Gov. Kathleen Sebelius and her staff undoubtedly have calculated the odds, but the governor’s inclusion of $81.8 million in gaming revenue in her Fiscal Year 2008 budget still represents a considerable risk.

In a recent visit to the Journal-World, Stephen Martino, executive director of the Kansas Racing and Gaming Commission, estimated that the first slot machines probably would be in operation at The Woodlands in Wyandotte County by June or July but state-owned casinos probably wouldn’t be up and running until 2010. The deadline for applications to build and operate the casinos passed only last month, and it will take some time to screen applicants and negotiate agreements.

That all assumes, as well, that the law allowing Kansas to become the first state to own and operate casinos passes muster with the Kansas Supreme Court, which is considering its constitutionality.

That’s why it seems a little optimistic to count on $81.8 million in gambling revenue to balance the state budget. The governor’s budget figures estimate about $4.9 million in revenue from slot machines by June 30 – which seems doubtful, according to Martino’s timeline – and another $42 million in slot profits from July 1, 2008, to June 30, 2009. Per-machine fees paid by developers account for about $4.4 million with another $30.5 million coming from developers starting to work on casino projects.

It’s true that state officials are planning to put casino development on the fast track and that 13 developers have filed applications for one of four approved casino sites in the state, but it takes time to negotiate contracts and screen applicants.

The governor plans to use $57 million of this revenue to make bond payments on a number of capital improvement projects around the state, including $15 million for university repairs, $16 million for transportation projects and $10 million for statehouse renovations. Another $24.2 million of the money is earmarked for other capital projects.

The new projects might be trimmed if the gaming revenue falls short of predictions, but some legislators are understandably uneasy about counting on that money to keep up with scheduled bond payments.

Given the high hopes and the many potential uses officials have had for gambling revenue, it’s not surprising that those funds play a significant role in the FY 2008 budget. Like all the revenue figures in the budget, the gambling income is an estimate that could either fall short or be exceeded. The governor’s estimates may be conservative, but considering that state-owned casino gambling is a new venture for Kansas and no other state has tried a similar system, it’s hard to know.

If lawmakers depend on that money for essential items like bond payments, a shortfall will have to be made up from some other source. It’s a gamble, and the state would be smart not to count too much on its winning before the game even starts.