For a number of years, Lawrence and Douglas County have had the luxury of assuming that revenue to fund next year’s budget will be higher than what they had for the current year.

This year, however, officials were reminded not to assume too much. When property tax and sales tax collections fell below the projections used in the 2007 budget, the city was forced to cut about $3.5 million from its operating budget. The cuts included the elimination of one job and reduced funding to social service agencies that receive city funds.

Despite what happened this year, however, City Manager David Corliss prepared a 2008 budget based on the assumption that sales tax revenue would increase by 3.5 percent next year. Optimism is great, but those who collect and allocate taxpayer money need to be realistic.

Lawrence’s population is relatively stable and no new major retail outlets have been built. The city is seeing increased competition from new shopping areas in nearby Wyandotte County. Why would we assume that local sales tax collections would increase by 3.5 percent?

One obvious reason is that it makes it easier to balance the city’s budget, but if the revenue doesn’t materialize, commissioners will have to deal with the difficult prospect of making budget cuts down the road.

County Administrator Craig Weinaug chose to take a conservative approach to the county’s budget by assuming no increase in sales tax revenue this year. County commissioners thought that was a little too pessimistic (and also are focused on avoiding a property tax increase) so they told Weinaug to build in a 1.75 percent growth rate.

Some city commissioners are thinking the 3.5 percent increase used by Corliss may be a bit optimistic, and Corliss conceded that his initial estimate was at “the outer limit of what we’re comfortable with” and that “maybe we need to be more in the middle.”

Most local taxpayers probably would agree that “more in the middle” would be a prudent approach. Budgeting involves a certain amount of guesswork, but especially in light of this year’s cuts, it would seem better to risk having a little left over in the city treasury next year rather than face the possibility of more midyear cuts.

Instead of using lower revenue estimates as an excuse to raise property or sales taxes, city officials also should try to match the county’s effort to cut its budget to meet a realistic revenue projection.