Let’s be honest.

I could shoot darts out of a blow gun at media pages pasted on the wall and have the same chance of correctly predicting who will win the upcoming events at Lowe’s Motor Speedway as I do when I try to actually make a forecast.

But I don’t own a blow gun.

Lowe’s Motor Speedway President H.A. “Humpy” Wheeler picked Jimmie Johnson in his annual prediction on the winner of the NASCAR Nextel All-Star Challenge.

The people who keep score for Wheeler say he has been right 10 times in 18 years.

I’ve been trying to pick Nextel Cup race winners for more than 10 seasons now, and I doubt I’ve been right more than about 10 times – total.

Now I am not saying Wheeler isn’t better at this game that I am. Most fourth-graders would be, I think.

That’s why I absolutely refuse to worry about this year’s picks. But this is fair warning; put stock in these at your own risk.

I like Kyle Busch for the NASCAR Nextel All-Star Challenge.

First, he’s a Hendrick Motorsports driver, and that seems to be a good thing to be this season. Second, the all-star race this year is four 20-lap segments with no inversions between any of the segments. A lot of the sport’s veterans are better on long runs, but there won’t be any in this year’s race.

It’s set up for a young gun, and Busch usually comes out blazing.

As for the Coca-Cola 600, give me Jimmie Johnson.

Johnson and Kasey Kahne have won every points race at LMS in the past three years, and Kahne is not having the kind of year he had when he swept the two races last year.

In his past eight Charlotte starts, Johnson’s worst finish is third. Hey, I might be bad at this, but I’m not stupid.

The rest of the events:

¢ Pit crew challenge: Matt Kenseth’s No. 17 team. This is an underrated event, and the format gets tweaked every year. Each year, the format seems to favor guys who excel at one or two key positions. It seems to me, though, that if you have to pick one pit crew you ought to take Kenseth’s crew.

¢ Nextel Open: Jamie McMurray and Clint Bowyer. Two guys advance into the main event, one after the first 20-lap segment and another after 20 more laps. McMurray and Bowyer seem to be the two guys who don’t already have all-star slots who will be in this event.

¢ Quaker Steak & Lube 200: Johnny Benson. After his team used a driver without a NASCAR license during Truck series testing last Thursday, it will need first-place money to pay the fine.

¢ Carquest 300: Denny Hamlin. He’s going to win a lot of races in a lot of places before he’s through driving in all of NASCAR’s series. This will be one of them.