Archive for Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Poll shows Obama leading McCain

February 12, 2008


— If Democrats want their best shot at defeating John McCain this fall, a new poll suggests Barack Obama may be a better bet than Hillary Rodham Clinton.

In an early look at how people view the presidential race after the Super Tuesday contests, Obama had a narrow 48 percent to 42 percent edge when pitted against McCain, the Republican Arizona senator, according to an Associated Press-Ipsos poll released Monday. Clinton was essentially tied with McCain, getting 46 percent to his 45 percent.

Even as Clinton and Obama continue their battle over their party's nomination - a fight that may take weeks or months to resolve - the poll showed Obama doing better than his rival against McCain among some pivotal voters. These include men, minorities and moderates.

At the same time, Clinton did no better than Obama when pitted against McCain among two groups that have supported her in Democratic primaries so far: women and whites.

"We bring in voters who haven't given Democrats a chance" in the past, said Obama pollster Cornell Belcher, citing the Illinois senator's support from independents and other groups.

Mark Penn, Clinton's chief strategist, spoke of her backing from women and Hispanics and said, "Hillary Clinton has a coalition of voters well-suited to winning the general election."

McCain is the heavy favorite to win the GOP nomination following his strong showing in last Tuesday's coast-to-coast voting and Mitt Romney's decision to suspend his campaign. The AP-Ipsos poll shows, however, that the general election - still nine months off - looms as a difficult fight for him.

One reason McCain holds his own against Clinton is his support from men, who prefer him to the New York senator by 9 percentage points. That compensates for her 11-point advantage among women.

Obama does better than Clinton with men when paired against McCain, splitting the male vote with the Arizona senator. Obama does especially well with men under 45: He defeats McCain by 9 points among younger men, while McCain defeats Clinton with those voters by 7 points.

Meanwhile, Obama's advantage over McCain among women is about the same as Clinton's, blunting her edge in a group that has been the core of her strength in her fight for the Democratic nomination.


JohnBrown 10 years, 3 months ago

Hillary talks about "I bring 35 years of experience"...doing what? Mostly being a high-end attorney in Little Rock.

McCain could be acceptable, depending on his running mate. Hillary is not acceptable. We KNOW Bill will be there wanting something to do.

O'Bama brings in a new kind of politics and hopes for moderation. More to the point, Bill's nowhere to be seen.

Frank Smith 10 years, 3 months ago

Mark Penn is paid to make statements unequivocally supporting his candidate: Hillary Clinton. He also claimed that Obama had never withstood a serious Republican challenge.

It's hard to believe that professional reporters accepted Penn's foolish statement. Indeed, what serious Republican challenge has Hillary ever withstood? Despite an enormous advantage in funding, she won by only 12% in 2000 against a substitute nonentity for Giuliani, Rick Lazio, in one of the bluest of the blue states. In 2006, running against still another substitute nonentity, John Spencer, barely known outside his home town of Yonkers, she spent $36 million to win that lopsided race. That was more than was spent on any Federal race that year.

The presidential nomination is the first tough race either candidate has ever experienced. If Barak's so easy, why is Hillary panicking?

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