Turnovers

No team took better care of the football than the Patriots, who committed just 15 turnovers. Tom Brady threw nine interceptions, and the Patriots lost six fumbles. But Brady committed five of the turnovers in December in the cold weather. The ball will be easier to grip and hold indoors at the Super Bowl.

Who’s going to fumble?

Best Giant bet: QB Eli Manning

The Giants did a superb job protecting Manning, allowing only 27 sacks. But when he does get hit it’s almost like he never expects it. Manning fumbled 13 times and lost seven.

Best Patriot bet: KR Ellis Hobbs

He finished seventh in the NFL in kickoff returns with a 26-yard average. But he’s on the small (5-9) side and a blindside shot can separate him from the football. Hobbs has fumbled twice.

Who’s going to force fumbles?

Best Giant bet: DE Osi Umenyiora

He arrives on Brady’s blind side in the pass rush and has developed a chop move on impact. He forced five fumbles. No one else on the Giants forced more than one.

Best Patriot bet: OLB Mike Vrabel

Twelve New England defenders came up with turnovers in 2007. Vrabel wasn’t one of them, but he was responsible for more than his share, leading the team with four forced fumbles. Like Umenyiora, the fumbles come on his pass rush.

Who’s going to make an interception?

Best Giant bet: CB Aaron Ross

He starts at left cornerback but slides into the slot on passing downs. That will match him against Wes Welker, a favorite target of Tom Brady in short yardage. Welker has caught 10 or more passes in three games, so Ross will have his chances.

Best Patriot bet: CB Asante Samuel

The Patriots slapped the franchise tag on Samuel to keep him under contract in 2007. He plays up to that franchise label. He intercepted 10 passes in 2006 and six more in 2007. He has great catchup speed and the hands of a wide receiver.

Which team capitalizes on turnovers?

Both

Give the ball away at your own risk in this one. The Patriots scored six defensive touchdowns and the Giants five. Six Patriots scored on defense and four Giants. Linebacker Kawika Mitchell was the only double-dipper, returning a fumble and an interception for scores for the Giants. New York forced only 25 turnovers but converted them into 17 scores and 102 points.

Inside the 20

Expect New York to …

¢ Put a Brand on the Patriots. The Giants always have been and always will be a running team, regardless whether its Phil Simms, Kerry Collins or Eli Manning at quarterback. When New York gets close, the ball will be handed off to 264-pound tailback Brandon Jacobs.

¢ Who’s the Boss? The play-action pass to Pro Bowl tight end Jeremy Shockey was a favorite in the Tom Coughlin playbook. But with Shockey gone with a broken leg, Kevin Boss will be on the receiving end. He’s a huge (6-6) target.

Expect New England to …

¢ Keep throwing. The best passing team in the NFL will throw on any down, anywhere on the field. Moss scored 10 of his 23 touchdowns on passes of 10 yards or less. Brady will also swing the ball to Kevin Faulk, flip it to Wes Welker on quick outs or dump it to Mike Vrabel off play-action.

¢ Gopher power. Halfback Laurence Maroney scored eight touchdowns, including the playoffs, and seven were of 6 yards or less. Once the Patriots cross the 10, look for Maroney. His legs also set up the play-action to Vrabel.

Short Yardage

Giants expectations

Run. Send 266-pound blocking fullback Madison Hedgecock through the line ahead of 264-pound Brandon Jacobs, and New York’s size takes a physical toll on defensive fronts.

Patriots expectations

Pass. Brady is one of the best play-action passers in the game. He’ll fake a handoff to Maroney, put the ball on his hip and then lob it to his tight end. Defenses can’t stack the line for the run because every down is a passing down for the Patriots.