Exit strategy will involve more U.S. troops

The makings of an exit strategy from Iraq have now come into view – and I am not talking about cutting and running or setting an arbitrary deadline for withdrawal.

Wins by Democrats in the U.S. Congress and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s impending departure have set the stage for a sensible, pragmatic solution, one that serves U.S. interests and preserves the promise of the new Iraq. Here is a seven-point plan on how to proceed:

1. The incoming secretary of defense, former CIA director Robert Gates, should summon his top advisers and military commanders in Iraq and ask a direct question: Do you have the troops and resources to finish the job?

If they responded truthfully, the answer would be no, because the U.S. military has lacked sufficient capabilities for the bulk of the U.S.-led intervention. President George W. Bush – who repeatedly has said that he makes decisions about troop levels in Iraq based on the measured judgment of U.S. military commanders – would no longer have an excuse to dither.

For the past two years, I have pushed for more troops – at least 100,000 – in Iraq. The goal is not to place additional Americans in harm’s way, but to offer better protection to those who are already there, lock down the problem spots and increase the chances for a peaceful outcome.

American allies in Iraq, friendly neighboring countries and other suitable parties should join the United States in shouldering that responsibility, although, if no takers materialized, Washington would have to act on its own.

2. Gates, flanked by the brass, should approach the new Congress with his request for more troops and resources. A knee-jerk expectation would have the Democratic majority blinking in disbelief and saying no.

If they were intent on demonstrating wise use of their recently acquired power, though, the Democrats would approve the troop expansion in the interest of hastening the opportunity for a dignified exit, as well as one that leaves Iraq in better shape than it was under dictatorship. As a demonstration of the U.S. commitment, at least 50,000 additional troops should be directed to Iraq as soon as possible.

3. Gates should make clear that the Department of Defense alone cannot resolve the Iraq conundrum. It needs the expanded support of all federal agencies, not just in Washington but in Iraq itself.

4. Gates should work more extensively with his Iraqi counterpart to accelerate recruitment and training of Iraqi troops. In addition, many Iraqis believe that unleashing Iraqi troops against the various insurgencies would produce their demise within months. That may be overly optimistic, but it would not hurt to broaden the use of the Iraqi military.

5. Gates should engage NATO with an urgent message: The kind of commitment you have shown in Afghanistan is required in Iraq. NATO’s contributions to Iraq – in the areas of training and equipment – have been useful but insufficient. It is time to expand that mission to include combat responsibilities.

NATO has a special obligation here. The longer it waits, the greater the possibility that the political, ideological and religious turmoil swarming around Iraq will spread to Europe.

6. Gates should lead an effort to reach out to countries such as Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to organize a Muslim peacekeeping force to supplement other military undertakings in Iraq. Such a force would also diminish the effect of the potent anti-Western propaganda that insurgents in Iraq use to their advantage.

7. Gates should ask Bush to follow through with his original campaign promise to build the appropriate U.S. military for the 21st century. For Iraq and other challenges, that necessitates more troops, somewhere in the range of 60,000 to 75,000, especially those with the skills and technologies to work in the unconventional environments that modern conflict produces.

Again, the military alone does not hold the answer to Iraq’s future. But stronger military efforts in Iraq would deliver the orderly setting that is needed for overall success, potentially as early as the end of next year.

In that event, Americans could talk seriously about starting a phased withdrawal of U.S. troops and look forward to a day, perhaps a half-decade from now, when a free and stable Iraq can stand on its own.