Population dip
Local officials can't shrug off new population figures that show a small reversal in Lawrence's growth trend.
After years of planning how, where and when to grow, Lawrence is getting a wakeup call. For the first time in 30 years, the U.S. Census Bureau says the annual population figures for Lawrence are down, not by much, but down.
Figures released Wednesday show that 26 fewer people lived in Lawrence in July 2005 than lived here in July 2004. A decline of less than one-tenth of 1 percent may seem insignificant, but after many years of growth averaging about 2 percent a year, any decline should get the attention of city officials.
For some officials, that attention came in the form of apparent denial. David Guntert, who tracks population numbers for the Lawrence-Douglas County Planning Department, looked at the Census numbers and flatly declared “I’m confident they’re off base.”
Guntert based his judgment primarily on the number of new living units being built in Lawrence. People wouldn’t still be building new houses and apartments if people weren’t going to live in them, right? Not necessarily. Some landlords are reporting higher vacancy rates, and Realtors are noticing that some houses are staying on the market longer than they were a year ago. Enrollment in Lawrence schools also has declined in recent years.
The Census Bureau’s figures might not be right on target, but if officials were willing to accept earlier reports of population gains in Lawrence, they also should take seriously the new report of a population loss.
The high cost of real estate and the overall cost of living in Lawrence is not a new concern. It should come as no surprise to local officials that many families are buying houses in neighboring small towns because they can get more for their money and still be close to the amenities Lawrence offers.
That works for their budgets, but it doesn’t work for Lawrence’s budget. The city is facing a number of large infrastructure demands, including a new sewer treatment plant and rebuilding numerous city streets. If the property tax base in Lawrence quits growing, it will be difficult, if not impossible, to meet those demands without large tax increases.
For years, Lawrence has talked about the problems or challenges associated with growth, but as Interim City Manager Dave Corliss reminded us in Wednesday’s Journal-World, “A community that doesn’t grow will have a new set of challenges that, I think, in all instances are worse than the challenges a growing community faces.”
The worst thing local officials could do with the latest population figures is to ignore them. A decline of 26 people in Lawrence’s population certainly isn’t catastrophic, but it is a stark reminder that Lawrence’s future growth and prosperity is far from certain – especially if the city complacently rests on its laurels.

