New York ? This year’s hurricane season will be more active than normal but not as busy as last year’s, and the Northeast will be hit by a major hurricane within five years, a private forecaster predicted Monday.

Experts at AccuWeather, based in State College, Pa., predicted this year’s hurricane season won’t quite top last year’s record number of named storms and 14 hurricanes.

A normal season consists of 11 named storms, with five or six hurricanes, said Ken Reeves, senior meteorologist and director of the company’s forecast operations. The season runs from May 15 to Nov. 30.

The National Weather Service counted 27 named storms last year.

The AccuWeather meteorologists also stressed that the Northeast is overdue for a “powerful hurricane.” Weather cycles and above-normal ocean temperatures make it a question of when, not if, they said.