The lipstick and beer index: Can you gauge the economy by what’s in your fridge and other ‘affordable luxuries’?

During these turbulent economic times, all eyes are glued to the major market indexes: the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq Composite. But there are other indicators out there. Take beer and lipstick. They’re part of an Everyman’s economic index.

Here’s what they can — and can’t — tell you about the economy.

Lipstick

Leonard Lauder, chairman of Estee Lauder, reportedly coined the phrase “lipstick index” after observing surges in sales during downturns. Why? People reach for affordable luxuries to make them feel better.

Is it true? Yes, says Nancy Koehn, Harvard Business School professor: “The decade of the Great Depression, cosmetic sales increased 25 percent.” There was a similar uptick in lipstick sales after Sept. 11, 2001. So far this year, lipstick sales are down nearly 4 percent. But Koehn says lipstick sales likely spiked in mid-September, when the financial crises took hold.

Prediction: New shades on ladies’ lips.

Box office

When the going gets tough, everybody goes to the movies. The cineplex provides an escape from an unnerving reality.

Is it true? Yes, says Patrick Corcoran of the National Association of Theatre Owners. Movie attendance increased during five of the last seven economic recessions. “You can only spend so much time in your house,” he says. “You might not go out as often but, when you do, you look for something affordable.”

Prediction: Packed showings of “Rachel Getting Married.”

Booze

When the economy fails, we reach for the bottle — or bottles.

Is it true? No, says Marcia Mogelonsky, senior analyst at Mintel International, a market research firm. “We drink all the time!” she declared. In good times and bad, we’re a nation that likes to toss one back. What changes is where we drink. We drink at home more and go out less, she said. Recent data support that trend.

Prediction: Neighborhood recycling bins overflowing with beer and wine bottles.

Hemlines

When times are good, women’s skirts get shorter; when times are bad, hemlines fall.

The idea behind this theoretical trend is that people are carefree during booms and cautious during busts.

Is it true? No, says Bobbi Queen, senior fashion editor at Women’s Wear Daily. She says she has never seen convincing evidence of this. Still, Queen says shoppers might reach for less-restrictive, free-flowing clothing during tough times.

It’s a way to comfort ourselves during stressful periods. “I’m thinking of jumpsuits, harem pants and caftans,” she said.

Prediction: Elastic waistbands on fashion runways.