Welcome to our online chat with Xan Wedel about latest U.S. Census figures.

The chat took place on Thursday, June 22, at 1:30 PM and is now closed, but you can read the full transcript on this page.

Moderator: Hello and welcome to our chat today with Xan Wedel, information specialist for the Policy Research Institute at Kansas University.

Xan is here today to take questions about the new sub-county population estimates for 2005 that were released this week by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The big news for Lawrence was that the population seemed to leveling out or even dropping slightly after years of steady 2 percent per year growth.

Xan thanks for coming in and talking with our readers today. We have a lot of questions, so we’ll go ahead and get started.

Len, Lawrence: What year did the census first begin?

Xan Wedel: The first U.S. Census was conducted in 1790.

Xan Wedel answers reader's questions online.

Gregg from Lawrence: Hi Xan,

I was wondering how these annual “estimates” are conducted or what they are based on. – Thanks.

Xan Wedel: The sub-county population estimates that were released yesterday are based on a housing unit distribution method from the county population estimates that are produced based on components of population change (births, deaths, and migration).

Kirk McClure, Lawrence: Please tell us how the Census Bureau makes its projections. I understand that tax returns are used. Can you comment on the correlation between taxpaying households and population?

Xan Wedel: The Census Bureau has been using administrative records to improve and supplement their surveys without the increased cost of field follow-up. The administrative records in use do include tax records. I would need to check with the Census population division to find out if tax records are being used in the projections.

Libby, Lawrence: Is this the first time Lawrence’s population has decreased since it was founded?

Xan Wedel: I have population data for Lawrence back to 1900. With these data this is the first decline for Lawrence. I would like to mention that the drop of 26 people between the 2004 and 2005 population estimates is likely not significant and well within the margin of error for these data.

David / Lawrence: A related article in the “Dallas Morning News” the National Census Bureau indicates a trend of people leaving northern cities and moving to the South and West. Do you think this will impact Kansas, and if so how? Will we start to see a population growth (statewide) or will we continue to decline?

Xan Wedel: Kansas has seen a population growth (1.9% from July 2000 to July 2005). There does appear to be a trend across the U.S. of people leaving large, urban-core cities and moving to smaller cities and towns near large cities. In Kansas, we are seeing this same trend. Smaller towns like Goddard, Spring Hill, Gardner, Basehor, and Tonganoxie showed significant growth in the recent data. Each of these town is near a large city much like the national trend.

Mike, Tecumseh: Why does the Census do the sub-county estimates? How does that tie in with its role providing an accurate census each decade for political redistricting?

Xan Wedel: The Census Bureau is required by law to conduct the decennial census for reapportionment purposes. The sub-county population estimates are developed for use by state and local governments, policy makers, and researchers. These data users rely on consistent, quality estimates to use in decision making.

Cheri, Lawrence: Does the Census show income level data for each city? What is the median for Lawrence? Thank you

Xan Wedel: The decennial census has reported the median income level for cities in the past. The most recent data for Lawrence will be from the Census 2000. Starting in 2005, the American Community Survey (ACS) was conducted in every county in the U.S. This new Census program will be replacing the long-form information previously collected with the decennial census. ACS data for Lawrence will be released later this year with economic characteristics expected in November.

Moderator: How do building permits tie in with the sub-county estimates?

Xan Wedel: Building permits are used to distribute the county-level estimates to sub-county areas. According the the Census Bureau, Lawrence has seen a decrease in the past two years in the total number of new privately-owned residential building permits. Most significantly, the two-family (duplex) structures have decreased dramatically.

Jim Kimmell, Lawrence: Is the reason that Lawrence’s population declined perhaps that with two first round exits by the KU Men’s Basketball team, no one wants to live with a bunch of losers?

Xan Wedel: Win or lose – the Jayhawks are still #1!

Moderator: That will be our last question for the day. Thanks Xan for coming in and sharing information about the figures.

Xan Wedel: Thank you for inviting me.