiary of AccuWeather.
"Certainly Wichita, Topeka, Emporia, Salina, Chanute ... essentially the eastern half of Kansas should really be paying attention on Thursday," Smith said.
Smith said temperature and humidity patterns for Thursday are similar to the 1974 outbreak, with a wave of energy in the upper atmosphere projected to be in exactly the same position.
With so much humidity in place, storms on Thursday could form and quickly become strong, forecasters said.
"If you take April dynamics and June thermodynamics, you have a potentially disastrous combination," Smith said.
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truthhurts (anonymous) says…
Does this mean Katie Horner is already started 24/7 coverage?
mom_of_three (anonymous) says…
I was just a kid back in 1974, living in Wichita, and I remember hiding from tornadoes, but I don't remember an outbreak. i guess we should be ready for some interesting weather.
Take_a_letter_Maria (anonymous) says…
Have they sounded the sirens yet?
monkfellow (anonymous) says…
..we'll see if their tornado outbreak is as accurate as AlGore and his"all the duck billed platypusses will be dead if we don't fight global warming" forecasts !
mommaeffortx2 (anonymous) says…
I will bet on and hot sticky day darn the humidity.
The_Original_Bob (anonymous) says…
This isn't like a snowstorm where forecasters are constantly off on locations and amounts. It is fairly easy to nail down that biosolids will hit the fan a day in advance of a set-up like the one tomorrow. While it might be a tad irresponsible to compare a storm that hasn't happened yet to the June, 1974 outbreak, I think his main point was that, yes, this looks bad. Be prepared. I'm polishing my bike helmet (Katie Horner approved model) after work.
The_Original_Bob (anonymous) says…
MD's post is one example of Katie's past. My favorite is when she invented a tornado over Overland Park. No NWS, no other stations, no radar, but Katie went on saying a tornado was in Overland Park. She won the ratings battle that night. I used to watch her to laugh, but I figure I was only contributing to the problem.
acg (anonymous) says…
I was watching Katie once back in 03 and there was a tornado heading for Lawrence, where I was living at the time, and she honestly said "Lawrence, I hate to say it, but it's heading right for you. You need to run, now!" So my hubby and I call her KatierunforyourlifeHorner. She's such an alarmist and although the weather is serious, at times, she's always acting like the world is about to end because of some snow or rain. It's quite amusing, actually, to watch her for entertainment purposes. I get all my weather from Katie, because I know I'll get a good healthy dose of paranoia with it.
Boston_Corbett (anonymous) says…
This is an early alert for KSA21-3505 (or whatever) to get his scardie butt into the basement.
trinity (anonymous) says…
tob, i'm a sinner...i continue to watch katie tornadie for a chuckle or two. i promise to try and mend my ways. and i'm jealous-my helmet isn't a horner approved model. but by golly my parka is! :)
pdecell (Paul Decelles) says…
acg...I agree. In Kansas paranoia about the weather is a good thing. Also I think some people don't like Katie because she's on channel 5 where she is probably told to be a little sensational at times....can you say "Chopper 5?" ten times really fast?
Agnostick (anonymous) says…
Thanks for the fun stories, Multi!I'll throw one on the pile...About two years ago, on a Sunday afternoon, heavy rains and thunderstorms rolled into the KC area. My wife and I were at home on the couch, watching TV for a while, and we'd noticed that the KCTV weekend meteorologist was popping in rather frequently to update viewers on the situation. As most of the weekend staff, he was a bit younger, a bit less experienced than the "prime time" folks, but was certainly doing an admirable job keeping up with things. Since he was at work, he was dressed in a nice suit & tie, very professional-looking."Weekend Guy" turns back to regular programming... and then about 5 minutes later, here's Katie!Katie Horner, dressed in:* jeans*white v-neck t-shirt* black baseball capKatie stayed on the air 80-90 minutes, non-stop. As I recall, there was never a tornado warning or watch--only a severe thunderstorm warning or two.We laughed about this, naturally."Oh, look at me! I took time out of my relaxing, casual weekend plans just to run in here, knock the other guy out of the way ("Sorry, Scooter, this puppy's all mine!") and ride out this extremely-dangerous severe weather event with all you fine folks!"Boy, I rushed in here so fast, I didn't even have time to change into something more presentable! Is that 'dedication' or what?"Two words:Show.Pony.Let's be clear: Certainly, I do not question Horner's meteorological expertise--not at all. But the weather's dramatic enough, without Horner's contrived theatrics.So, yeah, it's fun to watch.--Ag
Agnostick (anonymous) says…
roflmao!!!Has anybody seen this?http://www.firekatie.com/Okay, which one of you jokesters put that up there??
The_Original_Bob (anonymous) says…
Her paranoia used to slide right on into whacked out alarmism. She may have changed her ways. --pdecell - I have a couple friends that work in the KC media (non-name, off air talent) and that is definately part of the problem. Her bosses encouraged her to do it. I know they had a few changes up top last year, so she may have changed. --Shoot. I might just have to watch her tomorrow night.
kristenkim (anonymous) says…
acg--Was that the tornado that hit around May 8, 2003? Cause there actually was a tornado in Lawrence that day. I had just been in the tornado that hit North Kansas City on May 4, so I was paying particularly close attention to those warnings.
Agnostick (anonymous) says…
Here's a small screen capture on this page:http://www.firekatie.com/why.htmlSo, maybe somebody else can fill me in here: Did I get the t-shirt color wrong, or is the jeans/t-shirt/cap ensemble her usual weekend alarmist uniform?
acg (anonymous) says…
Yes, that was the day, Kristen and you're right, there was a tornado. But my point is, instead of letting people know what was happening in a clear concise manner, and being professional about it, her eyes bugged out and she got all panicky and warned us all to run for our lives and it was too funny. I've been living in KS since 1988 and I've seen a lot of tornadoes, ice/snow storms and thunderstorms come and go and no one can sensationalize them quite like Katie.
OldEnuf2BYurDad (anonymous) says…
Now the jinx has been jinxed.
mom_of_three (anonymous) says…
My big dog has always hated storms, but now he barks at the thunder and lightening. may have to give him something tomorrow night if it lives up to predictions. Although they just say the weather is ripe for a big night, I know it may not happen, but am planning just in case. might also be a good night for pictures....
packs_of_wild_dogzz (anonymous) says…
Clowns.So many of you make fun but what would you do if the Katie Horners of the world were not telling you to run for the hills? My guess is you'd lash out the way most of you did last month when the tornado sirens weren't sounded...and there were no confirmed tornadoes. As far as a big bad tornado outbreak tomorrow, I'll believe it when I see it.Peace.
Gootsie (anonymous) says…
Hi y'all! I'm still here. Bummer is that I've been so busy working that I haven't had time to post! Darn job anyway. I have read on occasion, but looks like I'm coming back just in time for the drama tomorrow evening! Ah - the good old days! I will get my popcorn ready, but beware - if the storms are south, Katie may only be on 5 hours instead of 12...The other stations keep us informed, but usually only during commercials. 'Gary Lezak = hook echo. We slam a shot every time he says that. I never see those darn echos and after a while, don't really care! :)http://www.tornadovideos.net/. I didn't do it but you can order a tornado ring tone. I couldn't get to where I could hear it without giving the too much info. Wonder what it would be?
oscarfactor (anonymous) says…
"Is that a baby in Brush Creek?" - K. Horner.
Gootsie (anonymous) says…
http://cjonline.com/stories/060408/br... pack - maybe you'd rather read the comments in the Topeka Capital-Journal...then let us know whose are more fun.
mmiller (anonymous) says…
Just remember, those watching Katie Horner, to wear your bike helmets! LOL. That's her recommendation during a Tornado warning. Not a bad idea, actually. I will be watching KSHB's "Action Weather Plus" with Gary Leezak. He's Kansas City's "weather leader." LOL. Love those fancy smancy tv promo/marketing words and phrases!! Powercasting, Nowcasting, Microcast, ESP Live Radar. It's Cuh-ray-zee-ness!!!!
gr (anonymous) says…
I'm sure glad it's been way back to 1974 that conditions were such as is expected. I'm glad they aren't happening with more frequency.
mmiller (anonymous) says…
Think of the economic impact tomorrow's forecasted event could have on Lawrence!!Here's my proposal:I say Downtown Lawrence, Inc. show Night of the Twisters on the parking garage like they did the KU game. They could charge admission - Adults: $7.50 Children under the age of 5 wearing bike helmets - FREE. They could invite food vendors, the Midland Empire Carnival Company, a Safe Room consultant, etc. The possiblities are endless! I say market the hell out of this event! LMAO - this is too much fun.
snap_pop_no_crackle (anonymous) says…
I'm decked out in my flak vest and pleather chaps. Bring it on!
76trombones (anonymous) says…
Is it too late to call FEMA ???
mmiller (anonymous) says…
I also predict a tornado will hit the existing Wal-Mart...Oh no...What will we do then? WAIT!!!! I hear they're building another!!! We're safe. Horray!!!
mom_of_three (anonymous) says…
The Wichita paper says there is a moderate chance of storms to hit our area. Some forecasters are predicting the weather will hit far north of us. BUT if the storms do form, they say they will be strong storms, and tornados. The Wichita bloggers were also talking about the "rivers myth." You know, how it seems if there are two rivers close together, that tornados seem not to hit that area. anybody know more about it? I have heard it before, because Ark City is between two rivers, and we have had them pass over and blow off a few roofs but nothing major in town.
KansasPerson (anonymous) says…
I don't know the thing about the rivers -- but I do know the Eudora story!Not to mention the "Tonganoxie split" which was made up by -- was it Dan Henry? -- but which everyone quotes now as Science!
yeah_right (anonymous) says…
I'm scared
feeble (anonymous) says…
@mom_of_three: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_...
budwhysir (anonymous) says…
Wow I know we are in a housing slump but talk about how to sell houses with basements and storm shelters
The_Original_Bob (anonymous) says…
""Is that a baby in Brush Creek?" - K. Horner." OscarHoly F'n Hootenanny. I completely forgot about that one. That is the gold standard.-To whatever poster claiming we'd be sorry if there weren't Katie Tornado's in the world... have you ever heard the story of the boy that cried wolf too many times?-I believe you are correct with Dan Henry and the Tongi Split. He said it as a joke and still people honest to God believe that there is some supernatural power that splits storms at Tongi to miss KC.
cds (anonymous) says…
Lol, I had a feeling Katie Hornblower would be mentioned in this blog, glad I wasn't disapointed. :)
Scattered (anonymous) says…
Well, I certainly remember that day in 1974!Our baby son was not quite two months old, and we did not have a basement. My mother called us to warn of a tornado, and we raced across town to my sister's house. She had a basement, alright, but it was the kind you entered from a shelter door outdoors. In the torrential rain, a huge mud puddle had formed, and I slipped and nearly dropped Spencer with the tornado headed right towards her neighborhood.As we waited out the storm, water began pouring into her basement from who knows where ( love those rental properties!) She touched a metal bed, and received a tremendous shock.Terrible afternoon, but nothing compared to the day after I brought baby #3 home. I am tremendously thankful that we have such advanced warning! Stay safe everyone.Here's a weather channel tip: put on any type of helmet for added protection. When my grandson was younger, I suggested that they put him in his extra carseat.
KansasPerson (anonymous) says…
Here is a paragraph I really don't like from weather.com:"The storm may, in fact, lead to a major severe weather event: a few dangerous long-track tornadoes--as well as thunderstorms packing powerful wind gusts--are likely to smash through portions of Kansas, Nebraska, far southeast South Dakota, northern and western Iowa, northwest Missouri and extreme southern Minnesota."I do not like "smash."Even more, I do not like "LIKELY to smash.":(
BigPrune (anonymous) says…
Beware of always pregnant weather girls who have a marketing degree.
mistygreen (anonymous) says…
So I guess all the severe weather from the past several days was just the warm-up band for tomorrow?
smokey (anonymous) says…
Wow I need to grease up the lawn chair, and grab some beer for the show!!!
TheEleventhStephanie (anonymous) says…
I do not like "smash."Even more, I do not like "LIKELY to smash.":(********************************I hear that, Kansasperson. I'm from here, seen plenty of weather, and still this is really kind of making me nervous. I've never heard them sound so ominous. And this is the only coverage I've seen of it--just this article makes me nervous. I don't watch Katie Tornadie.
Gootsie (anonymous) says…
"Tie a suitcase to a stud next to where you will be" - MD.NOW we're talking. My hubby is a big stud, but in his absence, could Darnell Jackson please come over so I can strap my carry-on to him! :)
Gootsie (anonymous) says…
In his absence, I would be quite happy with TOB, Snap, Blue, too, to name a few.BTW, all great advice Multi. I poke, but I appreciate!
The_Original_Bob (anonymous) says…
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/Hit the link on the left that says "all SPC forecasts" and you will get the 1,2,3 and 4 - 8 day guestimates.That is my favorite severe weather prediction site. They have had Thursday pegged since last week on their 4-8 day estimations. The storm chasers have been on this for a week. Too many models, meteorologists, and weather sites agree... tomorrow could be bad. I'm really hoping it won't happen, and if it does, it is likely to be worse West of us (at this point with the info available tonight). There are many, many factors in play and just one (the low tracks to a different area) and everything shifts and were the boundaries set up and the front and this and that. While Lawrence may be in the clear for superbad severe weather tomorrow, someone is getting hit in Kansas or Nebraska or S. Dakota. www.weather.gov is another site. Hit that link and look what NE Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois are going through right now.It is early and I don't get paid, my guess is we might get hit with a high wind, rain, possilby hail squall line after the supercells are done West of us. Probably after dark, perhaps dinnertime. I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night and so you can take this to the bank.I hope all the Wakarusans are aware of what the situation is tomorrow.
littleone (anonymous) says…
original bob...you stayed at a holiday inn express last night....you have to be right...hahaha
road_Runner (anonymous) says…
The dynamics in the atmosphere for tomorrow are absolutely unprecedented for this time of year. It's a set-up you usually would see in April, not June. Very rare, indeed. Still waiting to see how the convection plays out tonight to get a better feel on exactly what mode the storms are going to be in around here. Either way, the weather is going to be wicked so definitely keep an eye on the weather tomorrow.
RETICENT_IRREVERENT (Ronaldo Ignacio) says…
"Who talked about wanting her to wear smoke jumper boots 'cause they look hot." - Multidisciplinaryhttp://www.drewsboots.com/firelogg.htm#400VLTThttp://www2.ljworld.com/onthestreet/2006/apr/13/portrait/#c125221
classclown (Class Clown) says…
"Gary Lezak = hook echo. We slam a shot every time he says that."=================================That brings back memories of Hi Bob's. Back during the old Bob Newhart show, every time someone on the show said "Hi Bob" everyone had to slam a shot.
bearded_gnome (anonymous) says…
wow, we got Gootsie yaay, TOB, Snappy, damn this is cool and it took a tornado! well, the imminent threat of a massive tornadic outbreak threatening life limb and civilization. well, these are quality folks and when the going gets tough, they get going! ***I hope all the Wakarusans are aware of what the situation is tomorrow.people don't respond very well to weather warnings ... when they're zoned out. good news: they don't feel much when the vent happens either! ***all this about katie...just want to say Jennifer schack is good and never seems to hype the scarey stuff! just wish she'd quit the "futurecast" stupid word. ***charge your batteries, check your toilet paper, and get your spam. or:charge your spam, get your toilet paper, check katie. whatever! batteries not included with this helmet. seriously, one of the most important things in that kinda emergency is a battery powered radio and real functional batteries. if you have toilet paper you can start a fire to cook the spam.
feeble (anonymous) says…
people don't respond very well to weather warnings : when they're zoned out. good news: they don't feel much when the vent happens either!------------------------------------------------------------------Most important thing to stress (probably) is that trying to outrun a tornado in your vehicle is foolish at best, lethal at worst. Trying to outrun a tornado in your vehicle when there are 1000 other vehicles in the immediate vicinity, and on the next 3 miles of road, is suicide.
The_Original_Bob (anonymous) says…
"wow, we got Gootsie yaay, TOB, Snappy, damn this is cool and it took a tornado!" GnomeIt's like 2006 all over again!--Feeble is spot on. I'm heading to bed, but do a search on Pratt County + Tornado + Car thrown 150 Yards from Hiway 54 and you'll see what a tornado will do to a car. Rest in peace folks from Colorado.
The_Original_Bob (anonymous) says…
Ahh, I forgot about the interwebs technology...http://www.kake.com/news/headlines/19236334.htmlSad, sad and sad. They probably didn't know what hit them.
Pywacket (anonymous) says…
If I tie anything to a stud, I guarantee you it won't be a suitcase! I like the greased lawnchair plan... What time is this fine entertainment scheduled to commence? Just as long as I'm home from work and can enjoy it with a margarita in hand and stud close by, I'm good.Last night (Tuesday), we were obliged to drive home (Eudora to Baldwin) right in the midst of blinding rain and incessant lightning after they finally called a kiddie ball game that they should've called an hour prior to its start time.We very reluctantly left for Eudora at 7:00 for the 7:45 game, torn between common sense (the storm was obviously headed that way and, in fact, it was raining like a cow whizzing on a flat rock in Baldwin when we left) and a sense of duty (the coach & other players were there/on their way). I mean... it was remotely possible that the clouds would part, golden rays would flood the Eudora field with sunshine, and the game would play out... right? Right? Okay. We were schmucks to make the drive!
BigPrune (anonymous) says…
It should be a VERY sexy tornado day, if you think tornadoes are sexy.
mmiller (anonymous) says…
Go to the Storm Prediction Center's Convective Outlooks for Day 1. You'll notice we're still in a moderate risk. This is interesting. I was certain they'd up grade to high risk. The main reason they haven't upgraded is due to the fact that the atmosphere around here will be "capped" for most of the day. Until the Cap erodes, it will remain pretty calm. Once the cap erodes, expect rapid thunderstorm development. "Capping," by the way, is when their is a layer of very warm air in the atmosphere that prevents thunderstorm development.
mmiller (anonymous) says…
So they just upgraded to high risk! look out!