There are 119 Division I-A football programs. This year, 11 of them have new coaches, which is actually light compared to the turnover that goes on in a lot of offseasons.

Change occurs for various reasons. At Kansas State and Wisconsin, legends retired. At Temple and Buffalo, new blood was desperately needed. At Northwestern, a coach passed away suddenly. At Boise State, well, their man (Dan Hawkins) left to take over at Colorado. Sometimes, it’s like a roulette wheel. Like Dennis Erickson, who is back for his second stint at Idaho.

And you can’t always tell the players without a scorecard. Quick, who’s the coach at Duke? C’mon, this is his fourth year. If you guessed Ted Roof, proceed to the head of the class.

Which brings us to 2006. One of the rites of fall is to project which coaches might not be back when 2007 rolls around. It’s hardly an exact science.

A little more than two years ago, Tommy Tuberville apparently came dangerously close to becoming the ex-Auburn coach. Yet not only did he survive, but he proceeded to guide the Tigers to a perfect record the very next season. So sometimes you have to be careful what you project.

In other situations, though, things can be pretty much a given. Like Bob Davie at Notre Dame. Or was that Ty Willingham? Anyway, here’s a look at a few of the guys who might want to have a really successful season, just in case.

Lloyd Carr, Michigan

A national title only goes so far. And it’s been nearly a decade now anyway. He’s 1-4 against Ohio State’s Jim Tressel, which might be the only numbers that are relevant. And this November he has to go to Columbus.

Phil Fulmer, Tennessee

He won it all in 1998. And has won a bunch of games since. But the Vols have had some off-field problems, the recruiting’s a little off, and they went 5-6 in 2005. Not a healthy trifecta.

Larry Coker, Miami

Didn’t he used to be the guy who won his first 24 games? Nice guy, too. But he’s lost nine in three-plus seasons since then, including three in each of the last two seasons.

John L. Smith, Michigan St.

His teams usually win early, lose late. Bad pattern. The Spartans went 5-6 in 2005, after winning their first four. Probably needs to go to a bowl game, maybe even a decent one.

Dennis Franchione, Texas A&M

He got it done at New Mexico, TCU and then Alabama. In three years in College Station, he’s 16-19. The Aggies lost their last four in 2005, and finished 5-6. The non-Big 12 schedule is a joke. They could be 9-0 when they host Oklahoma on Nov. 4. So average is really not an option.