Jackson, Wyo. ? Is the long wait coming to an end for borrowers who would like to see interest rates go down?

The Federal Reserve hasn’t sliced a key interest rate – now at 5.25 percent – in four years.

Where the Fed is headed, at its next meeting on Sept. 18 and later, generated much buzz on the sidelines of an economic conference here. The gathering focused on housing, which has been in a deep slump.

Outside the meeting, talk turned to how Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke thus far is handling a global credit crunch that has rocked Wall Street and has raised new dangers to the country’s economic health. Some economists predict the Fed will be forced to lower its key rate this year. Others say it isn’t a sure thing.

The fear is that if credit continues to become harder for people and businesses to get, spending and investment will be crimped. That could hurt overall economic growth.

In a worst-case scenario, the country could slide into a recession. Credit is the economy’s lifeblood. It lets people make big-ticket purchases such as homes and cars and can help businesses bankroll expansions and other things that can boost hiring.

Some economists put the odds of a recession this year at one in three.

Lyle Gramley, a former Fed official and now senior economic adviser at the Stanford Washington Research Group, said the “chances are very high” that the Fed will cut its key rate, called the federal funds rate, on Sept. 18 by one-quarter percentage point to 5 percent. He predicted that would be followed up by cuts of a quarter-point each at the Fed’s October and December meetings.

“This is the most chaotic mortgage market that I’ve ever seen in 50 years,” he said.

Laurence Meyer, a former Federal Reserve Board member who is vice chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, also is in the camp of a September rate cut.

A cut would mean lower interest rates for millions of people and businesses. That’s why it is the Fed’s main tool for influencing economic activity. Commercial banks’ prime lending rate for certain credit cards, home equity lines of credit and other loans currently at 8.25 percent would drop by a corresponding amount to a cut in the funds rate.

However, Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at LaSalle Bank, thinks there’s a good chance the Fed will leave its key rate unchanged in September.

“If markets normalize and credit begins moving again, we’ll look at this as basically a bad dream,” he said.

In an anxiously awaited speech on Friday, Bernanke told the conference the Fed will “act as needed” to protect the national economy from the ill effects of the credit crunch.

At the same time, he made clear the central bank’s next move on rates will be driven by economic considerations.

“It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve – nor would it be appropriate – to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions,” Bernanke said. “But developments in financial markets can have broad economic effects felt by many outside the markets, and the Federal Reserve must take those effects into account when determining policy.”

Before the financial crisis erupted, the economy had a full head of steam, growing at a robust pace of 4 percent in the April-to-June quarter. But growth is expected to slow to half that pace in the current quarter and lose more speed in the final quarter of this year.

The unemployment rate, now at 4.6 percent, is expected to creep up to around 5 percent by year’s end.

To stabilize wobbly markets, the Fed on Aug. 17 sliced its lending rate to banks by a half percentage point to 5.75 percent. It also has pumped billions of dollars into the financial system to help banks and other institutions get through the credit hump and carry out their business.

Before those moves, investors accused Bernanke of failing to pay close enough attention to the financial crisis. In Friday’s speech, “he put to rest concerns that he doesn’t understand credit markets,” said John Makin, principal of Caxton Associates and among those expecting one or more cuts in the federal funds rate this year.