Raw materials drop off from high July prices

Financial markets are frazzled, and the jobs situation is getting worse. But there is a surprising bit of good news for the economy in the months ahead.

Prices for global commodities – oil, of course, but also a variety of metals, agricultural products, and other raw materials – have been falling steadily since mid-July, after reaching record highs.

Prices are still elevated, pinching consumers and businesses alike.

But these modest declines should offer some relief to stretched American pocketbooks in the months ahead and help reverse some of the steep rise in inflation that occurred in the spring and early summer.

“When the price of oil has fallen by more than 20 percent, and other commodities from steel and aluminum to corn and wheat have all fallen in price significantly, it represents a cushion for the economy,” said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at California State University. “It is one of the few supports that we have in the economy right now.”

But the commodity drops aren’t all good news.

Part of the reason for the downward swing is that major world economies such as in Europe and Japan are slowing.

So far in 2008, exports have been one of the few bright spots for the U.S. economy, resulting in ports humming with outbound loads.

At the Port of Long Beach, for example, exporters are having to book shipping capacity far in advance, as there is far more demand for containers heading toward Asia than in the past.

But if other countries slow down too much, so will their demand for U.S. goods, potentially nipping that source of growth.