Archive for Friday, June 8, 2007

Mortgage reform not likely this year

Market self-correcting, and economy isn’t at risk, analysts say

June 8, 2007


— Homeowners unable to pay monthly mortgage bills and facing foreclosure shouldn't count on help from Washington this year.

Regulators and lawmakers seem to be taking a wait-and-see approach as they confront the fallout from several years of lenders making too many home loans to people with inadequate credit.

It would be a mistake to overreact to a market that is already showing signs of self-correcting at a time when little evidence has emerged that the broader economy is at risk, according to regulators and some lawmakers. They also note that consumer spending remains solid, the nation's jobless rate is still low and stock indexes have hit record highs in reaction to strong corporate profits.

"We have an obligation to prevent fraud and abusive lending," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech Tuesday. "At the same time, we must tread carefully so as not to suppress responsible lending or eliminate refinancing opportunities for subprime borrowers."

Homes sales numbers expected

Consumer advocates, who see a rare opportunity to strengthen lending laws, say that represents a misguided optimism, and point to housing statistics as proof that action is warranted.

The National Association of Realtors said this week that it expects sales of existing homes to drop 4.6 percent this year to 6.2 million while the median home price is expected to fall 1.3 percent to $219,000. It would be the first annual drop since the trade group began keeping records in the 1960s.

The foreclosure rate nationwide is rising at an annual rate double that of two years ago. Nearly 2 million adjustable-rate mortgages are forecast to reset at higher rates over the next two years, suggesting the foreclosure rate has not peaked.

Action needed, others argue

If the prospect of soaring foreclosures doesn't motivate Congress "to take firm and deliberate action, I don't know what on this God's earth will," says John Taylor, president of the Washington-based National Community Reinvestment Coalition, which advocates for low-income and minority groups.

However, John Robbins, chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association, predicts foreclosures among borrowers with the riskiest credit will amount to 0.25 percent of U.S. mortgages.

"No seismic financial occurrence is about to overwhelm the U.S. economy," Robbins said in a speech last month.

Lenders say they are working to assist homeowners. After attending a "homeownership preservation summit" called by Sen. Christopher Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat who is chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, big lenders, including Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. and mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, agreed to help borrowers modify loan terms before they reset to higher rates.

Citing Dodd's summit, Mark Adelson, an analyst with Nomura Securities in New York, warned that the housing market would be hurt if some banks overzealously arranged loan workouts.

"Lending money is not about being nice," Adelson said. "It's a business."


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