One month down, and five to go.

April is about to be a memory, and that gives baseball fans just five short months left to enjoy the season.

A lot of things can happen between now and the end of September. Albert Pujols could go in a slump; the Orioles could find a stable stable of middle relievers; and Tampa Bay Devil Rays prospect Delmon Young could play again in 2006.

Or not.

Plenty of surprising story lines have emerged in the first month, as they always do. Whether teams and players will keep the momentum going, however, is what makes baseball fun all year long.

Here’s a look at the staying power of April happenings with the soon-to-be trademarked “Connolly’s Fluke Factor Rating.”

For those new to the rating system sweeping the nation (which would be everyone), a CFFR of 1 means an ironclad, Devil-Rays-in-the-basement lock to happen. A CFFR of 10 is a finger-wagging, Congressional-hearing-promise fallacy that will flop like Mark Buehrle in a rain delay.

FLUKE RATING: 8: The Cincinnati Reds are pennant contenders.

Every year a few unexpected teams start out hot and then wilt as the season unfolds (for a textbook example, see Orioles, Baltimore, 2005). No one is suggesting that this year’s Reds will experience staph infections, steroid scandals and locust infestations the way last season’s Orioles did. But it’s hard to believe that the Reds can survive with a pitching staff that has a collective 5.06 ERA over its first 22 games. The offense is explosive, but you need to pitch to win late. So Reds fans should enjoy the early run.

Cincinnati's Brandon Phillips watches the Reds' 5-4 victory over Houston in this photo from Fridayy's game in Cincinnati. Phillips, who had three hits in that game, has made the most of his opportunity with the team.

FLUKE RATING: 4: Greg Maddux is Greg Maddux again.

It’s difficult to explain why Maddux, after a season in which he posted his fewest wins and highest ERA in 19 years, would be so unhittable early. The guy even fanned seven Reds earlier this month. Then again, Maddux’s mastery has been somewhat of a mystery for almost two decades. When he’s on, he’s the ultimate baseball artisan. So it’s tough to bet against him.

FLUKE RATING: 2: The Chicago White Sox are better than last year.

Print the playoff tickets. This club is the New England Patriots of MLB. The White Sox are so balanced that they can absorb injuries and don’t need all their players clicking at once to win. The back end of the bullpen might still hurt them over time, and the AL Central is much tougher, but the additions of Jim Thome and Javier Vazquez have made a great team better.

FLUKE RATING: 5: Miguel Tejada will win the AL batting title.

On April 2, this was a whopping 10.5 on the meter. But then the season started and the real Miggy stepped forward. The Orioles shortstop and leader looked terrible with the glove at the WBC and bad all-around in spring training. But as soon as the games started to count, Tejada snapped back into his excellent play. Only special players can turn on the talent like that. And Tejada is a special player.

FLUKE RATING: 7: The Kansas City Royals are historically bad.

The Royals are bad. Really bad. But are they 1899 Cleveland Spiders (20-134) bad? Or even 1962 New York Mets (40-120) bad? Probably not. True, they lost 15 of their first 20 games, putting them on pace to challenge the ’62 Mets for the worst winning percentage in the past 60-plus years. They’re 0-9 on the road and already have suffered through an 11-game losing streak. Still, it’s hard to believe that they can’t win at least 40 more games this year or hit more homers than Albert Pujols. Heck, the Pittsburgh Pirates could out-lose the Royals.

FLUKE RATING: 1: Albert Pujols is baseball’s best player.

This was pretty apparent last year after his NL MVP-winning performance. But Alex Rodriguez, the AL MVP, had to be in the discussion. And it seemed cruel to leave Barry Bonds out while he was rehabilitating his knee and psyche. But now Bonds is back and is obviously in too much pain to regain the title. And although A-Rod has done nothing to diminish his status, Pujols has been Triple Crown-worthy, and he just turned 26. Based on the statistics of his first 22 games, the St. Louis Cardinals first baseman is projected to hit 88 homers with 214 RBIs and a .342 average. OK, so that’s probably stretching it a bit. He’ll have 200 RBIs – tops.

FLUKE RATING: 10: The Yankees will continue to hover around .500.

As much as the rest of the non-pinstriped world would like to see a collapse, the Yankees will be in the playoff hunt again. They started out slowly last year, remember. And already this team has pitched much better than in 2005, with an ERA of 3.50 through its first 20 games. It’s only a matter of time before the Yankees find themselves in their customary spot atop the AL East.

¢ It’s not an official statistic or something the Elias Sports Bureau can research. But it’s possible Cincinnati Reds infielder Brandon Phillips has had the craziest month in the history of baseball.

He batted .316 in the spring, but was out of minor-league options, and the Cleveland Indians didn’t have room for him. So he was designated for assignment on April 1. Phillips, 24, went home to Georgia and worked out with his high school baseball team. Meanwhile, MLB’s regular season started.

There were plenty of suitors for the once-heralded prospect.

On April 7, Phillips was dealt to the Reds for a player to be named later. It was a strange fit. The Reds already had All-Star shortstop Felipe Lopez and three second basemen: Ryan Freel, Rich Aurilia and Tony Womack.

When center fielder Ken Griffey injured his knee, Freel moved to the outfield and, with Aurilia playing primarily first base, Phillips and Womack were left to battle for second.

Phillips seized the opportunity. In a seven-game stretch from April 17 to 23, Phillips batted .451 with four multi-hit games, three homers and 17 RBIs – the most by a Red in one week since Ray Knight in 1979.

He went from scrap heap to the league’s Player of the Week in a blink.

“I really enjoyed it and I am very thankful for the week,” Phillips said. “But now I have to go back to baseball and try to have another one.”

¢ When the Boston Red Sox traded Doug Mirabelli, they had to find a new personal catcher for knuckleball pitcher Tim Wakefield. They chose 28-year-old Josh Bard. He may turn 48 before the season’s over.

Bard already has 10 passed balls, including four Wednesday (which was two short of tying the MLB record of six in a game). The all-time passed-ball record in a season is 35, set in 1987.

“I’m not down on (Bard),” said Wakefield, who is 1-4 with a 3.90 ERA in five starts. “He’s not the reason I’m losing, so get off him right now.”