When a series of fortuitous circumstances put Kansas City into the postseason and matched the Chiefs with Indianapolis, it almost certainly guaranteed one thing in their game today: a lot of points.

These teams, after all, met three years ago in a playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium in which there were no punts. The Colts won that one, 38-31.

This could be the same kind of contest when they begin the four-game wild-card weekend.

The Indianapolis run defense was by far the worst in the league, allowing 173 yards a game. The Chiefs have Larry Johnson, the NFL’s second-leading rusher with 1,789 yards.

Nonetheless, Indianapolis is favored by 61â2 points, largely because it is 8-0 at home and has Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison to match anything Johnson can do – even though the Chiefs’ defense under Herman Edwards is certainly better than it was in January 2004. For those who dabble in such things, the over-under is 51, a very reachable figure unless the Chiefs keep the clock running with their rushing game.

Funny thing about the Colts: Nobody expects much of them this year, unlike last season, when they entered the playoffs as the top seed in the AFC. So maybe they’ll go farther than most people believe.

“I think we’re definitely under the radar,” Tony Dungy says of his team. “But that’s not really a good thing. Usually when everyone thinks you’re playing well, it’s because you are.”

Indianapolis certainly isn’t playing well on defense

But the Colts are home.

COLTS, 31-27.

Dallas (plus 3) at Seattle

The Cowboys are playing badly – the defense allowed 39 points to Detroit last week. The Seahawks are playing better, perhaps in time for a push back to the Super Bowl in a conference where nobody stands out.

Seattle is short at cornerback. But given Tony Romo’s recent struggles, can he exploit that weakness?

SEAHAWKS, 29-24.

New York Jets (plus 9) at New England

Big spread considering the Jets won in Foxborough on Nov. 12. But listen to Laveranues Coles: “I didn’t really want to play them in the first round,” the Jets’ standout wide receiver says. “They’re the last team you want to see in the playoffs.”

Still, pupil Eric Mangini, who gets under the skin of mentor Bill Belichick, will keep it close.

PATRIOTS, 20-16

New York Giants (plus 61â2) at Philadelphia

The Giants were better and healthier when they beat the Eagles at Philadelphia in the second week of the season. And Andy Reid has decided running works as well as passing. So this will be Tiki Barber’s last game and perhaps Tom Coughlin’s.

EAGLES, 31-13.