After a spurt of good fortune, the fledgling U.S. ethanol industry is anticipating some growing pains that could bring it unwanted attention this summer.
Ethanol's public profile rose significantly for the better last July when Congress passed an energy bill that mandates the doubling of biofuels output by 2012. In January, President Bush gave the industry a further boost with a strong endorsement in his State of the Union speech. And with the imminent phaseout of a petrochemical added to gasoline to reduce tailpipe emissions, more U.S. motorists will depend on the corn-derived fuel than ever before.
But there's trouble looming: The ethanol industry might not be ready to satisfy the expected summertime jump in demand. And by crimping the overall supply of motor fuel, this could contribute to a spike in gasoline pump prices at the start of the country's peak driving season.
That, at least, is the view of the Energy Department, which issued a report last month detailing the challenges midwestern ethanol producers will have in getting their fuel to key markets along the East Coast because of railroad, trucking and other distribution bottlenecks. The report also highlighted concerns about the limited output capacity of an industry still in its infancy.
The Renewable Fuels Assn., a trade group representing ethanol producers such as Archer Daniels Midland Co. and Pacific Ethanol Inc., says the industry's challenges and their influence on gasoline prices are being overblown. The association sent an angry letter to the Energy Department last week, questioning the overall thoroughness of its research and accusing it of creating "unnecessary fears in the marketplace."
Still, ethanol-related worries hang over the U.S. market, contributing to a 42-cent-per-gallon increase in unleaded gasoline futures since mid-February. There are other factors behind the recent wholesale gasoline price spike, including soaring oil prices, strong demand and persistent strains on the U.S. refining system.
The average retail price of gasoline in the United States is $2.51 a gallon - the highest level since October - and some analysts say $3 is a possibility by summer.
Wholesale prices for ethanol, meanwhile, have surged to roughly $2.75 a gallon, or about 50 cents per gallon higher than usual, according to the Oil Price Information Service of Wall, N.J. Because ethanol makes up one-tenth of every gallon of unleaded gasoline with which it is blended, this windfall for ethanol producers ends up costing motorists an extra 5 cents per gallon at the pump.
High prices will spur more ethanol production - there are 33 new plants under construction - but some minor near-term complications can be expected due to the rapid increase in demand, said Bob Dinneen, president of the Renewable Fuels Assn. and author of the letter sent to the Energy Department.
Dinneen said the industry was taking steps to mitigate the problems, such as filling ethanol storage tanks on the East Coast before summer arrives and contracting barges that can ship ethanol down the Mississippi River and then up the Atlantic seaboard.