Misleading figures

A recent report classifying schools as "dropout factories" was high on drama and low on analysis.

Here’s a good example of what is wrong with some journalism. Recently, the Associated Press put out a story with this lead: “It’s a nickname no principal could be proud of: ‘dropout factory,’ a high school where no more than 60 percent of the students who start as freshmen make it to their senior year. That dubious distinction belongs to more than one in 10 high schools across America, according to researchers at Johns Hopkins University, who analyzed Education Department data for The Associated Press.”

Heckuva story. But there’s a problem.

Researchers gauged the dropout rate by comparing freshmen enrollment in each school with senior enrollment at the same schools. But they didn’t take into account students who transferred or moved or finished school early or who had to re-do a year.

The researchers assumed that if there is a big gap between freshmen and senior enrollment, there is a significant dropout rate. That may be a correct assumption, but without factoring in common events, such as students moving, it’s hard to tell. Some urban schools have high rates of flight to suburban districts, but these kids aren’t dropping out of school.

The study’s numbers were squishy. A Topeka school district administrator actually tracked all 487 freshmen from the 2002-03 school year at Topeka High School, which was one of the schools designated as a “dropout factory.” The district’s conclusion was that 39 students were considered true dropouts, which is 8 percent of the total and far lower than the 40 percent that Johns Hopkins used to put the school on the bad list.

And then there is the term “dropout factory.” Again, let’s blame schools for society’s problems. By this reasoning, shouldn’t we call hospitals, “death factories” and churches, “sin factories.”

But after the AP report came out and identified 1,700 schools nationwide, reporters from papers and television stations across the country hit the streets demanding to know why their local school was a “dropout factory.”

School administrators reacted the way anyone would react to an ambush. They tried to fight it, denying the accuracy of the report and pointing to all the good things going on in their schools.

So the papers and broadcast reports were full of stories that had official-sounding people talking about “dropout factories” and school administrators forced into bunker mode. Millions of people probably went away from these stories with confirmation of their worst opinions about public schools – something is wrong.

Something is wrong here. The AP should have studied the research more before making a decision on what to do with the information. This may have led to a more reasonable conversation about the issues surrounding dropouts.

But instead the news media have tarnished the reputation of hundreds of schools, thousands of teachers and tens of thousands of students because of broad-brush reporting and a new inflammatory term “dropout factory.” Many of those teachers and students in the so-called dropout factories are fighting against the odds to do what is right. They should be thanked and congratulated for their dedication rather than criticized.